So, she's president then. Right?

Not sure which polls you are talking but you should consider whatever sources very carefully. Biden is sure to leave the race at this point in my opinion. Things were already looking poor for him the more exposure he received and Ukrainegate is sure to end his tenure as a public figure.

The establishment has been shifting from Biden over to Warren slowly over the last month prior to Ukrainegate and they will surely in time claim her the anointed one, accusing anyone who disagrees with them of being a sexist like they did in 2016. Bernie did not look like he could win according to these same polls in 2016 and showed strongly, nearly winning the nomination.

Ultimately my point is, if I had to bet money on one or the other I'd put money on Warren as it seems like the more likely outcome. That said, this Trump controversy will calmdown some and there is still plenty of time before primary voting begins in 2020. There is some possibility that there will be debates between just Warren and Sanders between now and then. Additionally, Warren has been softening nearly every position she was taking earlier in the primaries and is beginning her pivot. This doesn't actually seem like a good strategy to me because she has not actually won the nomination yet. Don't forget that the base is far far more liberal than the DNC party and many of these people are PISSED.

So ya, there's plenty of time between now and 2020, hold tight.

Example?

Biden leads in almost every state. big lead in many large states and in many republican states (i don't think pundits have analyzed that enough).

i don't understand how biden's lead in all those states doesn't calibrate with the national polls......

I WAS WRONG ABOUT SOMETHING THOUGH..... Dems primaries are proportional delegates. so warren/sanders support can consolidate at a later date. you need 15% in that state to get any delegates (i.e. a minimum)

SOMETHING I WROTE ELSEWHERE

i've been looking at the democratic race and polls..

biden leads in most polls. but warren has had a pretty big surge in popularity (perhaps among people who would never have voted for biden anyways)

warren is now 50% chance to win democratic nomination, up from 3% probably 6 to 8 months ago.. what has actually happened to warrant that?

i will add that kamala harris went from 10% to 30% based on feistiness with biden and is now back to 5%.

here is the gist of my comments,

if you combined the progressives (warren and sanders for sure. not sure who else to add) votes, they would beat biden. but that is not how the primaries work and one of them will have to drop out to get that benefit (and then i think only in states yet to be contested)..

here is the latest polling data from the biggest states,

florida B+17
texas B+16
new york B+5
ohio B+17 (oldish data)
penn B+7
cal B+9 (or B+6)
wisconsin B+8 (old data)
michigan B+19
new jersey B+6
Georgia B+24
north carolina B+21

early dem states,

new hampshire B+13
South carolina B+33
iowa W+2

some liberal states,

oregon sanders +1
massacheusits B+2 (YES)
minnesota warren+1

and of course, all the republican dominated states still count for the dem nomination and biden is very strong there.

how can biden not be a HUGE favorite? only way i think is if someone they can combine sanders/warren votes at some point... but i assume they can't consolidate the votes on states that have already been decided... or can they?

thx in advance
Reply With Quote Reply With Quote

consolidating and adding,

here are biden's leads by state,

florida +17
texas +16
new york +5
ohio +17 old data
penn +7
california +9
illinois +21 old data

plus, as i said, big leads in so many republican states which are important in D primaries but effectively meaningless in presidential election.

anyway, dems= PROPORTIONATE subject to minimum.. whereas R's are pure "winner take all" or close to it.

here are the national democratic polls from the last 9 days or so (and made sure just one poll per pollster)..

biden +6
biden +11
B/W tie
biden +2
biden +14
warren +2
biden +12
biden +15

most recent first, and that is leader (mostly biden) vs. 2nd place.. so those are the polls i'm looking at

LOL you didn't actually include any links to polls or information about which poll you are sourcing information from. The univision poll for example a few weeks ago showed Sanders winning Texas if I recall correctly, but I honestly don't follow them very closely. Also I believe Biden was projected last week to lose 2/3 first primaries. This means a lot more than people think because that sets the tone for the rest of it.

@microbet, site what part? I'm happy to justify some of it. Site the whole thing? No thank you. It's my opinion.

here are the links,

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...atic/national/


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...atic/national/

and there's a tab for the states on that site too..

last 5 national polls listed in chrono order are b14, b8, b5, b11, tie..

on RCP, the last 15 or so states polled.... no cherry picking as i chose the latest poll for each of the states


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...lls/elections/

nevada B/S tie
SC B21
california W21 (it was cal berkeley LOL.. but they were the latest pollster)
georgia B24
maryland b21
NH W2
Iowa W2
new york B5
texas b6
wisconsin b8
new jersey b13
florida b10

anyway, i'm just trying to understand the process.. Biden looks miles ahead, especially if you consider that he probably has the best traction in most of the republican states too (sanders will be well-liked, harris too and part-black)....

is front-runner and doing well in NH, IOWA, SC, Nev (?) that important? remember steve ford.. i'm guessing hillary trounced obama early on, but i could easily be wrong.

Biden has big leads and Warren has small leads but she's rising and he's falling. With a lot of time between now and Iowa, let alone now and Super Tuesday.

Thx for the links. I think you can see that the places Biden is winning is generally winning by a lot. These places are place with a large population of black voters generally. While its nice for him that can afford to take hit in these places, it doesn't actually help him win a majority of the votes at the caucus. I believe the vast majority of states of winner take all as they should be if they want the most influence. However, this means that national polls are largely useless because at the end of the day it doesnt matter any more than the popular vote at the end of the presidential elections. Its worth mentioning to that many of the polls have dubious methodologies and tend to favor older voters. They are improving slowly over time, but over the few election cycles they have heavily favored establishment candidates.

