The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition - Page 668 - Internet Poker

Hey Mitch, been reading your posts for a bout a week now...Finally needed to log in and tell you, You're a tool. You sound like a QPW or Mont. Impersonator.(Broken Record) Out of your 3k in posts, have you ever wrote anything inteligent or posted anything to help anybody other then yourself?

Another waste of space...

Thanks, tk.

Yeah... if you check the "Stars SN Verification E-Mail" thread, you'll see I helped a guy (a guy that said he wanted to punch me in the face, in NVG, a few days earlier) write an email to Stars to get his account unlocked during verification. He's kind of like you... a good guy, but an idiot in need of desperate help.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 11:47 AM

#16677

tk1133

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,221

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mitch Evans

So would would you counter-act that by personally attacking somebody?

Quote

03-13-2010 , 12:00 PM

#16678

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

.

A CASE STUDY - HOW THE RIGGED BELIEVER'S MIND WORKS
The archetypal example

Before:

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

if I can be shown that I am running at least close to expectation I will move to the nonrigged side, no questions asked.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

When I see the proof come back I will be converted, I promise you....
Ive emailed support and when my HHs come I will email them to one of you.

here is all the info I want. I dont want any more or any less.

I want my total record in all in reflop hands and I want them broken down in catagories (50/50.. 75/25... 20/80... etc).

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

Ive probably seen more hands live/online than 95% of the posters here. One thing I am 100% sure of... the RNG is manipulated in some way. That I am sure of.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

I lose all in preflop confrontations at such an abnormal rate its ridciulous. ... If I am within 5% of expectation on any of the scenarios 20/80, 25/75, 50/50, 75/25 or 80/20 I'd stfu forever.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

Honestly, if I am even close to expectation in these catagories I will stfu forever about it being rigged and I will be converted to the legit side of the arguement.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

Honestly, if the results show, I will admit I was wrong. I am actually excited and genuinely hope I am wrong.

The Results:

Code:

327K Poker Stars Hold'em Tournament hands, AMEC0404
Checking only headsup preflop all-ins. 

Equity          Avg.        ActW                      
Bucket  Hands   Eq.*  ExpW  +1/2T  Act%  +/- 1SD   #SD
======================================================
  <25%    981  17.6%   173   162  16.5%  -11  12  -0.9
 25-35%  1745  29.7%   518   529  30.3%  +11  19  +0.6  
 35-45%  1387  40.4%   560   531  38.3%  -29  18  -1.6  
 45-55%  1638  50.1%   821   804  49.1%  -17  20  -0.9
 55-65%  1339  59.4%   795   782  58.4%  -13  18  -0.7
 65-75%  1571  70.4%  1106  1087  69.2%  -19  18  -1.1
  >75%    889  82.3%   732   733  82.4%   +1  11  +0.1

  ALL    9550  49.3%  4705  4628  48.5%  -77  49  -1.6
======================================================
Lost 0.8% more preflop all-in hands than expected.

The offset of 1.6 standard deviations from the mean,
tells us that about 1 in 18 hand samples this size will 
have worse luck.

* Note that the hand equities were taken directly from HEM, 
and they are suitless approximations using 169 generic hand
types.  This causes errors up to 1% in hand equities, but
should mostly cancel out in a sample this size.  Rather than
run these hands through a more accurate equity calculator
(which obviously isn't needed here) I wanted to just use the
tools available to all users.

Disbelief, And More Data Requested:

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

well I have [not] one shread of proof. Through 360K hands I run worse than 95% of anyone with that sample. I will find a way to see what that percentage is when you do this in terms of BB's won instead of # of pots won.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

I bet I know why nobody wants to do a BB analysis

The BB Results:

Code:

Equity    BB's
Bucket   Wagered    W/L    BB Exp   +/-
					
<25%	   20365   -14081  -13215  -866
25-35%	   27049   -11301  -11102  -199
35-45%	   20241    -1910   -3622  1712
45-55%	   22141     1103     147   956
55-65%	   19246     3158    3464  -306
65-75%	   27838    12097   11419   678
>75%	   22133    14924   14312   612
=======================================
          159013     3990    1403  2587
                     2.5%    0.9%  1.6%

Won 1.6% more BBs than expected. 
Or almost triple, depending on how you look at it.

