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08-06-2020 , 04:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1&onlybillyshears
It is difficult to assess. Imperial College (Neil Ferguson, who has made multiple previous huge modelling errors eg. foot and mouth, swine flu) claimed there would be 500k deaths or 250k deaths without or with lockdown respectively. There have been 50 maybe 60k deaths reported (bearing in mind issues around reporting cause of death, method of testing etc but let us take this value as read). So the modelling of how lockdowns reduce transmission is guesswork.
In terms of restrictions each measure would need to be considered. For instance there are no Randomised Controlled Trials that support mask wearing to reduce transmission of infectious diseases. There are observational studies that support mask wearing but this does not meet a scientific standard. So you have an argument of 'x country/state mandated masks and had y reduction of infections' which is purely correlative.
What needs to be done is acknowledge the impact of lockdown, eg


https://www.dw.com/en/un-warns-of-ge...res/a-54428520

And yet Sweden for instance did not close its schools and did not suffer worse in terms of reported covid deaths.
It is not that difficult to assess. You seem desperate to pick and choose tidbits you think help while ignoring mass data that does not.

Around the world we say how the first wave of virus hitting countries quickly was overwhelming medical care capabilities leading to many unnecessary deaths and then as those countries ALL mostly shut down, that curve was massively reduced and the death rates plummeted.

Sweden stands in stark contrast of 'what not to do' in that regard, as many are now admitting, as they have an otherwise inexplicable catastrophic death rate compared to all their nordic peers, who did shut down and yet no additional economic benefits.

And then again, you see now in Texas, Florida, Arizona and other places how quickly things started to rise to critical levels, where catastrophic death rates were approaching and AGAIN they resorted to mass restrictions, shut downs and mask use to again flatten the curve and bring it back under control.


Your entire position seems to be to just deny what we are observing time and again and nothing stronger than that.

Just a quick question if you will. Do you believe in flat earth theory?
08-06-2020 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joe6pack
Sorry, but encouraging and/or participating in mass gatherings in the midst of a 100 year pandemic is dumb. Extremely dumb. That was my point.
What you continue to do wrongly, and you know it with this constant trolling, is pretend that you have not been explained the difference between actions here.

- NO one planned for the timing of GF death to be during a Pandemic
- People cannot help their emotional outrage sparked by the injustice of watching a POC being murdered in such an evil and callous way by a cop
- Protest of such things happen regardless of what the law or officials want. They are acts of civil disobedience.
- Health professionals can both not want a large protest during a pandemic, call for masks and distancing where possible, but recognize they cannot stop it, and that does not equal endorsing it
- health professionals can recognize the role of civil protest, especially to a cause like this to also be a critical national issue and support that while wishing it was happening outside a pandemic.

Joe, your entire position here is acting like health professional called for this, had control to disallow it, and promoted it. None of which is true.

And that makes it entirely different than Trump calling to open bars, restaurants, churches, stadiums and allow big public events. Those he is controlling and endorsing.
08-06-2020 , 04:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1&onlybillyshears
I...

And yet Sweden for instance did not close its schools and did not suffer worse in terms of reported covid deaths.
US has 490 deaths/million and Sweden has 571.

But perhaps more to the point Norway has 47 deaths/million, Finland has 60 and the Nederlands have 359.

Those would be Swedan's closest neighbors more or less.

And across the water we have Germany at 110 deaths/million and Poland at 47.
08-06-2020 , 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1&onlybillyshears
It is difficult to assess. Imperial College (Neil Ferguson, who has made multiple previous huge modelling errors eg. foot and mouth, swine flu) claimed there would be 500k deaths or 250k deaths without or with lockdown respectively.
This is not correct. The prediction of 250k deaths was without lockdown but with home isolation of cases, home quarantine and social distancing of those over 70 years. It was absolutely not the prediction for the fuller lockdown which we then had to try to suppress the outbreak.
Quote:
The report details that for the first scenario (slowing the spread), the optimal policy would combine home isolation of cases, home quarantine and social distancing of those over 70 years. This could reduce the peak healthcare demand by two-thirds and reduce deaths by half. However, the resulting epidemic would still likely result in an estimated 250,000 deaths and therefore overwhelm the health system (most notably intensive care units).

