FYP


FYP

You need some serious psychological help? I am guessing you are frustrated with your life or are some dumb ****** who has gone busto? Why are you even here you POS- when you are so smart ? Why are u talking to scholars like us ?

You are guessing alright, it is clear I am talking to idiots on this blog who can not even do poker math. The one's who can don't want to get involved cause of morons like you.

Mike Postle had plenty of idiots supporting him too, and when Veronika came out against Postle a lot of ******s like you were giving her a super hard time as well.

I rejoice at this though, the fact that this game has so many stupid players is just music to my ears. Will be happy to keep taking your money.

This is not about me, but you guys are so insecure you see it as an attack on your manhood lol

You could not solve the math problem I gave you I see. LOL No surprise there, but I am sure you did ok at vo tech lol

No reason I should be talking to uneducated morons unless I am taking your money :-) Prove you are not an idiot.

You have 8 percent equity, your opponent bets 30 into a 100 pot. What implied odds do you need to make this call???? Come on you stupid shits, I solve these problems, and I am saying right now I am much smarter than you ******s and you can not even understand the way I think.
But you want to prove me wrong? Then solve that problem idiot.

I will even give you ******s a big hint hee hee (1/eqxC) -( P+C) eq is equity, C is what you call, and P is pot. Come on idiots, show me you are not total idiots incapable of doing math.

PokerDefender

Please learn how to multi-quote. It's not diffcult, but let me know if you can't work out how to do it and I'll give you the simple instructions.

Thank you.

He is a dumb moron please explain this fool how to multiquote..

Pokerdefender were you always such a bad bbbiaatch or life came at you fast to make you the shitbag you have become?

Also we're you abused as a child ? Did people bully you to become a keyboard warrior that you have become ?

There is help for fools like you and I will be more then happy to help.

Went to CalTech.
Spent 8 weeks grinding $1300 at 10c poker rather than using his vaunted intelligence and skill to earn real money.
I guess CalTech must have fired some of their cleaners.

Those skills are enough to crush %90 of poker players out there. Do you really think that the average 1 2 , and 2 5 player is thinking on a super high level? lol If you do then you really are a major fish. And I know how to play very advanced when needed, though typically I hardly have to bother. After playing over 1 million hands online and analyzing leaks etc in poker tracker 4, I can basically crush you morons in my sleep. Trust me, it is very easy. This is my job now, it's all I do for money, and I am brilliant at it. Just wish I would have got into this game sooner instead of wasting my time on a **** game like chess where people figure out very fast what level they are.

All you live players have no chance against good online crushers. I am willing to bet that most of you could not even beat the 5 dollar buy in games, unless you are some stupid nit, probably the only level where that actually works lol. I will be serious money that you morons can not beat 10 nl at poker stars for a 50,000 hand sample size. No way you morons are going to do any better than 2 bb per 100 and most of you will certainly be negative.
You guys are arrogant and stupid, a wonderful combination for my opponents to have, and I do love playing idiots who give me their money.
The hardest thing about playing poker is not laughing at how bad most of you play. I mean seriously, sometimes you sit there and can not believe what you are witnessing lol, and I thank my lucky stars too :-)

Nice thing about poker is you idiots can delude yourself. In chess we have a rating system, and none of you mofos would be talking trash to me there, you would have your low rating and hang your head in shame. I am superior, and you are weak. Just the way it is, fishy fish.
I use advanced play relatively often, though it is amazing how you can pretty much play live with very little balance, well at least the weaker games, though typically players are so bad you can just play exploitative in a very risk free way at low stakes like 1 2 and 2 5.

The passive weak games are like that, the agro LAG games are easy to beat too, you guys play like idiots too. You are all incredibly stupid players. I would never say this, but only a few people see this **** anyway so whatever. At the table I would always give you respect and be very friendly, cause I want you money, and I actually like most people for who they are. Believe it or not I do not judge people, I have nothing against anyone I play against, but if you want a real evaluation of who you are, I do not mind giving it, at least online.
Jonathan Little himself said that if you can beat smalls stakes online, even micro stakes, you will crush 1 2 and 2 5 live games.
If you want a link to him saying this just ask, cause it is funny that most of you don't know this.

