My random thoughts on various points that I've seen thrown around in this thread that I agree/disagree on:

re: Banning ppl from sitting together when they're from same ISP
This is going way overboard. To put it in another context that you might appreciate, would you be pleased if Stars prevented you from sitting at a table because someone else from verizon, cogeco, rogers, aol, "name any big ISP" was on as well?

re: Disconnect/All in
I want to bring up two points regarding this.

First, the advantage of being all in with minimal $ invested has pros and cons. If you have a legitimate big hand, you're losing money...and if you have drawing hands you get cheap draws. It goes both ways.

Second, the point about being out of a hand but still getting dealt cards. My first reaction to this was that the colluder's would see alot of dead cards which would be extremely advantageous. Example Colluder A and Colluder B are in same hand. B posts ante and disconnects but still gets dealt cards. B shares all his dealt cards with A, thus A is at extreme advantage. Then I quickly recalled that TaoTao said that these guys all disconnected together, at the same time. So that prohibits my above example. Also, when disconnected, you're not seeing any of the dealt cards so obviously it can't be helpful.



My thoughts on this thread are, it seems a bit shady but if all that's happening is "sharing of hole cards", it's something that is extremely hard to prove and if you *do* come up with a solution, you will solve a problem that is much larger than just what you're seeing in 7CStud..as such problems exist in any online poker game....IMNSHO. The problem just seems more pronounced in your game because of the limited game selection. In the defence of the ChangLe players, if it's a town with one ISP AND Stars only has a handful of stud tables to choose from, what else can they do? Who knows, there could very well be some thriving 7 Card Stud community with local 'clubs' in ChangLe.

Someone mentioned 'player farm'. When I read this, I instantly thought of the World of Warcraft gold farmers


Good luck on your investigation.

This might be valid if one cheater disconnected while the other cheater continued to play with their hole-card knowledge. But if they shared each others' hole-card knowledge then one of them disconnecting while the other stays in doesn't make THAT big a deal more imo...because they're already cheating and sharing and intentionally disconnecting to begin with.
So disconnecting intentionally WHILE they are sharing probably doesn't increase their advantage exponentially or anything like that I suspect.
They're already getting the huge advantage by doing each thing individually supposedly.

But it was said before that they pretty much tend to disconnect at the same time supposedly due to a crappy ISP situation.
Is this true or not? If they have hands where one of them disconnects while the other one stays in the hand then that might be a bit more damning and tend to prove they are trying to take advantage of disconnect-protect at advantageous times. But we need to see proof of this happening with them. Because the previous allegation was that they all disconnected TOGETHER.
So the discussion has to be around whether they ALL get extra advantages when they accidentally disconnect all the time.
This talk of one person disconnecting while the other stays in the hand somehow giving them an extra advantage is kind of irrelevent if that is something they never do which I thought was what was said before.

Very nice Tao

It would be nice if you posted the VPIP and 3SR% for each. This stat relationship is quite rare in the general stud population, taken as a whole. The statistical possibility of them having roughly all the same pattern is impossible, IMO. This alone was enough for me to conclude they were partners, along with just too many WTFs.

The Best of Luck to your group. I hope everyone's privacy stays just as they would like

Having similar VPIP's if they learned the game together isn't that unbelieveable and doesn't necessarily mean they are partners.

They are actually allowed to talk with each other in real life and share strategy ideas and try to improve and play their best.
They are even allowed to all use the same pre-flop strategy chart if they like which really isn't that different from how a lot of 2+2'ers play limit holdem.
Right now we've just seen some VP's for these guys that are all similar which I think is about as contraversial as a bunch of Minnesota short-handed limit holdem 2+2'ers who know each other all playing in the 30/22 range or something.

In fact, many 2+2'ers limit holdem stats are so similar that when somebody shows that they are winning with a different stat from what most people consider the 'norm' it draws all kinds of attention.


I agree there are plenty of WTF's in the whole scenario combined that it should be worth looking into much deeper than perhaps what stars has done already. But again...trying to find the one aspect that supposedly PROVES that it's just too weird doesn't seem to be working.

Saying, "OMG...they all play VP30!" just doesn't seem like a big deal to me because I know a ton of limit hold-em players who pretty much play the same.
And then there are all the NL holdem guys who are 12/7 or whatever on full-ring and they all pretty much have the same UTG opening standards and 3-betting standards...or at least are more similar than not.


