Margin in swing states in the Rust belt was almost exactly the same as in 2016. Biden is going to get two more electoral votes than Trump did in 2016.

Biden won the popular vote by 4.5%, which is twice HRC's margin. It requires something close to a miracle for a candidate to win the electoral college with that wide a margin in the popular vote.

A lot you will know, just tales of pettiness, vindictiveness, and lack of any moral or ethical compass, all peppered with lots of terrible, terrible ideas.

A few I hadn't heard before:
How DonJr is supposedly as stupid as is rumored (Cohen seems to spend the start of his Trump career cleaning up after him). However, DonJr also hated the business and originally wanted to escape it all and just do something like raise cattle and hunt in the middle of nowhere, but was told if he didn't join he'd be completely cut off . He got/gets constantly insulted and berated by Trump for being stupid, who is also upset he shared his name with a 'loser'.

Trump World Tower has 72 floors yet the elevators go up to 90.

Trump's racism. Saying 'there was no way he'd let that black f+g win' one of the series of the Apprentice. Also that South Africa has once been a beautiful, great country 20-30 years ago (so apartheid) and then Mandela had come along a fckd it all up, and was no leader. His hate for Obama seems pretty much psychotic, even before he was insulted at the dinner!

I'm sure most of what Cohen says about Trump and his family are true. But it's good to remember that Cohen is himself a terrible person, just like Trump.

I remember listening to many of the talking heads experts talking about Hilary's almost 3MM Popular vote total and if it was to get to 4-5MM for Biden there was almost no math that could see Trump win.

They just felt the assumptions about the percent gains in already Dem strongholds would get ridiculously improbable and thus the gains would have to come in other areas (swing States and GOP areas) thus making a Electoral College win assured.



Bidens popular vote total is over 7MM or ~2.5X Hilary's total and yet just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College.

So obviously, despite the other Stats that cement Biden with a comparatively big win, this election was hairline close where it truly mattered.

None of the other stats matter if Trump merely got out 50k more voters in those key places. And had he got those 50k it would have only served as a thumb in the eye to the other stats which would have been trumpeted as to why the Electoral College was so flawed.

If there is not come reform done here, The Dems will lose a lot more elections, 'close' or 'not' due to this bias.

Yeh he openly admits of being a soulless scumbag, however when it comes to Trump stories I'm sure they're true, perhaps slightly embellished. It's interesting to get into the mindset of an obvious intelligent individual who openly admits to have completely fallen under Trump's 'spell', that half the US also seems to have done, and the the other half are completely baffled by.

Where I don't trust him is regarding his ties with mob. He says a lot about how the media played it up for the story, which I definitely believe. However, I do think he downplays his actual connections quite a bit.

Getting it in good?

Never placed a bet but would put a lot of money down now.

I am pretty sure there would be all sorts of delusion Trumpsters willing to take bets TODAY that Trump will prevail and continue as POTUS due to their ingestion of rightwing media spin.

Has anyone checked if any Book is running this line currently as I would put a lot of money on it, even at long odds. But i would be surprised if the more zealous Trumpsters would not take it at even money.

I booked this today in sports betting

Yeah, I see a ton of people in the media comparing margins in the tipping point states in 2020 vs 2016 and saying "well, 2020 wasn't THAT much more of a comfortable win than 2016" but that's an error in conditional probability and data analysis imo. In 2016, if you knew how every state voted except the tipping point states of PA, MI, and WI it would basically be a coin flip or Trump might be a slight favorite. So it makes sense to say just 30k votes across 3 similar states decided the election. Whereas in 2020 if you knew how every state but GA, AZ and WI voted Biden would be a pretty large favorite. So Trump's easiest path to victory is just improving nationally by 2 or 3 points which isn't that easy. Flipping 30k votes in 3 random states that are not correlated to each other much more than they are to the national popular vote is hard to do without just improving nationally;y and further complicated by the fact that Biden is at or within a point of 50% in all those states.

That is a great bet but why does he just limit it to 'inauguration day'?

