Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
In terms of Scotland and care homes:
https://insight.jbs.cam.ac.uk/2020/flu-and-coronavirus/
Cliffs - there's an obvious negative correlation between previous severity of flu seasons and current covid deaths (while obviously there's huge issues with how you actually count that, as Hancock's flailing about now with PHE implying you can never recover from coronaplague). The UK, and as listed in said article, specifically Scotland, has had previously mild flu seasons. As such, there's an implication that around 30,000 people who are alive in the UK who previously would already be dead from flu if we had results we'd have expected to see, rather than mild ones. In other words, we're having so many deaths right now in care homes because they're running good in not being dead previously
The author points out it's very early days in terms of the work he's done in that report and it's only looking at correlation in the meantime. It also doesn't specifically look at care homes although given the group it's looking at will mostly be elderly then there will be an overlap there.
However if we look at the figures involved in care home deaths they are so high, even in comparison to our nearest neighbour (England) that there has to be something drastic going on. Almost 50% of Scottish deaths have been in care homes, the number for England is around half that.
There was the controversial policy up here of sending patients from hospial to care homes without waiting to see if they had Covid19. In terms of the care home scandal up here we've had the following:
* Health Secretary (Jeanne Freeman) instructs hospitals in March to discharge patients to free up capacity
* Freeman claims around 300 people had been discharged from hospital to care homes prior to testing starting on 21st April. After further investigation from journalists and MSP's she is forced to apologise to Parliament and admit the true figure was far higher at over 900 in March alone and over 1300 in total.
Nicola Sturgeon claims Freeman got the figures wrong as she was 'a bit tired'. This is despite the Scottish Government also putting out a vague statement on the figures before having to admit the truth.
* Freeman claims that until 22nd April "“there was no value at all to testing individuals who do not have symptoms”. She then appears in front of the Health Committee a week later and denies saying the test was of no value.
* Freeman tells Parliament there had been "125 incidents" of Covid on non-Covid wards between 18/3/20 and 3/6/20. This was interpreted as meaning 125 patients but after further investigation by journalists the Scottish Government had to admit it involved 908 patients
* Freeman is asked about guidance released by the Scottish Government that week (in May) advising that patients could be discharged from hospital to care homes without waiting on the results of their test. She said she has 'not seen the final updated guidance'
* Sturgeon is asked about why the care home death rate is so high in comparison to England. She said it's not for her to explain England's figures but then immedialy suggests they are down to under reporting. This is at the time that figures were showing the Scottish figures appeared to be under reported.
It's just one lie or attempted cover up after another and it's taken numerous attempts by journalists and opposition MSP's to try to get the true figures out.