In the second scenario (suppressing the outbreak), the researchers show this is likely to require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members (and possible school and university closure).
http://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/19623...likely-impact/

The second scenario (commonly called lockdown) is what the UK actually did.
08-06-2020 , 04:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
Haha so much fun.



They are calling for me to be banned in the CoronaVirus thread in the Business, Finance and Investing saying it is supposed to be devoid of politics and I am "politarding" the thread with my Trump points.



I put together a mega post quoting the TS, and showing long before I joined the thread his entire thesis is that the 'US is doing poorly as Covid is a "Dem Disease" and if not for Dem Leadership at the Governor and Mayor level and Dem voters, none of which whom would ever listen to Trump, things would be much better'.





In post over post he used that underlying premise and would post selective data to support and no one cried about politics. ANyone posts a counter and the tears flow.



It is amazing really but i guess not surprising that Trump fans would eat up confirmation bias material and think they should have a safe space to do so.







In the spoilers is just a smattering of the TS' posts as he, himself is now calling for my banning saying I am being political.



Spoiler:


















































-------------------------



Victim culture has ruined BILLIONS OF LIVES!

And people take investing advice from this guy.
08-06-2020 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Rick
US has 490 deaths/million and Sweden has 571.

But perhaps more to the point Norway has 47 deaths/million, Finland has 60 and the Nederlands have 359.

Those would be Swedan's closest neighbors more or less.

And across the water we have Germany at 110 deaths/million and Poland at 47.
Germany should be a decent "metric" to compare to.

Federation of states like the US, very international economy, lots of travel to and from, some very big cities and similar urbanization.
08-06-2020 , 05:21 PM
Two Georgia teens say they were suspended from school where crowded hallway photo went viral

Their crime? Taking photos that made the school look bad!

Quote:
At least two students say they have been suspended at North Paulding High School in Georgia for posting photos of crowded hallways that went viral on Twitter.

The photos show students packed into hallways between classes, not appearing to practice social distancing and with few masks visible, amid the coronavirus panic.
...
She posted the above photo with the caption, "Day two at North Paulding High School. It is just as bad. We were stopped because it was jammed. We are close enough to the point where I got pushed multiple go to second block. This is not ok. Not to mention the 10% mask rate."

Watters said she was pulled into the school's office around noon on Wednesday and was told she had violated the student code of conduct.

"The policies I broke stated that I used my phone in the hallway without permission, used my phone for social media, and posting pictures of minors without consent," she said.
SMUDGERRRRRRRR
08-06-2020 , 05:28 PM
Separate article about the same school and how it is a total dumpster fire

Quote:
North Paulding High School, about an hour outside Atlanta, reopened Monday despite an outbreak among members of its high school football team, many of whom, a Facebook video shows, worked out together in a crowded indoor gym last week as part of a weightlifting fundraiser.

Within days of that workout, several North Paulding players had tested positive for the coronavirus. The school’s parents were notified just hours before the first day of class.

And multiple teachers at North Paulding say there are positive tests among school staff, including a staff member who came into contact with most teachers at the school while exhibiting symptoms last week. Teachers and staff said the school won’t confirm coronavirus infections among district employees, citing privacy reasons.
Quote:
James’ parents saw the photograph that had been circulating Tuesday and told him, “You are not going back to school again,” he said. But a few hours later, his mother had spoken to the school and was told that students who “chose not to go to school” could face suspension or expulsion.

On Wednesday, he went back to school. “I had no choice,” he said.