So looking at VP-30 for the Asian-Studs doesn't seem like a big deal.
Looking at actual HH's and other harder evidence might unveil something significant.

The similarity of many of their names also strikes me as very odd. Again, maybe they just know each other and help each other sign-up and work around the site since perhaps only a couple of them speak english and know how to do it.
Or one of them is an affiliate and signs-up a bunch of them and practically does it for them. I had a guy register one of my party-skin accounts when I was getting rakeback so that it would be done right.

So even that part which is suspicious is also explainable by potentially legitimate players.

Doesn't prove that they are legitimate of course. Just trying to figure out why 'normal' non-cheating folks might be doing this or that or the other thing and my extremely simple little mind is able to come with somewhat plausible solutions much of the time.

You could buy into stud games at Ongame for just the ante a while back. People were doing it and making money. You will win 1 in 8 hot and cold (assuming a full table) but a lot of your opponents are forced to fold and you are not. So you win more than 1 in 8.

Hope there is some useful conclusion to be drawn from any hands you get. IMO irrespective of this case there is going to be some 'true but unprovable' type behaviour going on somewhere.

[QUOTE=MicroBob;2224008]Having similar VPIP's if they learned the game together isn't that unbelieveable and doesn't necessarily mean they are partners.

BS Bob. Please read my post carefully. Its the relationship of VPIP to 3sr%, NOT VPIP alone. This gang's stat relationship, taken as a whole, is just statistically impossible if all the members are independent of each other. This stat relationship is quite rare while the 30% VPIP stat, by itself, is common. But you wouldn't know this because you don't play stud.

They are actually allowed to talk with each other in real life and share strategy ideas and try to improve and play their best.
They are even allowed to all use the same pre-flop strategy chart if they like which really isn't that different from how a lot of 2+2'ers play limit holdem.
Right now we've just seen some VP's for these guys that are all similar which I think is about as contraversial as a bunch of Minnesota short-handed limit holdem 2+2'ers who know each other all playing in the 30/22 range or something.

In fact, many 2+2'ers limit holdem stats are so similar that when somebody shows that they are winning with a different stat from what most people consider the 'norm' it draws all kinds of attention.

But we are not playing holdem Bob, its stud. Which you don't play.

Proof that if they studied/learned together and were trying to play similar styles that what they are doing is 'statistically impossible'.

I think you forgot to qualify that phrase with an 'imo'.
You just THINKING that it's statistically impossible doesn't make it so.

So absent any true analysis or actual proof I think it's more correct for you to say that you find it suspicious and/or unlikely and that I think it's worth looking into but COULD be potentially explainable for a group that learns the game together.

As I mentioned before...lots of holdem players from here have awfully similar stats including VP, PFR, AF, flop-ag, W$SD, etc etc.


I don't think you know that it's statistically impossible. I think you are just saying that it is.

Not being independent of each other is not cheating. I'm not saying I think there's nothing going on, and I hope your researches are fruitful one way or the other.

I wonder Bob if Poker Stars, with 100s of millions of stud hand histories on file, could do prove it. Lets say their playing style represents 1% to 2% of the entire stud population. Would this be good enough to meet the "statistically Impossible", in your mind?????

[QUOTE=sputum;2224621]Not being independent of each other is not cheating.

?????????????????

Hi
I’m choosing to be anonymous here. Anyone who plays stud on stars knows me. I’m a supernova player with an unfathomable # of hours logged multi-tabling middle limit stud at Pokerstars for about 5 straight years. (I play mostly 3/6, 5/10, and 10/20 but sometimes much lower and occasionally 30/60.) The Changle Gang permeates the full range of limits.

Sadly, I fear that the starting hand selection stats are not incriminating in and of themselves (although if Pstars ever takes this seriously I think they will find grievous proof of card-sharing cheating). Also, it is not common practice for The Changle Gang to collude in the most common and detectable ways (i.e. you won’t find them jamming up pots where one of them has a super strong hand). So, I’m going to focus on the undeniable. The Changle Gang is guilty of breaching Pokerstars rules regarding multiple accounts, and, they are guilty of selective disconnect abuse.

