To put differently, they all recognize something needs to be done and they all want someone else to do it.

And if history is any guide, it means nobody does anything beyond sending more money and we know that much of that money inevitably ends up financing the Hamas military machine.

You could argue until you’re blue in the face that we will do better this time but Israel can justifiably say “fool me once… fool me twice… fool me thrice… we’ve had it.”

The question of Israelis wanting a Gaza op to continue until:

-All 120 are returned or rescued
-Hamas is effectively replaced

Isn't a shocking discovery in a post Oct 7 world. Nobody wants the last 8 months to be for nothing. Nobody wants the 120 to stay there. So in some capacity, it's going to go on. Btw with the tunnels they found in Rafah, wonder how many of the 120 are completely out and in totally different countries now.

Thanks for clarifying. How do you think UNRWA directly contributed to Hamas attacking Israel? (I am not trying to suggest that they did not by asking this.)

The UNRWA funding is not going to be on the same level as the rebuilding of Gaza would require. Countries will need to invest far more heavily in order to accomplish that, and I am not convinced that they will just shrug at the bill if they think Hamas or another group is going to commit another terrorist attack resulting in their investments being destroyed.



No one wants to govern Gaza, I agree. I think it's some time off still, it is early in negotiations and USA has a lot more leverage to use for this situation.

Hamas was conducting terrorist operations out in the open for twenty plus years with rocket launches and training camps and everyone knew they were diverting most of the aid to fund their military machinery.

We even allowed their hateful propaganda to proliferate in UNRWA schools. (Which to me is an even bigger problem long term than weapons storage).

A bigger and even more well funded version of UNRWA will still need to collaborate with Hamas or it just won’t be allowed to operate, unless we get boots on the ground to make Hamas cooperate.

Meanwhile Hamas is attacking crossings so Israel can’t send aid in. This is completely on brand. Hamas has consistently said no to aid unless it can distribute the aid itself and take credit for it.

Yeah it's not the 19th century anymore, modern nations are far less interested in running colonial projects.

Everyone knows Hamas had close to complete control of aid distribution in Gaza. Which means they directly stole a lot of stuff (reselling that to finance their military capacity to strike Israel), and directed the rest to loyalists, building a base of support (which helps when you want to organize military strikes).

If you give to a kid in the street which you know has a criminal father who will take all the money from him, after a while you can be considered responsible for directly financing the criminal father, no matter how much you want to help the kid

Grizy: I was under the impression that most of Hamas's military equipment was from Iran.



As you mention in your last sentence, UNRWA's helping Hamas was inevitable under that framework. I believe in changing the framework so its not inevitable. I think countries that will be investing in Gaza will want to change the framework as well or else this is going to become a worse problem requiring even more money to fix.




Luciom: I would not consider that direct aid, I think it's also questionable how much of that was a "collaboration".

Hamas has no friends and Iran isn’t interested in putting its neck on the line for Hamas. I’d be surprised if even a handful is out of Gaza.

Again, everyone recognizes a change is necessary.

They just all want someone else to do it. And historically that means nobody does anything.

I think this is demonstrably untrue. The Northern front persist with daily attacks and thwarted attacks, specifically because of Iran. Same is true of the drone attacks being launched from proxies in the other fronts. These fronts amplified as soon as Oct 7th happened, which certainly implies a level of coordination.

I'm not saying there are hostages in Iran. But a few in Egypt or Sudan? Wouldn't be shocked.

The only thing I know Iran doesn't want, is open direct war with the West. But anything that advances the proxy fronts is exactly what they want. And Khomeini thanking the campus students directly for joining the resistance shows how interconnected all these events are, at a big picture view. At its heart, it's still a war against western ideas.

I think we're aligned. A small handful outside of Gaza is possible but anything beyond that would require high level blessing that I don't think any government is interested in giving.

What is happening in the "northern front" is more kabuki theatre than anything else. Hezbollah has repeatedly telegraphed its unwillingness to escalate and is just making symbolic gestures to appease its hardliners and Iran.

That Israel has been under such constant attack for decades that rocket/mortar fire on its civilians amounts to symbolic gestures is emblematic of much larger problems but is not a sign Hezbollah is actually a friend of Hamas, at least not beyond a "enemy of my enemy" context.

I agree with the wider point that Iran wants to embroider the West and Israel in conflict broadly as long as it doesn't translate into open war with Iran. Where we probably disagree is Iran's risk appetite. I think they have already been telegraphing they want to backdown but are having trouble leashing their dogs in Yemen and Gaza.

After you know perfectly well what the criminal father does, and victims of the criminal father ask you to stop donating to the kid, how is it different from direct aid and why is it no collaboration with the criminal father?

There is a strong coercion aspect to this. If it still classifies as "collaboration" then fine, but it deserves a big asterisk.

I think what you're calling Kabuki theatre is actually a long protracted war of attrition, and one that Israel cannot afford to be in. They can't afford to keep the North evacuated much longer. They can't afford their agricultural sector to stay decimated. And Hezbollah very much can and will drag this out for the death by 1000 cuts approach. Hezbollah is everything that Hamas are not, and in the worst possible ways. Their weapons and training are much more sophisticated, and when that front becomes THE front, Israel will suffer very high loses. And to be clear it's a front because Hezbollah is violating 1701 (for anyone not following that close). https://peacemaker.un.org/israellebanon-resolution1701

Kids have to be back in school by Fall. The army isn't ready for that front yet (or it would have happened). But if they don't get the North open again this summer, it'll be another lost year for those families. That's not theatre, that's real life. And we can skip the "ok but what about Gaza?" posts. We are all we aware of Gaza itt. Nobody is ignoring Gaza. Adults are discussing another topic here because it came up.

This is a big part of why Israel needed a political solution with international backing. Instead of losing so much support they could have galvanised political support. No more attacks on israel could have been a rallying cry for international support.

It's never too late to try but so much harder now.