North Paulding teachers said they too felt they had no choice but to show up to work, even after a staff member texted colleagues saying she had tested positive for the virus. The staffer had attended planning sessions while exhibiting symptoms, one teacher said.
SMUDGERRRRRRRRR
08-06-2020 , 05:30 PM
Students at school touted by Pence for reopening must quarantine due to COVID-19



Quote:
"We're here today because to open up America, we've got to open up America's schools and Thales Academy is literally in the forefront," Pence said.
Quote:
Fourth graders at a school in North Carolina have been asked to quarantine for 14 days after a student there tested positive for COVID-19.

The school, a Thales Academy in Wake Forest, said it was notified on Monday that the student became infected after having contact with an infected family member.
08-06-2020 , 06:02 PM
It is a real Sophie's Choice.

In the state I live in there is pretty much no school for the foreseeable future. So the privileged elites are hiring private teachers to teach their children while they work; and for everyone else, parents have to stay at home and watch their children who are getting no schooling, and haven't had any since March.

When the smoke clears the elites and their children will have even more of an edge than the giant edge they already had. Income inequality will just continue to grow as opportunity is funneled even more to the rich.
08-06-2020 , 06:08 PM
Interestingly, but not too surprisingly, in the parts of Los Angeles where Jews are concentrated all the private Jewish schools are opening and plowing ahead full steam.

I have Jewish friends who tried to enroll their kids in private Hebrew school when they realized public school wasn't going to happen, but the schools were all booked solid with monster waiting lists.
08-06-2020 , 06:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Spew
Can't be. I find it incredibly hard to believe that scientists would ever say large gatherings are a good thing with C19 in full bloom. Joe... please cite or I will probably need to toss you out on yer butt end. 24 hour timer has started.
Yawn. I have already cited this multiple times itt.

But just for your benefit here we go again:

Quote:
"However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/healt...rnd/index.html
08-06-2020 , 06:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
What you continue to do wrongly, and you know it with this constant trolling, is pretend that you have not been explained the difference between actions here.

- NO one planned for the timing of GF death to be during a Pandemic
- People cannot help their emotional outrage sparked by the injustice of watching a POC being murdered in such an evil and callous way by a cop
- Protest of such things happen regardless of what the law or officials want. They are acts of civil disobedience.
- Health professionals can both not want a large protest during a pandemic, call for masks and distancing where possible, but recognize they cannot stop it, and that does not equal endorsing it
- health professionals can recognize the role of civil protest, especially to a cause like this to also be a critical national issue and support that while wishing it was happening outside a pandemic.

Joe, your entire position here is acting like health professional called for this, had control to disallow it, and promoted it. None of which is true.

And that makes it entirely different than Trump calling to open bars, restaurants, churches, stadiums and allow big public events. Those he is controlling and endorsing.
That's not my position at all. You continually miss the point, which was that they encouraged the protests with the letter that they put out. It was not necessary on their part, and it was dumb in the circumstances of the pandemic. Health professionals should not be encouraging or condoning mass gatherings during a pandemic, in any way.
08-06-2020 , 06:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Spew
Can't be. I find it incredibly hard to believe that scientists would ever say large gatherings are a good thing with C19 in full bloom. Joe... please cite or I will probably need to toss you out on yer butt end. 24 hour timer has started.
Scientists wouldn't say that, but activists would. And for good or bad many scientists have no problem taking their scientist hat off and putting their ideology hat on when circumstances dictate.

For good or bad, when it comes to hot button cultural topics related to science, it would probably be a bad idea to just blindly follow the scientific consensus, and instead it would behoove anyone to critically examine issues for themselves.
08-06-2020 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kelhus100
Scientists wouldn't say that, but activists would. And for good or bad many scientists have no problem taking their scientist hat off and putting their ideology hat on when circumstances dictate.

For good or bad, when it comes to hot button cultural topics related to science, it would probably be a bad idea to just blindly follow the scientific consensus, and instead it would behoove anyone to critically examine issues for themselves.
I don't feel I have the required expertise to critically examine issues related to e.g. epidemiology or client science myself. What do I do now?
08-06-2020 , 07:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2_e4
I don't feel I have the required expertise to critically examine issues related to e.g. epidemiology or client science myself. What do I do now?
That’s what YouTube university and Facebook are for bro. Plandemic, etc.
08-06-2020 , 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joe6pack
That's not my position at all. You continually miss the point, which was that they encouraged the protests with the letter that they put out. It was not necessary on their part, and it was dumb in the circumstances of the pandemic. Health professionals should not be encouraging or condoning mass gatherings during a pandemic, in any way.
No i got you and was correct.