The Changle Gang is most definitely an example of a single user with multiple accounts and/or a group of users playing on multiple accounts that far exceed the number of individuals in the group. This is most likely a joint business venture with several people involved. Secondly, there is disconnect abuse from Changle that appears to be some kind of “get-out-of-jail card” to be used only in times of dire need and to be systematically mixed in with redeeming disconnects in unfavorable situations (usually at the lower limits). I have evidence of this as demonstrated by email exchanges from Pstars that, for example, identifies a very unfavorable disconnect at 1/2 limit as absolving data for two very suspicious disconnects at 10/20. These guys are smart, make no mistake.

The Changle Gang (I have some ideas on the actual makeup of this group of people but some might place my ideas into the realm of conspiracy theory) is clearly aware of Pokerstars’ rules regarding multiple accounts and disconnects and they have made efforts to mitigate evidence against themselves: in some cases changing account data so as not to hail from Changle, in other cases making attempts to randomize disconnects. Regarding the Supernova VIP Tournament, playing in the same tournament would be an obvious breach of Pstars rules regarding collusion and would bust them on their other more ambiguous practices.

It will be nearly impossible for anyone to produce hand histories that are completely incriminating. I can produce plenty of “suspicious” hand histories but that will not further this argument at this time (however, I will provide them if it ends up becoming appropriate). I have had endless email exchanges with Pstars regarding Changle over the last two years, to no avail.

Pokerstars, which has been an excellent organization with excellent security and customer service, happens to be looking the other way on this issue in the interest of enormous Chinese business. They have all the evidence they need regarding Changle Gang breach of the multiple account rules. It is up to them to take responsibility and enforce this rule.

Watch your backs people. This is bigger than it might seem.

cpa - they are allowed to learn similar style together.
this would make them not independent of each other without cheating.

"So absent any true analysis or actual proof I think it's more correct for you to say that you find it suspicious and/or unlikely and that I think it's worth looking into but COULD be potentially explainable for a group that learns the game together."

Bob

This is the point of the OP. Its the "group" thing or team, if you like. As you say "a group that learns the game together". "Together" is the key word. IMO its "together" in the classroom and on the tables.

assimilation - terrific post.
How could it be 'bigger' than it might seem?

This is not just about poker. It is about international business and politics.

"Watch your backs people. This is bigger than it might seem."

I had something happen to me yesterday at the tables, that was odd to say the least.
Is our privacy protected by 2 plus 2, in regards to our account and email information?????

CPA - it's supposed to be. But any mod who likes can look up your e-mail address at any time. I used to be a mod. There are lots of mods here and obviously you don't know many/any of them.

They can also look at the IP addy that you are posting from.

Obviously they aren't supposed to share it all over the place. But being a mod is a volunteer position and there are a heck of a lot of them.

assimilation - this is a golden post.
I have been eagerly awaiting for someone like you to come forward with his views on the Changle "gang", as you like to call it.
I would like to, publicly, deeply thank you for taking time out of your schedule and dedicating yourself in possibly resolving this scandal or by at least offering some credibility to my posts. Please keep up the great work you are doing as you just made me feel much more confident that Pokerstars will take this a lot more seriously in the near future.

I too believe in the possibility that Stars hasn't explored all angles of this and that some of assim's assertions might prove correct...although implying that Stars is practically complicit in their collusion ring instead of just potentially negligent at successfully finding anything damning seems a bit over-the-top to me.

Then again, a few months ago I would have found the idea of a super-user account on AP or UB to be entirely ridiculous and laughable. So I do admit that anything is possible.

They were convinced that TeddyFBI's mom was a bot a year or two ago and seem equally convinced that the Asian-studs haven't really done anything wrong.

I agree with the general feeling that if a lot of people feel something is really out-of-whack there's a decent chance that it is and it shouldn't be dismissed.

However, that's also the type of paranoia that leads people to babble on about how you can 'just tell' that the cards are rigged for action-flops, etc etc. You can't come up with any kind of 'data' about this. You can 'just tell'. And after awhile it really sounds extremely silly.

That's how SOME of this ends up coming off. But I agree that's there is enough here to arouse curiousity and some suspicion and I hope that Stars looks into this a bit deeper to really TRY to find something.


