The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition - Page 2949 - Internet Poker

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The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

View Poll Results: Is Online Poker Rigged?

Yes

3,503 34.87%

5,610 55.85%

Undecided

932 9.28%

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Page 2949 of 3722

First

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Last

11-14-2014 , 07:50 AM

#73701

SquirtsMeatPack

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 115

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonkeyStars

The third flush card hits way more often than it should, I assure you. Anyone playing online poker can confirm this.

... by filtering his database appropriately.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 08:00 AM

#73702

huntsman41

adept

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 881

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonkeyStars

The third flush card hits way more often than it should, I assure you. Anyone playing online poker can confirm this.

Stop trolling this matter donkey. If you could prove it you would have by now. My guess is you checked and found out that once again you were wrong.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 10:02 AM

#73703

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonkeyStars

BTW everyone...what are are odds of 3 of the same suit community cards appearing by the river? Not neccesarily that someone has the flush, but just the chances of 3 same suited cards on the board?

The chance there are at least 3 of the same suit on the board by the river is 51.8%.

((COMBIN(13,3)*4)*COMBIN(49,2)) / COMBIN(52,5) = 51.8%

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonkeyStars

I know for a fact when there's 2 of the same suit cards on the flop, there's a 36% chance a third one will hit by the river.

Quote:

Originally Posted by huntsman41

Pretty sure it is 34.97%, but lets not split hairs.

Yes, when you hold two of a suit and two are on the flop, the chance to complete the flush by the river is 34.97%. But that's not exactly what he asked. Here's two other possible interpretations:

1. If I don't hold a heart and villain has a heart flush draw on the flop, what is the chance he completes it by the river?

36.4%

2. If I see two hearts on the board at the flop and I don't have any, what is the chance another heart hits by the river?

41.7%
(this is without regard to whether anyone is on a flush draw)

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 11-14-2014 at 10:18 AM.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 11:56 AM

#73704

DonkeyStars

banned

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,018

Well it damn well hits more than 41.7% of the time! It's about 80 or 90% that it hits.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 11:59 AM

#73705

huntsman41

adept

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 881

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonkeyStars

Well it damn well hits more than 41.7% of the time! It's about 80 or 90% that it hits.

Liar.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 12:11 PM

#73706

mchine

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 568

Quote:

Originally Posted by huntsman41

Liar.

NewGuy will verify that it is theoretically possible for flush to hit 80% of time in Donkeystars limited amount of hands. He may not necessarily be lying.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 12:28 PM

#73707

huntsman41

adept

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 881

Quote:

Originally Posted by mchine

NewGuy will verify that it is theoretically possible for flush to hit 80% of time in Donkeystars limited amount of hands. He may not necessarily be lying.

He is.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 01:02 PM

#73708

DonkeyStars

banned

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,018

Flush draws hit 80% at least and I'll prove it when I get home and fire up PT4.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 01:23 PM

#73709

LukeSilver

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 918

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonkeyStars

Flush draws hit 80% at least and I'll prove it when I get home and fire up PT4.

fantastic and will this be like an actual definitive quantifiable evidence, or will it be a selective sample cherry picked from data that is manipulated already by the circumstances.

EG are you going to show all in flush draws from your entire hand history data base or

hands cherry picked from a particular isolated stage of your data where you may have ran bad, that are only taking showdowns that got to the river and showed and not factoring in hands that folded missed flush draws and etc?

Quote

11-14-2014 , 01:26 PM

#73710

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by mchine

NewGuy will verify that it is theoretically possible for flush to hit 80% of time in Donkeystars limited amount of hands. He may not necessarily be lying.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonkeyStars

Flush draws hit 80% at least and I'll prove it when I get home and fire up PT4.

If he does the filter correctly then it's essentially impossible (so close to 0 as to not matter). The correct filter is all showdowns where the flop contained two cards of a suit. Then count how many times the full board contained 3 or more of that suit.

If his filter turns up more than 50 or so showdowns where the flop had two cards to a suit, then the claim that 80% of those had 3 to a suit at showdown just didn't happen, period. But if he's only looking at 5 or 10 hands, sure anything can happen.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 01:36 PM

#73711

LukeSilver

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 918

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

I would bet money that if he provided a full hand sample it would not be 80% of those two cards showing 3 cards of a suit at showdown.

