Washoe is on a roll. You tell em big guy.

On another note. I just wanted to share my observations over the last 4 years when I really started to get involved in politics betting. Sorry if this is a curve ball on the discussion.

Something caught my attention when I heard on Bloomberg radio someone mention how all the smart money is on the Republicans in Las Vegas.
We all thought that the Republicans would do a lot better than they did. It was the historical trend. Even if they win back the House by a slim margin, it was a terrible mid term election for the Republicans.
I've learned that even the sharpest sports bettors are donkeys when it comes to politics betting.
Most seem to throw all their analytical methods that they use on sports betting out the window and wager according to their political biases. And the majority of sports bettors seem to be conservative.
So all I'm saying is, when it comes to politics betting, don't follow the smart (dumb)money.

I think the chance Kari Lake holds an office in the next 4 years is >50%.
She will also do a lot of damage on the right wing crazy talking head circuit.

Which office would that be? I think the important voters (those not on the far right and those not on the far left) are tired of the Trump nonsense, which is why it looks like she's going to get bagged by a person that didn't want to debate her.

Nevada Senate contest:
Repub Adam Laxalt's lead is down to about 850 votes over Dem Catherine Cortez Masto. CCM is expected to take the lead on the next update tomorrow.

This victory will give Dems control of the US Senate.
Will also carry Dem momentum into to the Georgia Senate run-off.

More importantly IMO, it would mean they could finally take true control of the Senate - control that doesn't rely on Manchin.

Or perhaps too much time in Asheville

Lot of Trumpers went Dem out of spite.

Lot of Anti-Trumpers went Dem out of spite.

Don't think Conservatives acquired any spite votes in the midterm.

I think whoever wins out of Trump/De Santis wins the Presidency in a landslide.

(far less spite votes cast for the actual President) - my estimation.

They did though.

(For the candidates he disavowed)

should have made that clear mb.

They didnt tho.

You look like a total fool suggesting they did.

You look like a total fool every time you type anything.

Ok then why did the candidates Trump endorsed heavily do much worse than the ones he didn't?

Do they just LOOOOVE Ronny D?

Only someone with a childlike mind would think people spite vote in significant numbers.

It's way more anti-Trump than it is Pro anything.

So trumpers voted dem out of spite because of anti trump.

Lol wat, at least try and keep your ridiculous argument consistent.

Also being anti something is not remotely the same thing as voting out of spite.

You always respond with personal attacks, didn't expect anything different brother.

This child still wants to pump your ass in an IQ test!

1k min lets set it up whenever.

Voted Dem against people disavowed by Trump holy shitt can you read?

It's like talking to a toddler.

Yes I can read.

I was reacting to this post:

Which is a clear statement that spite voting is WAY MORE ANTI TRUMP,

Which is why, given your post above disavowed by trump, I called you inconsistent.

You also argue that the candidates endorsed by Trump DO WORSE.

Which again is another total inconsistency with the above quote, because they would have less spite votes, or more because spity dems wat is it? No one knows including you.

You cant even keep your absurd narrative in line with itself.

Again what? Yeah spite votes went against Trump because of the split-ticket dynamic in the midterms.

Is everyone in 2+2 Politics this dumb these days or does this guy just suck?

My point is so clear yet he seems unable to understand it LOL.

I understand that you dont get the concept of the floating voter and therefore reduce voting intention to something as simple and childish as spite, because this is how you relate to the world.

That's how Trump's voter base is voting LOL!

Not me!

You wanna tell me those crazy fkers didn't go vote Dem in a district that Trump disavowed?

Of course they did man.

Im not saying that you vote like that, Im saying that if you look at the world through the lens you posses, you of course will come up with an idea as silly as spite voting.

If a Dem doesn't like their representative I estimate they would still vote Dem like 95% (feel free to correct me all)

If Trump disavows a candidate he sways a massive amount of people.

This isn't a negligible amount of people, and these people will all most likely go back Red in the Presidential election (my main point).

But yeah to be honest my lens is pretty much pure autism so I could be missing stuff.

The disavowed candidates got more red votes than endorsed candidates.

So there are more red votes to "return" in Trump supported seats than disavowed candidate seats.

This is why your argument is totally inconsistent.