I have played online 2 5 quite a bit and those games are the softest yet, at least they are in the USA. Of course most American players are pretty stupid, which is wonderful, I do love you all so much :-)

Also, as I expected, no one could solve the simple implied odds math question I put out, I even gave you the formula, you guys are really weak, you guys really should be ashamed of yourselves lol. Apparently I'm talking to the bottom of the player pool on his forum. But that's OK, always happy there are so many people who are clueless playing this game, all the more money for me. Thank you guys.

The funny thing is that I am only here to tell you that Poker Stars NERFS their cash games, and they do, but you idiots feel that someone is saying they are smarter than you, and your little things just can not take it LOL. You all are stupid, so solve the simple math problem I gave you the other day or STFU cause you clearly are just total fish.
But if you want, I will be happy to put you in your place.
You guys have no chance against me, I am superior intelligence, and you are not. Funny that you think you can get someplace with nothing lol.

I am a smart American, not one of those Trump loving idiots. Living in the USA is really embarrassing sometimes.

My question to you isn't a two-second job in Flopzilla. To help you out, I'll rewrite the question in the simplest form possible:

Your hypothesis is that 4-8 straight flushes per night reaching showdown is normal, each and every night at your local casino. In 3,000 hands per night, that means a straight flush reaches showdown every 375-750 hands. On average, how many straight flushes should the casino expect to see reach showdown every night, using both hole cards to qualify for the high hand bonus? Detail the assumptions you have made in your answer.

I see, that is a question then, I was a theoretical physics major, and always kind of relied on calculators for statstics etc, a bit lazy, thanks to poker I had to actually really get into this stuff.
I do not know how to do it from practice, but pretty sure I can figure it out right here.

chances of a straight flush is .0000159308 pre flop according to google, (did not bother getting out flopzilla, but should be same) with random starting hand.
For simplicity we will say In 10 hours with 10 tables doing 30 hands per hour that is 3,000 hands so that means we have 3000 chances for someone in the room to hit a straight flush in 10 hours, that is .0000159308 x 3000 = .0477924 as the odds of one straight flush. To figure out what the chances of hitting 4 are in that time we just multiply the odds by 4, so .0477924 to the 4t power = .0477924 ^4 + 5.217174470649422 e^6

LOL, that is not really poker math, but guessing that is how it's down, I should know, but as I said I was mostly into physics type math, differential equations etc.

In any case they happen all the time in live games. You would not believe how many straight flushes I see. Go to Maryland Live, go to Parx, you name it. You will see I am right.
Poker Stars IS following the correct expected value. I REPEAT, Poker Stars IS following the correct expected value, BUT They have NERFED the variance for their cash games.

That is what you need to get. I am just F ing with you all. I do not hate anyone, but I am trying to break through your defense barriers to this concept.
The whole screaming and calling you names is a simple act. Just want to bring attention to this issue.
In real life I do not dislike other people or call them names, but I hope it shocks some of you into waking the **** up.

You would need to adjust for games being 6-9 handed and only allow straight flushes using both hole cards to qualify for a high hand (that's normally the case). That means players need to be dealt suited connectors, one gappers, two gappers or three gappers to start with. You could then figure out the odds of a straight flush if everybody goes all in pre with all of those combos and there's no further betting (i don't belive flopzilla can do this assuming both hole cards are used). Ignore card removal. If your expectation then is 3 straight flushes per 3,000 hands (for argument sake), then you can guarantee the live games are rigged, since players won't play all of those combos pre and won't have anywhere close to 100% equity realisation - since a hand like 73ss gets folded multiway on a flop like KhQh4s.

Everybody gets your hypothesis here, but you must realise it's flawed. In your coin flip example, would hhththhttt be evidence the rng is faulty, but hhtththtth not? Your 1m hand database can easily prove if the variance is too perfect jn the short term e.g. consistently shows hththththt. Just run AA vs KK all in pre and record the sequence of the AA or KK winning.

PS: move on from the poker math 101 books like Splitsuit and beginner coaches like Little. They are great for beginners getting the basics down and I would always recommend them, but they are overly simple if you want to beat good regs at higher stakes. Maybe in a US site you don't need much - I'm old enough to remember pre-Black Friday that you would always target tables with Americans. Solvers and solver training tools like GTO Wizard are the next step.