Regarding assim's hand-histories: I wasn't looking for anything that pointed conclusively to absolute collusion.
I think that anything that could be remotely suspicious should be looked at. You never know what other 2+2'ers might be able to see in those hand-histories, patterns, whatever that may help the case.

I think that a couple of the sharper and more strategic supposedly 'random' disconnects would be interesting to see. If ALL of the changle guys disconnected at the exact same time though as the guy in the 10/20 hand I'm still finding it hard to believe it was intentional.
But I do believe there is the possibility that they advantageously disconnect AND have some accidentals in there too.

So they don't build pots with big hands, they don't squeeze the innocent and they don't play the best hand. The most incriminating thing we're hearing so far is disconnect abuse. That is far from "collusion" and if it poses such a problem, why doesn't Stars just change the game to fold the hand when disconnected (like in Hold'Em)?

Hello,

We have extensively reviewed the "Fujian Province" / "Changle" Stud players on multiple occasions over a long period of time, including once quite recently. Extensive hand histories were reviewed looking for hole card sharing each time, and no hint of this was found.

They have also passed every bot review without any kind of a warning sign. They are definitely human.

That said, we are once again reviewing these players even now. Thank you for your patience while we conduct this additional review. We will not be able to comment on this review until it is complete, and even then we may not be able to provide anything other than general findings due to privacy concerns.


Regards,
Stephen W.
Manager, PokerStars Game Security.

What was it that happened?

I guess I can't remain anonymous with my registered user name for this forum!

RE the Changlites: I have been playing 1-2 thru 5-10 stud on Pokerstars for 5 years. I am a goldstar usually. For the first three years I made many thousands playing these levels. Then along came Changle. In 2006 in 2/4 stud I lost $800. Those of you who play with me should be surprised (did you hear that hushed gasp?). In 2007, I managed to level out to about 0 in 2/4and won at all other limits. I think the best way to beat them is simply to pound them. When you are ahead in the hand be relentless with betting and raising. They love o raise early and play their overcards so cap it early when you can with JJ and higher. You will win 2/3 vs. them in heads up. If there are 2 Changles dangling in the hand you may want to be more moderate.

I, too, have sent MANY emails to Pokerstars regarding these guys. It's never 'conclusive'. There are a few things I can conclude about these players:

1) They truly have bad, dial-up connections
2) Many are playing from Internet cafes
3) They frequently change their user names and cities
4) 50% of their disconnects are due to the connection, 25% are intentional free-shots at the pot and 25% are done randomly to throw support off the scent
5) They are definitely smart. Their tactics are practiced and consistent.
6) If there is two or more of these guys at your table, leave.
7) Not all of them are colluding. They may be colluding on HOW to play more than they are colluding at the table. They behave as a group like a collective poker soul.

May the Poker Force Be With You-Monkey

just want to add something about chinese internet connection to USA, they may have the best internet connection available (fast broadband) there and would still have those disconnect problems. Basically the internet connection between china and usa go through 1 or 2 cables that go cross the ocean, there are frequent disconnects sometimes due to the cable line being super busy or even broken (yes, it has happened before).

I was at china last year and have played on pokerstar a little bit, the connection was usually okay for me to play 4 tables, but the speed was pretty bad and there were disconnects. I was staying at a nice hotel with connection speed to local chinese sites at around 10MB per second. so overall, I dont think people should read into the connection thing too much.

Tao, dare I say, "yeoman's work" keep it up, dude.

Thnx to assimil and unc monk for chiming in, good stuff, folks.

i tend to agree with monk, at least at the low limits i play, either pound on them, or leave the table. i'm just a single table tag & i frequently do stupid stuff. i just play here when i feel like making it to silver star, usually on divorced dad off holiday years. i'm more of a micro's large field mtt player. Like I said in my earlier post, in my head i considered them a gang, but a gang of donks in my estimation. I also found it humorous the thought of a 3rd world "gang that couldn't shoot straight" cheating/collusion/hustling ring. The thought that comes to my mind now is, perhaps they use the micro's to cover their tracks in the middle and upper limits. i think unc really nailed it when he said, "collective poker soul" What ways can can we play against them at our various stakes levels, to exploit their collective poker souls and get them busted off Stars, all at the same time?