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***Election Week Sweat Thread***  (renamed) ***Election Week Sweat Thread***  (renamed)
View Poll Results: Presidential Prediction?
Biden wins a landslide
42 50.00%
Biden ekes it out
29 34.52%
Trump ekes it out
8 9.52%
Trump wins a landslide
5 5.95%

11-04-2020 , 02:37 AM
WI gona call the result in 2 hours
11-04-2020 , 02:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagoRy
I don't see how Biden gets GA either based on his margins for what is left.
ATL center goes 85 for Biden, but agreed that doesn't look enough. Depends a lot what is not counted.
11-04-2020 , 02:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Biden has moved from +400 to +275 recently. That's not getting called tonight. Most of the Fulton Co. vote hasn't been counted.
Biden has drifted a lot just now. Thought you said that those mid west states were a lock for him? Those mail in votes probably won't be enough.
11-04-2020 , 02:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinMeRightRound
Biden has drifted a lot just now. Thought you said that those mid west states were a lock for him? Those mail in votes probably won't be enough.
I think WI is better for biden and MI for trump right now. at least how it looks rn
11-04-2020 , 02:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Biden has moved from +400 to +275 recently. That's not getting called tonight. Most of the Fulton Co. vote hasn't been counted.
What's your definition of most? 72% is counted so far according to NYT.
11-04-2020 , 02:41 AM
what site are you guys on? both that I've seen have Biden at +130
11-04-2020 , 02:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the pleasure
so trump just isn't going to speak?
He waiting on Joe to concede.
11-04-2020 , 02:41 AM
as soon as tonight's rubble settles and he's slightly ahead, guarantee this authoritarian goes live proclaiming its game over, we're ending this here and now, its going to courts!
11-04-2020 , 02:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheMVP
Trump gets Georgia and PA it's over, he's a solid betting favourite in both markets right now.
Assuming Biden gets Nevada, then he needs just 2 out of WI, MI, GA, PA. And NC could sub in for one of them.
11-04-2020 , 02:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nucleardonkey
ATL center goes 85 for Biden, but agreed that doesn't look enough. Depends a lot what is not counted.
Plus exit polls have shown Trump to of gained a small amount of male African American support versus 2016. That could make a bit of different in Fulton county.
11-04-2020 , 02:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennisa
Plus exit polls have shown Trump to of gained a small amount of male African American support versus 2016. That could make a bit of different in Fulton county.
Again, exit polls mean even less this year since the people being polled are disproportionately conservative republicans.
11-04-2020 , 02:44 AM
win or loss.

Trump really ****ing went hard and so did his voters, they all got out and really mass voted more so than what we all thought. whether you think about silent voter syndrome or not.
11-04-2020 , 02:45 AM
I feel like Biden is a pretty good bet right now if he is above even odds.
11-04-2020 , 02:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the pleasure
what site are you guys on? both that I've seen have Biden at +130
Pinnacle.
Trump -190
GA Trump -400
PA Trump -280
MI Trump -200
WI Trump -130
11-04-2020 , 02:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sublime
Pinnacle.
Trump -190
GA Trump -400
PA Trump -280
MI Trump -200
WI Trump -130
wow
11-04-2020 , 02:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KingOfFelt
I feel like Biden is a pretty good bet right now if he is above even odds.
You gotta be joking he needs a miracle down big in every remaining state and the polls where clearly off once again.
11-04-2020 , 02:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the pleasure
win or loss.

Trump really ****ing went hard and so did his voters, they all got out and really mass voted more so than what we all thought. whether you think about silent voter syndrome or not.
disagree! it boils down to people choosing party over country. there is no real reason polls should be so skew'd other than pure tribalism. don't identify with Trump but still vote Trump cause R policy.
11-04-2020 , 02:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
-400? Trump is -240 on Bovada. He was -600 a little while ago.
Both could be wrong but unless the betting markets have changed a ton, Pinny is wayyyyyy sharper than Bovada. Probably not a huge difference in prices once vig worked out but I trust pinny number much more.
11-04-2020 , 02:50 AM
Biden just went from -105 to +160 in the last few minutes on 365. What happened?
11-04-2020 , 02:51 AM
bovada has been favorign trump so ****ing hard all night too
11-04-2020 , 02:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
-400? Trump is -240 on Bovada. He was -600 a little while ago.
Why do u insist on quoting Bovada, a joke of a book and not truly representative of the current market?
11-04-2020 , 02:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KingOfFelt
Biden just went from -105 to +160 in the last few minutes on 365. What happened?
PA votes and MI had a slight 1% lead for trump last 10 mins.

but these odds are changing every 15 mins or refresh rate, -/+ 150 either way
11-04-2020 , 02:53 AM
I thought trump could steal NV, really unfortunate for reds that its Goggin for biden pretty hard
11-04-2020 , 02:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by a_r_K
You gotta be joking he needs a miracle down big in every remaining state and the polls where clearly off once again.
You just looking at the total votes counted? Now I get why the odds are so weird. People just aren't grasping that in a lot of the cases remaining votes to be counted are likely to be heavily weighted for the dems.

Polls were def wrong though. Much closer than expected.
11-04-2020 , 02:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinb1983
disagree! it boils down to people choosing party over country. there is no real reason polls should be so skew'd other than pure tribalism. don't identify with Trump but still vote Trump cause R policy.
I got messages from people who railed on Trump and said they voted for Trump anyway because “can’t get myself to vote Biden/Democrat”

      
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