Literally everything about this calculation after getting the number of hands is wrong.
This is basic probability. If you have no clue about that you shouldn't be bragging about your math skills.

so, if you play 125543 hands, then the probability of hitting a straight flush is... .0000159308 x 125543 = 2

Way to spoil the game man. You gotta play the fish slowly.

You are an idiot, obviously the chances of straight flush are divided by 3000 hands if 3000 hands are played and then that is taken to the 4 th power. it is not exact but close.
Why would you not divide by the number of hands? and then why would you not take the number to the 4th power if you are expecting 4 straight flushes? Come on ****** explain that to us all.

Go right ahead idiot, explain this to us all? Cause we all know you are too stupid.

I have no doubt what I put up is not %100 accurate and I really do not care. I was mostly into differential equations, and poker math is not about doing that type of stuff.
Am not hear to impress any of you morons. I solved every math problem in Split Suits preflop and post flop math book. You idiots do that?
Nope.

I am not a statistics expert. I was a physics math major a very long time ago, frankly I can't do any of that crap anymore as it's been well over 20 years and I forgot.

This has never been about me, you ******s. It is about Poker Stars NERFING their cash games.
Ask me a real poker math problem you idiots, the stuff we use at the table.
I was never a statistics expert, and never claimed to be one. Hey if you want to think I am dumb or " not as smart as I think I am" who gives a ****, I just want your money *******s, and guess what, I get it :-)

That makes sense. Congratulations on your very basic math skill. lol To be honest I had to work pretty hard at statistics, it never came easy to me.
I actually had trouble with arithmetic in grade school, my brain works in odd ways. Turns out I can do a lot of advanced math, but have always had problems with easier math. Even to this day if you tell me it is the 12th and say, what date will it be in 7 days, I will not know if it the 18th 0r 19th lol.

Even when I was doing differential equations I could not do long division ha ha. Just used graphing calculators for that basic stuff, but I could not do basic multiplication either, not by hand. That is kind of strange, but true. I am not a savant, but there is some stuff I am great at and some stuff my brain is just slow as **** with.

Just the way my brain works. They say I am genius though, and they called me a " rocket scientist" at Caltech because I had problems doing the easy math, but could do the difficult stuff. LOL

In any case, I do not mind, I like learning, but I really don't have time to waste on anything that does not make money, so I stick to the poker math we use at the table. So far no one has asked me any of those problems. If you want to then feel free, if you don't know how then eat my S cause you are wasting my time.

I do not care about myself or have much of an ego, that problem is yours. Life has no meaning, I do not believe in god or anything, so who gives a ****. But hopefully I can screw some of your wives and girlfriends in the meantime and take your money :-)

And dick heads if you think you can get a Chess Expert rating without being far superior at games, then try playing chess and see how well you do. You idiots know I am superior, but you want to break me ha ha. You can't, I know where I am, I know who I am. I do not think I am perfect or the best in the world, but I sure as F am superior to you morons. That is a safe bet, maybe a few exceptions here, but so far they have not spoke.

So, we have someone who can't solve a basic probability question (hint - look up binomial distribution), doesn't seem to know the difference between multiplication and exponentiation, and by their own admission struggles with statistics telling us that the variance in Stars games is off. Ok champ.
You have no idea how to calculate, or even estimate, the expected number of straight flushes in 3000 hands, do you? It's only slightly less trivial than the puerile poker math you're bragging about, and anyone with even freshman math skills should be able to work it out pretty easily.
The fact you can't, and more importantly, have zero clue how to even start, displays your complete incompetence to even hold an informed opinion on Stars variance.
Btw, I was the University Medallist in my undergrad Science degree. Even though I don't play chess, I'm quite sure I'm smarter than you, given the evidence in this thread.

Edit: lol, I missed this gem: "I was never a statistics expert, and never claimed to be one."
You're making a claim about Stars variance THAT ONLY A STATISTICS EXPERT CAN MAKE. You complete and utter moron.

Idiot, when you are seeing 4 to 6 straight flushes a day in a 2000 hand session live for the whole room, and seeing 0 straight flushes in a quarter million hand session for just your own hands and then multiply that by 6 to ONE MILLION and 500,000 hands for the whole tables online on poker stars cash games, you do not have to be a statistics expert to see something is off, do you? You really are a moron, and poker stars loves doing you from behind.