Had a real life conversation with someone who said "Elizabeth Warren?! No way. She's done. Wall St. has signalled that they won't accept her"

And I laughed because I think that's malarky but it's definitely crazy the betting line difference vs what the polling numbers are between her and Biden.
People still think a brokered convention is a possibility but that hasn't happened in our lifetimes, right? But putting money into primaries still maybe safer than the overall nomination. Warren in the general election at .32 still a good buy and sell at like .57c.

The part I bolded, about Warren backing off some positions. Just that part.

I don't know about dropping out, but I agree Biden is going downhill fast.

Can we close this. It's Elizabeth Warren.

Biden won't win South Carolina.

Biden's only chance is Harris and Booker drop after Iowa and New Hampshire. Harris and Booker are too smart to do that.

Example, she keeps wishy washing her medicare for all position. Her adherence to no pacs or corporate donations during the primary stance gets weaker by the day. They are saying she carried over $10 mill from her senate reelection campaign to her 2020 presidential primary which included corporate donations. Aprtly the Working Families Party Endorsement for her last week was likely some crazy **** linked back to her daughter serving as a board member and there were some other leaks that indicated the reason she didn't endorse bernie in 2016 was because of some super secret behind closed doors deal with Hclinton back in 2012. She's also been doing a lot of what's perceived as signaling to the DNC that she won't rock the boat too much.

Warren is just weak sauce in many ways. If shes what we got and the worst thing I can say about her is that she is a politician, I'm not sure she can beat Trump but I'll 'vote for the lessor of two evils' if that's what it comes to.

Biden's toast. Warren will implode if she goes up against Trump. The Dem's only chance is impeachment

Regret, the Dem's know that Trump is unbeatable. They simply want the candidate to most move forward their agenda in 2024. Universal Health Care and open borders. no longer care about the unions. Trump got them. But, 2024, Universal Health Care. Open borders. They will be issues that are universally accepted. Ron Paul did the same thing.

Rand Paul will be the candidate in 2024 and lose, but move forward auditing the Fed and Pro Life.

The Warren is evil attack from the left is a nice compliment to the socialism drum beat from the right.

I took a poll at the blackjack table last weekend:

Trump 2
anybody but Trump 1
don't care 1
hate 'em all 1

true story...

Thing is Bernie supporters talking up how watered down she is has no effect except on those swayed by supporters. And those swayed by supporters are always turned off by Bernie supporters.

Then there is zero chance. 100% chance the House passes Articles of Impeachment, but 0% chance 19 (or 20 - can't remember if the GOP majority is 53/47 or 52/48) GOP Senators vote to convict.

If that happens, nobody in the GOP launches a primary challenge for the nomination.

The only way impeachment can succeed is after the 2020 election and even that's a long shot.

This is the gist of it although I don't think it explains why she is currently at 1-1 to win, while Biden is 4-1. Even if you think she's the favorite, she is quite a bit overvalued imo.

This issue for Warren is black support. The latest SC poll had her black support there at 4%. Biden is at 45%.

4% is just terrible, and she will face similar problems in every state with a large black voting population. Black voters like Joe, gaffes and all.

I suspect a large part of her lead, is a calculation that Sanders and/or Biden will drop out.

That's not really point. To be clear, HClinton was an attack on the left from the right. Whatever you want to say about BClinton at the time of his election, he would not fit in with the middle of the democratic party today for the same reasons that Joe doesn't.

The reason why 'Bernie Bros' are so touchy about this stuff is because the main stream media virtually never paints Bernie in a positive light and the mainstream DNC constantly fight against him in a way they don't against Warren. There is a literal clown car of images and stories by the mainstream media where they list the top 8 candidates but don't list Bernie (who is polling and 2nd-3rd at that time), say Bernie is fading because he doesn't seem to have the strength he had last time! (but he has actually exceeded his donor records from the previous primary contest), they talk about how JOE BIDEN IS THE GUY WHO CAN BEAT TRUMP but this isn't shown in almost any poll. I saw one above where Biden was slightly more favorable than Sanders and it was literally the first one I've ever seen where he was doing better than Sanders in a head to head versus Trump. Remember 2016 when HClinton was not favored head to head versus Trump, the Clintonites said they were the 'reasonable candidate' who would strip away republican 'centrists' away from Trump, meanwhile those same centrist republicans had been talking about pizza gate and BEEENNGAAAZZI for like last 18 months none stop.

I really don't view it as a Sanders versus Warren sort of thing, but the press certainly will make it that once Ukrainegate has calmed some and Biden's writing is on the wall. Who do you think will get endless puff pieces and who will get endless stories about how hes comin to take your TAXES middleclass? The same people making these attacks will be donating to EWarren on the sly and advertising some feels great tastes great pain pills on their Amazon owned news channel. It's not really a 'we hate Warren just like we hated HClinton' thing, its just a thing and its real. You can certainly disagree if you wish.

Let me ask you think honestly if you think 'Bernie Bros' are just being salty.. Do you think Bernie Bros will vote Warren if she legit wins the nomination? If Bernie won, do you think Bernie would give Warren his VP? Now flip those two questions backwards and ask yourself why the opposite isn't true. Let's be real, you guys like to talk **** but its mostly just hollow. Ya'll are the first ones to say we aren't really on the team but as soon as its time you are the first to sell the cause out with lessor of two evilsism.

I’d trade HRC above....this...

In person Elizabeth warren is a better speaker than you would expect. I think she’s the candidate.