Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunyain
Maybe I am overestimating how important the abortion issue is, but I find I hard to believe that any politician that supports dropping the cutoff to 6 weeks (and has passed laws to that effect) could win a general Presidential election, even against a Democrat candidate as weak as Biden.
It is probably unhelpful in a general election to have that on your record, but I wouldn't put it as starkly as you did.
Unless there is a third party candidate in the mix, my rebuttable presumption in general elections is that each major party candidate has a minimum of a 15% chance to win, no matter how terrible the candidate is.
Mondale is probably the last candidate to have lower true odds than 15% coming out of the convention.