I can solve any real poker math question you idiots throw at me, so far none of you idiots have been able to give me a question to answer. If you want to throw abstract statistics questions that are more or less proofs then I will take a stab at it for fun. See, unlike you idiots I am not trying to prove anything, and if I mess up that is OK with me. A real genius knows the limits of his mind and is not insecure about them. Funny that is divided when I should have multiplied. and of course you take it to the 4th power you ******. That much is correct, and you did not know it LOL, but my first mistake is truly that of a so called "rocket scientist" at least that is what people said who actually admired me quite a bit.

Also I have not done any real hard math in over 20 years btw. That was a long long time ago. I stupidly took up chess lol, which was a big mistake. I was never a math genius, I was a genius at physics. Math was just a tool for me. Physics is where I was talented. I could do the math, but I was not gifted at math, and never said I was.

I fully admit I am not great at doing that type of stuff, but over time can figure it out when my head is clearer. I can play chess without looking at the board sometimes very easy, other times I can not. Just the way my brain works, it's not perfect. But of course at Caltech I was called a rocket scientist. People knew I was a genius, but I have problems sometimes with easy stuff. Easy stuff that you no doubt excel at. You are very good at doing simple things. Science lol, I bet you think knowing at parabolic curve describes gravity is profound lol. The standards for undergrads are very low. I know all too well after having to grade many of your tests.

So idiot here is a simple math problem for YOU! A real poker math problem I might add, no pun intended :-)

Answer this moron, what implied odds do you need if you estimate that your hand has 8 percent equity on the turn and you call villains bet of 30 into a 100 pot. Effective stacks are 1000.
So what implied odds, that is how much do you have to make to justify this call on the turn since you are not getting correct pot odds for the call on the turn?
Come on idiot, try to answer? I solved this. Answer ALL my questions idiot, please try to, cause it will be funny, but hey,I will be impressed if you can answer this simple poker math question, but bet you can not :-). Also show your work, I want to see the equation you use, not some answer you got from an implied odds solver.

Think you can do that, dick head? :-) If this is too hard for you just say so and I will give you an even easier real poker math problem that you will also fail lol

Then someone in that room is cheating, and you're too dumb to realise it.
And no, you don't raise it to the the 4th power, you use the binomial distribution. Get someone who understands math to explain what that is to you.
You have around a 2% chance of not seeing a SF in 250,000 hands if your Google odds of a SF are right. You haven't run any HM filters to confirm you never had one of course, as it's much easier to bluster and just pull number out of your butt. The fact that you will have no clue how I calculated that should start to wake you up.

Your question, trivial as it is, is also incomplete, as you don't give an estimate of the percentage of time villain stacks off when you hit. The fact you left out something as fundamental as that shows the depth of your thinking. You'd drown in a teaspoon.

pretty sure this is monty on yet another of his accounts blackmailing his employers, showing them he can do as much damage as good to the industry if he doesnt get a raise.

This is a great comment but you directed it at the wrong person.

You win.

I am just trying to get the word out to you all, at least even some of these idiots now seem to understand the very basic thing I am claiming, even though they are too dumb to figure out the details, but that is a good start. I know they are idiots, but what I am saying is true. Start paying attention to how many big high hand bonus hands you see every half hour on the board at your local poker room, then compare it to how often you see straight flushes and quads from ANY player for online CASH Games on poker stars.
You will see for yourself. This is not about me, this is about protecting poker and saying F U to P Stars.

I do not have to do the work, you all will see it yourself. Remember I never said poker stars is cheating or rigging hands, I said they are NERFING their cash games by following the probabilities too close. Like flipping a coin and only have it come out heads tales heads tales heads tales ..... sequence say 1000 times in a row. You still get 50 50 result, but the variance is NERFED, Poker Stars does this but not in such an extreme way. If you guys are too dumb to understand that then I guess I should be happy that even a lot of people serious enough to join 2+2 are dumb too. Poker is alive and well with stupid players, and that is great.

You can be as pretty sure as you want, I'll be happy knowing I'm 100% sure I'm not Monty.
People sure have short memories here.
Edit - oops, I realised you are probably talking about PokerDefender. Sorry. Its late.

