Thanks Monteroy,
I was just thinking about this - I should ask what is the probability of this event if I play 5000 games.
No point in cherry picking.
Math? Just 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 ...
21 times. Than you multiply number you get with 1 mio and you get x : 1 mio.
The last result was 162 to 1 mio. I meant 162 times in 1 mio with this. (in a single event)
Maybe the issue here was only my English.
I hope this is the right way to do it.
EDIT: ohhh yeah, I did manage to not see your first reply.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
...It is 0.66666 ^21 which ends up being .00020048 which is just under 1 in 5,000.
My result is 1 in 6,160. Close enough for me. And this number seem to be far from being scary even if I go on with cherry picking.
EDIT: If you are right and result is 1 in 5,000. So if you play 5,000 games you should expect this event to happen exactly once on average?
Thanks for all the help. I think I learned something new about probability.
For the record...
...
I've played only 166 games
Last edited by Mike Haven; 03-14-2020 at 12:24 PM.
Reason: 3 posts merged