Fair enough, that's some good points about the advantages of buying time.

As I said before wuhan is the money printing engine of china. They would be stupid not to save it immediately with everything they got. That doesn't necessarily mean it's the best for the people. Did you ever see a factory there? Im sure you heard of the poor conditions those workers are in and how well paid they are.

I do not trust the daily mirror too much, but I found this through Google now. Hopefully someone can debunk this.

"Vaccines need to be taken a life long"

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...y-23280233.amp

I don't care about the guess others make to try and negate a fact so I will ignore that part as it is pretty useless conjecture.

But thank you for answering that.

So lets put to bed now any question over 'do shut downs work'?

The DEFINITIVELY did and that is a matter of FACT we can see in China and you acknowledge.

So this statement or question i see offered up as arguably the main issue of those who believe in 'Let ir Rip' is just factually wrong.


So the question they really want to address are:

1 - can other Countries reasonably repeat what China did (answer...no)
2 - is there some level of compliance between what China did and Let it Rip that might not achieve a full arresting of the virus spread but can slow it enough AT KEY TIMES, to help alleviate stresses on the Health Care System, that lead to spiking numbers of deaths due to lack of proper care, more so than the virus' itself?

It is point 2 where all the debate TRULY lies between the Let it Rip and others.

it is about 'flattening the curve' which does not necessarily mean less cases cumulatively but can mean less at any given time period and far less deaths per infection case.

The Let it Rip crowd might not care about that outcome but certainly others in society can. Most of NYS outsized death totals were not due to the fundamentals of the virus and the danger it posed organically and were due to the Health Care systems inability to render care. Flattening the curve allows care to be rendered and for treatments to be better figured out.

"They" found a pretty good polio vaccine that requires only one jab, washoe.

If you are talking the J&J vaccine , yes only one jab. My question is for how long does it work. That is a question I have seen nowhere covered. We are just looking short term not long term consequences imo.

I don't want to get into the argument if lockdown s worked or not. I'm split there. They certainly did a lot a damage to older folks. (Not being able to see their families, depression etc) Sweden did a much better job there imo.

No, not J&J specific... only that a once-in-a-lifetime jab for polio came about after years of trial and error. Can we get a once-in-a-lifetime for SARS/MERS/COVID within next few years? Possible.

The obvious success story for the world is Taiwan. They implemented effective border controls, social distancing, and also contact tracing and never even needed to lockdown. Country of 23 million and they had less than 1500 cases and only 11 deaths.

https://theconversation.com/how-taiw...success-158900

I dont know much about China - best to assume nothing at all. Doesn't change the reality in the UK etc.

I accept it's very hard to quantify the downside of the 'eventually' strategy. Could be anything from a net positive to a huge downside.

Oh now i got you. Yeah that would be in the realm of possibilities I guess. One and done, bet fold that would be ideal I don't want to 3-4 and 5 bet the covid.

And that is the logic disconnect so many make.

It is unquestionable they worked in China and thus they do work. Full Stop.

The question of 'if others can reproduce CHina' is not one of 'do they work' and is one instead of 'can or do other societies have the appetite or will to try and reproduce what China did'.


We cam reasonably debate the latter but the former we cannot. It is settled fact.

That sounds like Singapore or Korea, who were supersuccessful. Why can't we just handle it like them? Too many idiots on our population/governments?

Agreed to the above. I think our politicians are famous for short term solutions though and they messed up with the covid in several ways. Looking at Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.

I think this is comparing apples to oranges. What works in China or N Korea is not working for us and vice versa. They are complete different systems.

You simply do not have the data to back this up

I am really sick this covid thing. All I hear is mutations mutations. And they are all stronger than the original one. So what exactly happens if you pass the virus through 7B people? What if we all walk around with a test kit at all times? Then nobody can infect anyone and when they have it they just go to the er. Until someone comes with a new variant and it all starts over. Man this thing is unstoppable. It's like trying to hit a one outer..

You're right there is not enough data.
I've seen people who were about to die and they were alone because covid protocols didn't allow their families to be with them. That's enough data for me. That's just not the way to handle things.
We have dealt with aids patients at the beginnings of hiv and they were stigmatized. Now all of the sudden there is a way to be safe even with aids patients. Having a normal life. Why do we have to stigmatize covid patients now? Its a lung infection! For crying out loud. Nothing you should be dying alone for.

While China's strategy might not be implementable, Korea's might be. That is to test the f put of people but without lockdowns. I just read an article where they had a mass wedding in Korea with hundreds or thousands of people now. It is possible but I think not many people in the western countries are not willing to pay the price.

The price is being tracked through an app imo. We are cool with Google and co tracking us but not for our perceived freedom. We rather stay in quarantine than to give up this stupid right to keep this data. This is dumb. Very dumb of us.

If we want to roam free now we have to do as the example States are doing. (Korea, Japan, singapore?)

This is why China's strategy is not working for us.
This is a nurse working in wuhan. She didn't get it and she was caring for hundreds of patients.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51408516

Ya you are struggling with the point.

Because the systems are different is not a reason to maintain a position that 'lockdowns do not work'.

If you understand logic and how words work you will understand what I am saying above.

Having different systems is a reason to argue 'why you get differing results' in different areas.

But I think some people have a desire to not admit they work so they jump thru all sorts of specious rationalizations as a way to not admit it.

It is undeniable that lockdowns can and do work. CHina is proof of that absolute.

The debate is then, are other countries in a position to repeat that by modeling that and are other factors in play?

I am not struggling with that point. Maybe I wasn't clear enough.

Lockdowns work but are uneccessary if we do as the examples do. All we have to do, and if we want the same results, is to do as Taiwan or Korea is doing.
That is desirable imo and far better than the lockdown back and forth. Which is doing nothing really imo. And we are giving out data anyways.

Someone could even make an app and encrypt the tracking data.

Great.

So many of these discussions begin with 'lockdowns don't work' or some variation of that statement and as I have shown that simply is factually wrong.

They can and do work so we need to stop people saying that.

The question than is what is replicable, why or why not. What are alternatives?

I would say the goal of interventions should be to avoid lockdowns as much as possible. Lockdowns is «societal CPR», we want to avoid things becoming critical enough to need it.

Things we have reasonable reason to say work is quick early response time, fact-based public warnings, mass testing, guidelines for behavior (social distancing, hygiene, isolation for infected), stopping large gatherings, increased hospital capacity and protecting vulnerable groups. I probably forgot a few.

Especially early warnings and trust is important. Pandemics can grow exponentially. The first days can be more important than months are later.

Everyone needs to be sent self test kits. Why didn't I receive a test in the mail? They are so stupid. They rather spent billions of billions on masks,vaccines, equipment, lost taxes etc. than to buy the people 2 dollar self test kits?? Makes no sense at all. I bought a lot of self test kits from a nearby supermarket. I think they are about 2-4 dollars each.

Sending to everyone would be a gargantuan logistical task, I can imagine it it is far better to focus on early testing capacity and targeted testing.

Self-testing kits also require a testing kit that can be operated by non-professionals, which if you have been tested for Covid-19 you would see is not the easiest accomplishment (though testkits might have improved now) and you would rely on non-experts to carry out a medical procedure.

You can also be reasonably certain that a lot of people would not use the testkits even if they were sent.

People also need more tests than one. I have taken 4 tests so far myself over the last year (precautions, nature of my work).

Im looking at a test kit right now. You only need to swipe it in your nose. Its a qtip cotton. I think they became better and better.

I just found this link for people in the UK. You can request 2 free kits and then they send it to you. Imo this should be done for everyone without request.

https://www.inews.co.uk/news/health/...ery-944117/amp