If some extreme event was to happen (natural disaster, etc) and it took a day more do you lose? Is his point not that Trump and Co will prevail and Biden/Harris will not be sworn in at all?

I mean I would still take that bet but the 'day' should not be the trigger. Either Trump succeeds and stops them being sworn in and he remains POTUS or he fails. That should be the bet.

No it would not have taken a miracle. It would have taken flipping at most 100k votes out of 120m.

Lol ya acting like the popular vote means anything for who wins the election.

“Long odds” pre election night was like 2.5-1. You think that was good value?

The really long odds weren’t until like the Wednesday or Thursday of that week when they were still taking bets because it wasn’t “called”. You think those people got their money in good?

Actually, it is over 250,000 votes of about 16.5 million total for Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (rust belt states being discussed).

Does not seem that it was that close to me. Obviously it was not close like Gore/Bush, but does not seem that it was even similar to how close Trump/Clinton was as well.

All the best.

What am I missing here as my math says that Trump is POTUS again with 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin as that creates a tie in the Electoral College and Trump wins in any tie.

I just came to say I’m watching snooker on TV and the #1 ranked player is named Trump.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dai...oker-star.html

This has nothing to do with trump. All Las Vegas hotels are like this as well. Have you ever stayed on the 13th floor of a building? Also all the Chinese superstitions involving the number 4.

So much winning with Trump.

Lawmakers criticize Trump's slashed budget for key federal cyber agency

03/11/20

...The bipartisan leaders of the House Homeland Security Committee on Wednesday sharply criticized the proposed drop in funding in President Trump’s budget for the Department of Homeland Security’s cyber agency.

The lawmakers particularly took issue with the proposed funding cut due to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) role as a key federal office tasked with defending the nation against cyber threats like those that can take place during an election.

“Despite bipartisan support for increasing CISA’s cybersecurity budget, the President’s Budget cuts it by about over $150 million,”


But you know, Trump as a great Manager had other priorities. The "Wall".


And why or WHY are Dem's against "Election Security"?

DHS Was Finally Getting Serious About Cybersecurity. Then Came Trump.

12/18/2019

Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen came in with the potential to be the most effective cyber leader in agency history—only to be sideswiped by the president’s fixation on the Mexican border.


...she would go on to describe in stark terms a threat landscape that existed almost entirely online, one that bore little recognition to the threats her department was created to combat in 2003. DHS was founded, Nielsen told lawmakers, “to prevent another 9/11,” but the biggest threat to the country no longer came from al-Qaida and planes in the sky. Instead, she said, “I believe an attack of that magnitude is now more likely to reach us online.”

“[Cyberspace] is now the most active battlefield, and the attack surface extends into almost every American home,” she warned. “We have moved past the ‘epidemic’ stage and are now at a ‘pandemic’ stage—a worldwide outbreak of cyberattacks and cyber vulnerabilities.” She moved to draw particular attention to the new lane DHS was carving for itself, a lane that not even Trump supported: election security. Protecting the country’s election, Nielsen said, “was not a mission envisioned for the department when it was created, but it is now one of my highest priorities.”

NY Post - only the highest journalistic standards.

One of the few I trust

Man Trump bettors are like the guy that calls with pocket 3's on a flop k,k,5 with a bet and a raise in front of them man my pocket 3's must be ahead. Sad the delusion of these people.

And there it is.

People were wondering why heading into the GE it seemed the Dems had so much more money to spend than Trump did, despite Trump raising so much money all the time.

Looks like Jared was doing the Bugs Bunny trick when counting the cash coming in and dolling it out to the campaign and to other 'undisclosed Trump priorities'.


- 1 for you... 1 for me.
- 2 for you... 1, 2 for me.
- 3 for you... 1, 2 3 for me.

Actually, they continued to bet after the river when they lost the hand, then they continued to bet on that hand after the game finished and continued to bet on that 33 hand the next day when the place was closed.

Holy ****, can't he sue for slander?

Well, sure, but they were getting really great odds!