Unless you know all the variables and even if you did, it is very difficult to draw correlations. Posting PokerScout graphs no matter what they say will not definitively prove anything either way, but ESPECIALLy looking @ Tilt's graph. That's why I think the only worthwhile place to look is at Stars and even traffic numbers, as I said, don't prove anything because you can generate the same or more traffic and possibly bring in less revenue.
For your two scenarios, it is
possible Stars numbers could stay the same because they ran a promotion to make up for the players they lost or they lost 100 players in the 100NL to 600NL range but gained 100 players in the 2NL to 50NL range. Then, Tilt could have gained players because they offered 30% of players who didn't have rakeback a chance to get it or they lost 30% because they stopped accepting eChecks from a payment processor or closed an affiliate program or a million other reasons. The point is no one knows exactly what specific variables move traffic or revenue in any direction nor do we know with what degree it moves them. The sites have more access to those variables and they make their best guesses and try to position themselves to reach whatever goals they set for themselves.
All the opinions I've stated have been very specific in nature based on MY specific observations. They are that Stars is losing money in the 100NL FR to 200NL FR games NOW relative to BEFORE. Another way to say it: X = Summation of profit from 100NL FR to 200NL FR under current system from day 1 and Y = Summation of FR profit from 100NL FR to 200NL FR they WOULD have received under the old system. I think Y would be greater than X and the longer the new system goes on unabated, the more I think that gap will grow in absolute dollars. Now, F is Full Tilt's same profit during that time. Just because Y>X doesn't mean F>Y or F>X or any other correlation ratholers would like to make. And even if I am wrong about the dollar equation, there is still the quality of game and future of the game proponent that I think will hurt Stars in the future with these new changes.
For my limited case study of ONE person, I know they have LOST ~$1000 of rake from me since I left and I know that Tilt has gained ~$1000 of rake from me creating a ~$2k swing. This does not factor in other indirect benefits Stars loses from me because I am a player that starts games and keeps good games going. When my games get bad, I start new ones. I DO NOT believe you get more VIP's in 20bb to 50bb games compared to the same 20bb to 100bb games. This is based on MY actual results combined with common sense. Your results and path to common sense may vary