However you have to remember that people will fold busted draws on the river most of the time so the hands that do show down will have a higher % of 3 cards to a flush then should if you just looked at how often it got there.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 01:38 PM

#73712

DonkeyStars

banned

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,018

Lol there's way more than 50 hands that had 2 of the same suit on the flop. I'm guessing more like 25,000. And 80% of those ended up with 3 to a flush by the river.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 01:40 PM

#73713

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonkeyStars

Lol there's way more than 50 hands that had 2 of the same suit on the flop. I'm guessing more like 25,000. And 80% of those ended up with 3 to a flush by the river.

I would bet a lot of money against this with a verifiable hand history.

Make sure you filter for the same suit at showdown as the one that had two on the flop. And don't count flops with 3 to a suit. Even if you fudged these things it still won't be 80%, but at least do an accurate study.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 03:37 PM

#73714

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonkeyStars

Lol there's way more than 50 hands that had 2 of the same suit on the flop. I'm guessing more like 25,000. And 80% of those ended up with 3 to a flush by the river.

You are stupid.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 03:45 PM

#73715

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by LukeSilver

However you have to remember that people will fold busted draws on the river most of the time so the hands that do show down will have a higher % of 3 cards to a flush then should if you just looked at how often it got there.

True, but this bias won't come even close to closing the gap between the ~42% expected and the >80% that he claims he sees.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 04:51 PM

#73716

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Actually you shouldn't filter for showdowns, only that the river card was seen.
The claim isn't based on showdowns.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 05:19 PM

#73717

Dochrohan

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 4,214

I don't know who is more stupid the people who buy into trolls or the troll.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 09:07 PM

#73718

GreenZen

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 324

hi , look my higher pocket pairs keep loosing on an insane rate at pokerstars in the 180s once we reach 300 big blind , that when theres about +- 35 players left

I know its not selective memorie as it keeps happening every sessions , its very frustrating to keep getting out of a 5 hour mttsng when u have 81% to win and when close to money or final tables , but it keeps happening .

Can anyone help me to show this to community by helping me with holdem manager setup to check this as i have little experience with reports on it ,
im sure something is wrong....

Last edited by GreenZen; 11-14-2014 at 09:16 PM.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 10:00 PM

#73719

TiltedDonkey

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 2,975

Quote:

Originally Posted by GreenZen

I know its not selective memorie as it keeps happening every sessions

lol

Quote

11-14-2014 , 10:37 PM

#73720

GreenZen

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 324

i will post all my 180 games for ure own analyzes if necessarie , no im not a troll i have 42% roi at them but i know im being limited so...

Quote

11-14-2014 , 11:35 PM

#73721

SquirtsMeatPack

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 115

Quote:

Originally Posted by GreenZen

i will post all my 180 games for ure own analyzes if necessarie , no im not a troll i have 42% roi at them but i know im being limited so...

So many people refuse to take communication seriously. This is a descent. I apologize if English is not your first or second language.

Quote

11-14-2014 , 11:51 PM

#73722

huntsman41

adept

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 881

Couple of people have mentioned filters for Donkey, and so far only told half the story.. Need to use a couple to give you the result. As one person said to count them up, and there is no need to count at all.

First run with filters "suits on flop two cards any one suit" and "Saw river".

Note how many it is and then run same filter but add in, "suits on river three cards any one suit".

That will give you result of if the two cards made a flush or if a backdoor flush would have happened too.

I thought Donkey was from the UK? If so hasn't he finished work yet? It's like 3am now. And the fact he said he had like 25,000 tells me he didn't do this method.

Quote

11-15-2014 , 04:35 AM

#73723

DonkeyStars

banned

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,018

Right, PT4 must be in on the rig. The filters don't seem to suggest anything is wrong but I know for a fact they're lying.

I mean no one can remember hands they played 6 months ago. I'm going to suggest PT4 keeps the 'real' hands for the first 2 months, but after that the data gets altered so everything looks statistically normal. Because the flush draw hits every single time when I play, I know it does.