Your vote in 2016 strongly suggests that you don't care how smart a presidential candidate is.

Ask me a harder one. Eg Yang vs Mayor Pete. And please finish reviewing my book.

The way I look at it is there's not much point in a progressive voting democrat if they have to vote Biden. Sure you won, but what was the point, so that you could have a very slightly less crappy establishment candidate? Warren is pretty establishment on a number of issues, but she is also pretty progressive on others. I think it would be pretty impractical for progressives to hold their nose up at Warren and say she wasn't good enough. Who cares what middle of the road voters do. Trumpers are never changing their vote and infact he has 80% or similar approval among republicans. The electorate has moved against the republicans demographically, but 50% of eligible voters stayed home last time. It is easy for democrats to win if they can show voters Trump didn't follow through with his promises and that they are offering a real option this time. Clinton was more of the same, she was never going to motivate the disengaged but the DNC forced her on the party.

That doesn't contradict my prediction.

Perhaps, but my suggestion that he has little interest in pushing her to run certainly does.

If the general election turns out to be Trump v. Biden, then the point is obvious -- to keep Donald Trump from being president.

You post implies that there is little difference between Biden being president and Trump being president, which is obviously absurd.

There are more skeletons cladding to Biden than Michelle and that debris doesn't have the impression that it used to.

Literally the only way Biden wins is for the DNC/superdelegates to intercede on his behalf. If the democratic party is not democratic, their loss is good thing for people who hold democratic ideals, even if in the short term an asshat like Trump wins a 2nd term. It was true in 2016 and its true now.

you dont think he wins outright??



also want to say this is the most progresive and pretty left ive ever seen a democrats be w their policies, mostly wearren and sanders I think.

Biden will not win fair and square. It just won't happen. He has a very small lead and every week he looks like a moron. He is very old. If the press covered him like the candidates they do not like, he would have been done a long time ago.

Even if he thought she added ten percent to the Democrat's chances?

No chance Michelle runs in 2020.

Michael Moore is deranged if he said she would run.

Correct.

Whether you think Biden can win the primary is completely irrelevant to the point I was making about the general election.

Regret$ has trouble accepting the world is different from how he imagines it.

grizy is mad I don't want to pay 6% of GDP for CIA proxy oil wars. I already explained why I thought it would be a good thing in post 303. IDC how many or how few people agree with me. It's not really something I can control.

What a bizarre thing to say about the overwhelming polling leader.

Really? Do you think most people agree with you? What about 20%? 30%? 100%?

You’re right: we should definitely discuss how completely wrong your prediction was ITT.

If you don't think most people agree with Rococo then I assume you're backing up the truck on Michelle being the nominee given the market has it priced at over 100-1?

To be clear, the question we are discussing is: In order for Barack Obama to push Michelle Obama to run for president, he would have to believe that she added X% to the Democrats chances of winning the presidency.

You suggested 10%. So if the Democrats had a 50% chance of winning w/o Michelle in the race, they would have a 55% chance of winning if she entered the race.

Do I think that's enough to make him lean on her? Nope. Do I think most people would agree with me? Definitely.

What percentage would it take? I'm not sure. I think he would have to believe that (i) Michelle was a lock to get the nomination if she entered the race (which isn't so clear here); (ii) actually being president would not make her miserable; (iii) the Democrats had very little chance w/o her in the race; and (iv) the Democrats had a >50% chance if she entered the race.

So you are going full Trump by declaring that the process will be rigged -- depending on the outcome?

Over the last few elections the poling has been off quite significantly, favoring candidates liked by older people who sit around all day waiting for their land line phone to ring. Additionally, currently Biden is even trailing Warren with donations, and Warren seems to be softening her positions in favor of picking up the establishment money. By the time the primaries come, I predict Biden will be barely a contender and Warren will be the establishment candidate. Bernie has A LOT of money to spend, and will likely have to spend a lot of it to get out of the primaries. Realistically he can't run for president again at 79 so its do or die time for him. Biden has made a lot of gaffs, taken a lot of poor positions over the year and I suspect he is very vulnerable to negative ads.

So I think the most likely result at this point is that Warren will take the nomination when the establish sees the writing on the wall and fears that Bernie is likely to win the nomination as things stand. The DNC will do whatever they can to tip the scales away from him because, lets be honest, they are just corporate shills. Kind of unfortunate, while I'm not a huge fan of Warren she is reasonably progressive for an establishment democrat. However, I think she pairs pretty poorly against Trump, who has a pretty strong history of making her look like a fool. Whether or not she can win head to head I think largely depends on how the economy is doing at the moment and whether or not the DNC decides to sepuku by continuing with the russiagate fiasco.

There is a gigantic difference between "most likely result" and "...will not win fair and square."

Stop being nits. Hyper analyzing word choice or attacking 1 out of 5 things someone says is not debating in good faith.

He's not going to win imo, very unlikely <15%. Obama leaked a few weeks ago that he told Biden not to run. You guys are acting like he already won, that saying otherwise flies in the face of all that is good and right in the world. Sometimes there's more to a story than exactly whatever is on the news that day. Nothing is certain and if I say my opinion I could be wrong whether what I said was the most likely to happen or not.