***Election Week Sweat Thread*** (renamed) - Page 5 - Politics and Society -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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***Election Week Sweat Thread*** (renamed)

View Poll Results: Presidential Prediction?

Biden wins a landslide

42 50.00%

Biden ekes it out

29 34.52%

Trump ekes it out

8 9.52%

Trump wins a landslide

5 5.95%

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11-03-2020 , 01:33 PM

#101

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by Natamus

Well respecting you was fun while it lasted!

***Election Week Sweat Thread*** (renamed)

Your Former Friend,
The Non-Violent BLM supporter who was called the N-Word by a Trump supporter in his Condo complex who literally said to me “I will end that BLM N—-er”
In front of my wife and 16-month-old child.

I wouldn't object to that guy being punched in the face. I likewise don't condone violence from the right, at all, in any form -- and that statement is a clear threat.

11-03-2020 , 01:34 PM

#102

Adrenocromo

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 251

Has anybody seen any Russian subversives? Remember what they did 4 years ago!

11-03-2020 , 01:36 PM

#103

GodgersWOAT

banned

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 3,524

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

wat

I think he means violence against Confederate statues.

11-03-2020 , 01:37 PM

#104

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,227

It's the Chinese, Adreno. Chinese. Get back on the R point.

11-03-2020 , 01:39 PM

#105

SpinMeRightRound

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 2,723

Quote:

Originally Posted by LKJ

Interesting thread this morning from Nate Cohn re: RCP averages.

Ok thanks. I'm not quite sure why taking an average of all the polls makes that something you can't trust, but fair enough.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

Gambler punts $5 million on Trump

https://nypost.com/2020/11/03/myster...d-setting-bet/

Didn't Alex Wice say he was betting millions on Trump?

Is that him who placed that bet? If he's betting that much, something tells me Trump will win. No one bets that amount without being sure of winning (unless they're like a billionaire and $5 million is pocket change).

11-03-2020 , 01:44 PM

#106

Bro Sagan

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 552

Biden still holding strong. 97% to win.

https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president

11-03-2020 , 01:46 PM

#107

ligastar

ToP 100 pAsS cAtChErS

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 30,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adrenocromo

Has anybody seen any Russian subversives? Remember what they did 4 years ago!

I don't have a Facebook account, but reports are you can find some there if you were so inclined.

11-03-2020 , 01:46 PM

#108

Slighted

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 16,774

cant believe we dont have the first counties closed itt already..

dixxville/millsfield counties in NH.
total votes-

trump-16
biden-10

2016 was trump 18 clinton 8 apparently.

11-03-2020 , 01:49 PM

#109

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

That's not how it works.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/02/us-ele...ion-in-wagers/

At one site, over 90% of wagers in the last 24 hours were on Trump. These are unsophisticated punters lighting money on fire in a huge liquidity bubble, nothing more.

Without knowing prices, that conclusion is impossible to assess -- isn't it?

11-03-2020 , 01:56 PM

#110

Nepeeme2008

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 2,913

Anybody following Iowa closely? According to polling Trump should win but according to early voting, Biden has a lead

11-03-2020 , 01:56 PM

#111

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,681

Even money would be a dumb bet; I agree. I think we can disagree about whether getting 4:1 would be break even or not.

11-03-2020 , 01:58 PM

#112

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,748

In for lulz

11-03-2020 , 02:03 PM

#113

Inso0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 8,723

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

Pretty much every expert has Trump between 4% and 10% to win.

I've played enough XCOM to know that 4-10% is roughly 40-70%.

Biden is that 95% shot to finish off the Sectopod that's about to wipe my entire squad on Ironman. I know I should be confident, but one can only get burned so many times before yips set in.

11-03-2020 , 02:06 PM

#114

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,227

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inso0

I've played enough XCOM to know that 4-10% is roughly 40-70%.

Any chance you play poker..... for money?

11-03-2020 , 02:12 PM

#115

BreakYaNeck

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 8,187

Just checking in here looking forward to the meltdown.

11-03-2020 , 02:12 PM

#116

Cuepee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 17,339

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Spew

Cuep - Is this a personal attack on Howard? Asking for a friend.....

Hmmm re-reading i do not think so, unless we must 'sanitize' posters or otherwise simply not say things, even if true, if not perceived as nice.

I don't consider posting accurately a posters behaviour and actions personal. It is reporting on what they actually did. The only word in the entire post that I would say could be construed as personal is 'puppet' but what then is the proper and acceptable word for those who 'parrot' Trump and Fox empty points?

Its a sincere question as i will change the wording if that line is made clearer to me?

11-03-2020 , 02:16 PM

#117

razorbacker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 7,366

In the betting markets Trump is now 60-65% favorite to win Florida and 55% in Arizona. Biden has widened his lead overall. That doesn’t add up.

11-03-2020 , 02:18 PM

#118

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

Quote:

Originally Posted by razorbacker

In the betting markets Trump is now 60-65% favorite to win Florida and 55% in Arizona. Biden has widened his lead overall. That doesn’t add up.

Political betting markets are very inefficient. They always have been. People seem way more emotionally invested than even something like sports.

11-03-2020 , 02:25 PM

#119

Original Position

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 9,426

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWookie

Political betting markets are very inefficient. They always have been. People seem way more emotionally invested than even something like sports.

This is the biggest sustained large-volume gap between the best polling models and prediction markets that I remember. If Trump wins or the election is very close, I'll increase the relative credibility of prediction markets vs polls.

11-03-2020 , 02:27 PM

#120

Inso0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 8,723

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Spew

Any chance you play poker..... for money?

Not really "for money" but yes, a home game every other week or so, you humorless rube.

Much like waterfalls, I'm not chasing many 4 outers if that's what you're hoping for.

I do fall victim to the boredom spew though, from time to time. If I needed the buyins to eat, maybe I'd be happier to sit on my hands. Just balancing out that range though, amirite?

11-03-2020 , 02:27 PM

#121

Jsmith27

banned

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 3,984

i just moved the texas line by 50 cents on one of the major sites with a bet that wasnt that big and its not like that was gonna influence the main market.. also used 0 information to do it other than gut feel so lol, money will fight on either side and get to a better idea of reality than polls with no skin in the game

11-03-2020 , 02:33 PM

#122

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,227

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inso0

Thanks for playing.

11-03-2020 , 02:33 PM

#123

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,681

(null)
His links are direct from breitbart.

11-03-2020 , 02:39 PM

#124

MrWookie

Don't Call Me Meredith

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 94,159

Quote:

Originally Posted by Original Position

Then you don't remember Ron Paul's betting market odds.

11-03-2020 , 02:39 PM

#125

JoeC2012

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by Original Position

It's definitely the biggest gap I can remember (though I wasn't gambling politics in 2012, wasn't that one where models varied from the conventional wisdom heavily?), but gaps between models and markets are pretty common. You could have easily gotten Trump +400 or even better in 2016 when Nate had him 29%. That's a lot of EV!

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