Acknowledging something does not equal 'encouraging' it.

Trump encouraged people to not wear masks even as his health professionals were pushing people to do so. That is the proper use of the word.

The health professionals acknowledged it was happening and its role in national public health.

They can say both things while also wishing it was not happening during covid times, something they have no power over.
08-06-2020 , 07:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO2.0
That’s what YouTube university and Facebook are for bro. Plandemic, etc.
You jest, but I assume the people who are telling me not to believe what the scientists are saying are exactly the ones hooked up to a drip of shitty youtubez all day.
08-06-2020 , 07:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
No i got you and was correct.

Acknowledging something does not equal 'encouraging' it.

Trump encouraged people to not wear masks even as his health professionals were pushing people to do so. That is the proper use of the word.

The health professionals acknowledged it was happening and its role in national public health.

They can say both things while also wishing it was not happening during covid times, something they have no power over.
Saying "we support them as vital to the national public health", sounds like encouraging it to me.

Again you were wrong. Just man up for once, admit you were wrong and move on.

It's not the end of the world.
08-06-2020 , 08:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
These forums in 2011 after Black Friday were amusing to read if one wants a non political example of results based thinking in all its glory, as those (typically who could not compete) had been saying for years that online poker was going down, and after Black Friday happened - well - see this is exactly what they predicted, even if they had no specific prediction of it and had been saying online poker was going to die within months for several years.

The fact that they were whine guessing all along and that online poker did not die and is still not dead a decade later is irrelevant to them. They were right in their mind. Just an obvious angle shoot, but dummies fall for it, and it is not surprising that Trump will have people that use it in such a public manner, which make it great that they are all going to lose to LOLBiden with their current approach.
I can smell the irony from here lol

What a post...especially in a pandemic thread lol
08-06-2020 , 09:05 PM
Joe, the gist of the letter was encouraging the response to the protests to be dealing with the issues being protested, thereby reducing them and the COVID risk and at the same time addressing other important health issues, rather than dealing with them by trying to shut them down with draconian force (which we have seen fail), which would inevitably increase the COVID risk and other health risks.

Now quit lying about it or maybe the mods will allow me to call you names.
08-06-2020 , 09:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joe6pack
That's not my position at all. You continually miss the point, which was that they encouraged the protests with the letter that they put out. It was not necessary on their part, and it was dumb in the circumstances of the pandemic. Health professionals should not be encouraging or condoning mass gatherings during a pandemic, in any way.
Good thing that the protests increased social distancing on average and didn't induce a catastrophe, while also working in service of the public health interest of reducing police brutality. Perhaps those public health workers know more than you give them credit for!
08-06-2020 , 09:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
Good thing that the protests increased social distancing on average and didn't induce a catastrophe, while also working in service of the public health interest of reducing police brutality. Perhaps those public health workers know more than you give them credit for!
Even if that were the case, which I doubt, they had no way of knowing that would be the result. So, my point stands.
08-06-2020 , 10:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joe6pack
Even if that were the case, which I doubt, they had no way of knowing that would be the result. So, my point stands.
1. The best available evidence says that it is the case. Your inexpert incredulity is worthless without more and better data.

2. It is not unpredictable. Neither measurements of social distancing nor protests are new things this year.
08-06-2020 , 11:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
1. The best available evidence says that it is the case. Your inexpert incredulity is worthless without more and better data.

2. It is not unpredictable. Neither measurements of social distancing nor protests are new things this year.
Sorry, I'm not buying it. The protests could well have sparked a spike in infections. The health professionals had no way of predicting if that would happen or not. If it didn't it was down to good luck more than anything else.

      
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