Disclaimer: I haven't read the official manual on SBR [would like to get it, btw] and the following are my musings based on the explanations I've read in the poker media, in particular, 2+2 threads, about the way SBR works. This month (I hope, in the next one too), I'll be playing on a deal (through a 2+2 advertising partner) that includes an SBR-based race, so I'll have access to my SBR data and shall be able to report by how much the new model will reduce my rake figures. I'm a rather weak player, plus a big part of my volume will be in €10 Twister and €20 Rio jackpot SnGs, which will give a slight 'discount', as elaborated below.
The new 'real player value' (RPV) method indeed results in smaller rakeback figures for regs than the old method, but the impact depends on how good you are at the game.
As far as I've figured out, essentially, from a player viewpoint, lifetime RPV = 0.5 * old rake + ~0.5 * lifetime pre-RB loss. In the terms that RakeTheRake uses, only the second summand is called SBR, while the whole thing is called RPV. (However, other affiliates tend to call the whole thing SBR.)
I.e. if you lose $1K first, then win $5K, then lose $1K, then win $5K, only the first $1K will count towards your SBR.
If you're a reg who wins pre-rakeback, then your RPV is half the old rake. You may get a bit more (0.6-0.7 of the old rake) for a few first months after you sign up with a skin if you go on a downswing at first. (Note that SBR-based rewards reduce the variance, as a by-product
)
However, 1) even in non-jackpot SnGs on iPoker, many regs lose pre-RB (survive due to RB only) because they're overraked (e.g. €20-50 superturbos have 8% rake), 2) in jackpot and Twister SnGs, the SBR method ignores the jackpot component, which is to regs' favour.
In a €10 Twister (the iPoker analogue of Stars' Spin & Gos), the jackpot component is €2.60 (and in lower BI ones, it's the same 26% of the BI). For the purposes of the SBR method, a €10 Twister is viewed as a non-JP €6.70+€0.70 SnG with a 3*€6.70=€20.10 prize pool (which is the minimum prize that a winner can get).
Therefore, if you have an ITM of less than €7.40/(3*€6.70)~37% in Twisters, then you generate SBR longterm, i.e. your RPV is more than 0.5 of your fees. E.g. if your ITM is 36%, your RPV is ~0.6 of fees, even though in fact you break even pre-RB [36%*3*€9.30 - €10 = €0.044 ~ €0) because you win a share of the JP component more often than a recreational (while the new system doesn't penalise you for that).
It's not known publicly what the JP component is in normal speed JP SnGs (Rio etc.), but I estimate (basing on how fast the JP grows and how many games are played on the network weekly) that it's 5-6% of the BI and the SBR system regards e.g. Rios as €17.10+1.70 non-JP SnGs with 9-10% rake. I.e. you're deemed breakeven if your ROI is -6% (quite typical of regs of Rios, btw), but again, you're in fact profitable in the
very long run this case because you're not penalised for winning the jackpot with a
way high probability than a recreational (who, in fact, has almost zero chance, while you might hit it once in several years, at least a few of my fellow regs have).
The bottom line is that,
if you're an SnG reg preferring jackpot formats but not a crusher, then 65% RPV can be better for you than old-method 40%, while for winning cash game regs, 65% RPV is close to old 33-35% longterm.
If you play MTTs as well on the side, then SBR is even more in your favour because RPV = fees by definition for MTTs, you're not penalised at all for being an MTT reg.
Last edited by coon74; 04-04-2015 at 12:00 PM.
Reason: typo in the Rio paragraph