Let's go through this slowly.
Your calculation states above that the chance of a straight flush in 3000 hands is 0.0477924, or about 5%. This means you should see one straight flush about every 20 days on average.
So, first things first. Since you can't even use a calculator properly, lets note that 0.000159308 x 3000 is 0.477924. First basic error. About 48% chance per 3000 hands.
That's still not correct. The correct calculation p^n.q^(N-n).NCn, where p and q are the probabilities of getting or not getting a straight flush, n is the number of straight flushes expected, N the number of hands, and NCn is the number of ways the n straight flushes can be arranged in N hands.
Plugging in the numbers, we get the chance of NOT seeing a straight flush in 3000 hands is almost exactly 62%. You will see one or more 38% of the time.
Almost 2 days in 3 you do not expect to see a straight flush.
You claim to see multiple every night. There are two possibilities here:

A: You are wrong.
B: The casino, or someone in the casino, is cheating.

I'm going with option A, Eddie!

According to your calculation for 4 straight flushes, the odds of seeing 4 are roughly 5 in a million, or 200,000 to one. (This is laughably inaccurate, but you insist its correct, and even more incredibly insist that you see 4 per night despite it being, by your maths, a 200,000 to one event.)

So, what are the odds of 4 in a night?
One in 3000 hands: 29.6% or about twice per week.
Two in 3000 hands: 7.08%% or about once a fortnight.
Three: 1.13% or about once every 3 months.
Four: 0.00135 or about once every TWO YEARS.
Congratulations, you were out by three orders of magnitude. In both directions at once, that takes some true talent there.

Bottom line is, you're full of **** about what you are seeing at your card room.

edit: the above assumes every hand that can make a sf gets to showdown or never folds until a sf is impossible. It also includes hands where the sf is on the board, or only 1 card is used from a players' hand. Thus, high hand sf qualifiers will be somewhat rarer than this.

I already stated that type of math is not what I am particularly good with. I admit I am not totally sure how to do it. I do know that you multiply probabilities together to see the possible outcomes, then divide by the times played. That is basically how it is done. If recpricol than you would multiply instead of divide. Right idiot? For the first step.

In any case I am sure I can figure it out if I spend the time thinking about it, but rather have you tell us all.

BTW dummy, I was wondering one thing. If you are up against two ranges where 22 percent of their range is flush draws? Than how much more likely are you to be up against a flush draw with 2 villains, where for simplicity they have the same range? Honestly not sure how to do that one, and I should know how, so if you want to teach me here than let me know.
I may figure it out today if I spend enough time thinking about it, but at the time don't know.

I just kind of skimmed statistics and chemistry in college. I could do the stuff on the tests, but they were not my specialty. I generally studied one night before the tests and never went to those classes. I got a B in chemistry because I skipped lab.
Of course at Caltech it was all pass or fail so you could sometimes get away with choosing.

Funny thing dummies, just this weak had a royal flush at our table, saw at least 6 other straight flushes during no more than 20 hours of play.
All the quads you can think of. This year I saw TWO bad beats.
But you ******s think it is normal to play 3000 hands a day on poker stars cash games and see hardly any real action for months. You are idiots.

I crush poker stars cash games. Something you morons could never do. You poker tournament idiots are the biggest joke. Everyone knows that cash games are much more difficult than you short stack easy games.
I know most of you morons are just tournament players who could not crush cash games to save you life.

Ask me a real poker math question idiots. So far not one of you has don this, because I do not think you can, or you know I can and don't want to let me do it lol

**** you all. I do not care if you ******s think I am stupid or whatever, I just want to get even with poker stars, and I will do so by making this clear to people.
It is not hard to do. Then again, honestly I am making enough money that i may not even bother. Really depends on how I feel, obviously though I will do my best to wake a few of you morons up.
I am superior to all you 1200 chess rated idiots. The funny thing is so many of you know that you are pea brains.
But you are all stupid, and probably mostly a bunch of 20 something morons, but I love you all, you idiots are typically huge fish.

The above is poker math you f'n taterhead. You're even a terrible troll. 10NL hero, plays for years, cannot move up in stakes.

Another three levels up the ladder of intellect and you'll be a turd.

Monte is far more articulate than this PokerDefender nitwit.

Note well that our friend PokerDefender said that he attended CalTech, but never said that he actually graduated from there.

And you don't have to be a genius to get to be a chess expert. I was once rated USCF Expert (peak published rating was 2002 in 1987) and I was just a "C" student in college.

addendum: I also play on Lichess; my blitz rating is about 1860 and my rapid rating is just over 2000.