The Conclusion:

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

I mean your results dont really mean anything here.
...
Maybe we misscommunicated

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

Final conclusion... Im more sure its rigged now than before

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

I really think most of you dont have a clue about this data and u r just agreeing with whatever sounds the best for your case.

This would make a good sticky.

.

Last edited by spadebidder; 03-13-2010 at 12:05 PM.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 12:08 PM

#16679

Cry Me A River

Orange is the new Green

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,784

Quote

03-13-2010 , 12:11 PM

#16680

tk1133

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,221

I'm sorry Mitch, perhaps this is why....I apologize for what I wrote, I looked up some of your past posts and it seems you are probably the opposite of what I assumed. With out any research or facts behind my accusation I can admit my ignorance.

TBH, I saw the personal attack towards somebody and jumped the gun. So for what it's worth I take that back.

Amec:
As for the quote above, this is what's wrong with the online poker world. We're all Poker players in the end.

This is one good thing that I respect and admire about the so called shills:QPW, Spade, Mont, Nfuego, Otap, KOF, Bobo, Arout...
You got 4 or 5 people, shill, troll, gimmick, proud poker player whatever you want call them, guiding you to seek the answers you're looking for.

It is what it is, they are personally helping you, Me, and everybody else that comes here with situations/perceptions that are debatable. That's the big picture. You can say they're misleading, wrong, or brainwashed, overall their view is that the glass is half full and that's a positive.

Nobody needs to respond to you, nobody needs to look over your HH's. Let's be honest if not for the people in this thread, you as I, would be lost. Yet I repeat, you feel this way:

Quote:

Re: The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

and I really don't care if others get converted. This is about my personla peace of mind and frankly I dont care about anybody else.

So you don't care about somebody else possible being cheated, only yourself? That you know better then the alleged shills....In the end, all they need/could do is flame you...

Last edited by tk1133; 03-13-2010 at 12:22 PM.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 12:12 PM

#16681

Monteroy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 16,729

Damn, spade found a way to be more evil than I am by being nice and polite.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 12:15 PM

#16682

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monteroy

Damn, spade found a way to be more evil than I am by being nice and polite.

I won't indulge someone like this again soon.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 03:49 PM

#16683

cds0699

LOSING

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 9,018

Hey guys, just checking in, is pokerz still rigged? Trying to stay up to date but I have been slacking.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 04:01 PM

#16684

AMEC0404

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 875

Im not sold that spade even knows much about stats and what is and is not relevant. Im positive that the other shills have no clue.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 04:05 PM

#16685

AMEC0404

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 875

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

its pretty much wellknown that HEM and/or PT3 are horrid at tracking wins and losses in terms of $$$$$$$$$$.

LOL @ you.

So you are saying that OPR and sharkscope have my ROI off my 120%?

honestly, you just lost all credibility with me. I was kind of skeptical how much you actually think you know about numbers, logic, and statistics, but now you've just blown that doors right off.

GG man, I appreciate your time and all, but hoesntly, you are starting to come across as a pretender

here is another question I have. How come this graph starts in 2007 when I have been playing on Stars since 2004?

Quote

03-13-2010 , 04:06 PM

#16686

AMEC0404

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 875

the graph where spade posts my winnings in tournies?

where are all my HHs prior to 2007?

do they not count?

did u scew the results?

Quote

03-13-2010 , 04:27 PM

#16687

Monteroy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 16,729

Quote:

Originally Posted by spadebidder

I won't indulge someone like this again soon.

In the end he is not really that significant a part of the equation anyway, as the research itself was interesting to see as were the results. Who really cares if he or any riggie gets it after, I always assume they never will and thus far my expectations have pretty much always been met.

The whole interaction process with genuine paranoid riggies or whiners or douches is easier once you just realize what they are and what to expect (and when they get a bit out of line how to smack them down a bit).

Guys like this are like a Barbie doll with a little string attached where you can pull it and he will keep saying expected things at each part of the process with no regard to how the process ever works.

After a while, just let the work speak for itself and let disposable humans like that do their variety of hissy fit routines they are always going to do anyway. Don't pay them much attention once you are finished with them, no matter how many times they wave their hands in the air. If left alone those guys just end up talking to themselves pretty much, which is also sort of fun to see.

Again, good work.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 04:36 PM

#16688

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

FYI - The HHs include 1892 hands prior to 2007, with 90 preflop all-ins. They are part of the data. There are also 4006 cash game hands prior to 2007, and those were not considered.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 04:56 PM

#16689

AMEC0404

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 875

U shills pretty much made urselves look stupid on this one. U talk like u know all this and that about statistics but when it comes down to it, you dont know ****.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 05:10 PM

#16690

pooflinger

adept

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 850

amec its clear online poker is bogus with these donkeys they hired to feed the general public bs

Quote

03-13-2010 , 05:23 PM

#16691

Arouet

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,433

Quote:

Originally Posted by pooflinger

amec its clear online poker is bogus with these donkeys they hired to feed the general public bs

I suppose you can articulate what was wrong with Spade's assessment then? Did you detect a methodological error or an incorrect conclusion?

Quote

03-13-2010 , 05:35 PM

#16692

pooflinger

adept

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 850

amecc ran like crap its rigged

Quote

03-13-2010 , 06:02 PM

#16693

AMEC0404

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 875

No spade did what I requested, and as far as I know it was correct. I have no way of verifying it until I do it myself. The responses that follow easily show hat these shills dont care about results and in fact they don't even understand them.

I thought you guys were statistically educated but its very obvious none of you know a thing about the subject. You are here to try and make online poker look as legit as possible, nothing more nothing less.

Seriously, how can a person run worse than 95% of people, yet be ranked in the top .5% of all players in terms of profit/ROI/winnings/etc?

Quote

03-13-2010 , 06:05 PM

#16694

Cry Me A River

Orange is the new Green

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,784

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

Seriously, how can a person run worse than 95% of people, yet be ranked in the top .5% of all players in terms of profit/ROI/winnings/etc?

Because poker is about more than just showdowns?

Quote

03-13-2010 , 06:11 PM

#16695

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cry Me A River

Because poker is about more than just showdowns preflop all-in hands (3% of his hands)?

fyp

Quote

03-13-2010 , 06:21 PM

#16696

AMEC0404

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 875

Shows you dont know anything about the topic. The biggest part of MTTs is winning showdowns, period, end of story.

We are talkin MTT poker here.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 06:31 PM

#16697

Bingo_Boy

old hand

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,872

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

I bet I know why nobody wants to do a BB analysis

Because you're a acting like a douche. Of course since this post somebody has kindly done it and you still acted like a douche

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

But ou know what, I made a loit of good points, and when they get made, thats when the shills come out and turn this thread into a circus so the good points made against their side get lost in all the BS

Which good points have you made?

Quote:

Originally Posted by tk1133

Hey Mitch, ... You're a tool. ... have you ever wrote anything inteligent

Good one.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

The responses that follow easily show hat these shills dont care about results and in fact they don't even understand them.

I thought you guys were statistically educated but its very obvious none of you know a thing about the subject. You are here to try and make online poker look as legit as possible, nothing more nothing less.

Many of the 'shills' don't fully understand the statistics but we trust someone who clearly does and we understand basic logic which you seem unable to grasp.

You'll also note that when spade showed that you were running bad we didn't refuse to believe that what he had shown was true. You on the other hand revelled in the proof that you were running bad in EV and then dismissed the BB data because you didn't like it, which looks a lot more like shill behaviour to me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AMEC0404

Seriously, how can a person run worse than 95% of people, yet be ranked in the top .5% of all players in terms of profit/ROI/winnings/etc?

Because you're really good?
Because you had some big scores that skewed your results?

Quote

03-13-2010 , 06:47 PM

#16698

AMEC0404

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 875

because the BB data is irrelevant and it is based off of biased data, anybody with any knowledge of statistics knows this.

I had one big score. Take that score out and Im still in the top 99%.

Quote

03-13-2010 , 06:48 PM

#16699

AMEC0404

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 875

Quote:

Originally Posted by spadebidder

fyp

u have my hands... if Im a winningplayer I must be running better in some other aspect.

I challenge you to find anywhere where I am running above normal. Anything that is not based on biased data.