I know it's a waste of time, but I'll try one last time anyway, just for the hell of it.

There are a number of hands villain might have played the way he did. This will vary from villain to villain, of course. The best you can do is put the villain on a range of hands, and base your play on that range.

What you apparently did (I actually believe you may only have done this after the fact to try and prove you were right, but for the sake of argument let's assume you actually did this at the time) was guess that he had one particular hand in that range, and this time, you guessed right. But that doesn't make it a sound strategy, as other times you will guess wrong, and the play will then be obviously terrible. Well, it's actually no worse or better than when you guessed right; it's just more obvious to a results-oriented person like you, because you'll see all the money you lost.

Putting a villain on a range of hands is going to be less precise, but much more accurate, and give you better results. Guessing at what hand a villain might have is going to be very precise and make it quite easy to decide on what plays to make, but will be quite inaccurate. And when I say "guessing", I understand that you're not making a wild guess, but you are making a guess, even if it is somewhat educated. Don't kid yourself into thinking because you guessed right this time, that you knew what he had. That was just one possible hand he could have had, based on how he had played.

In a nutshell yes and they have been for years. That is exactly what they are doing, and protecxting the * image* of online poker, this being a big forum. If they can convince one person a day that thy can trust depositing its job well done.

Well, then maybe he would try to flat with AA or KK or QQ or AQ and get more chips out of you. And of course, even if he sometimes flats with AK, that doesn't mean he isn't still flatting with 88,TT,maybe J9 or QT, etc. And while he may bluff raise AK on the flop, that doesn't mean he isn't value raising the 88,TT,J9,QT, etc. You obviously have no reason to just put him on exactly AK.

And I agree he probably didn't play it the best. Probably better to 3bet pre with AK. However once he calls OOP, I like the check/raise with AK on that board. It is a good bluff hand here as it blocks some combos of AA,KK,AQ,KQ for you and itself has some equity with the 2 overs and a gutshot to the nuts (and maybe a BDFD; you didn't mention whether this existed). With respect to calling your shove, you didn't give enough information for us to tell if that was good. It depends on stack sizes and the betting sizes throughout. But without knowing all of this information, I can guess that there is a decent chance that villain played this hand better than you did, even if he didn't play it too well.


Even vs. his bluffs (AK,AJ,KJ,97s,maybe some others) you have at best around 57% equity as has been pointed out you had against the AK. Against KJ you have less (I would guess you would have right around 50% equity against KJ). And against his value raises you have around 10% and less equity.

The fact that he happened to have AK this time is irrelevant as there are obviously other hands in his range also (meaning that there are other hands in addition to AK that he will play exactly this same way, so sometimes he will have AK and sometimes he will have one of these other hands) and you had to make a decision before he showed you his cards. If you just pick out one of the hands that he could have and play as if that is the only hand he could have, then generally you will end up losing in those spots overall. Sure, this time he had AK and you were a smallish favorite with 57% equity, but sometimes he'll have J9 or 88 and you'll have 1% equity (a bit more against J9 I think, but maybe actually a bit less against 88 [somewhere around there anyway]). (And obviously there are other hands he can have as well, some of which I mentioned above and/or in my last post before this one).

But as I stated above, even against his bluffs you have only 50something% equity. That is against his bluffs. Against his value raises you often have equity in the single digits.



Flop is a pretty easy check/fold and there isn't any way to make c-bet/shove sound anything other than crazy and awful.

a funny misclick story - don't ever do this:
I'm in like hand #3 of a sng today and look down at KK from mid pos. i get the field thinned out to h/u with the btn after a 4bet. pot is pretty large now even at that level. the flop comes a wonderful uncoordinated rainbow board you dream about with KK. i'm all set to fire a nice 2/3 pot size bet and accidentally hit MIN BET! foe re shoves and with my tail between my legs I have to make the call. he flips 10 10 and naturally a 10 hits on the riva. got stomped on like walter mondale against ronald reagan in the '84 elections.

You could be the next magic612 if you made poker videos.

Also, to take the easy bait:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

164,381,184 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
ak	46.05%	75,311,328	758,292
55	53.95%	88,311,564	758,292

Sad but true. It is business though. Ill admit ive been playing on sealswithclubs for almost a year now, made over 2 btcs knowing that a software program deals the cards which produces certain patterns. One would be: never play the next hand after winning one. You are certain to get a set up or no hand at all.
If you play a good game and think its random, you wont get very far.
After I ran a profit up to 2 btc, the suckouts came down HARD and lost a good amount. Stopped playing and went back after a while. Same thing still happened and lost some more. Cashed out completely. BUT, made a deposit. Able to run up some profit now, but have to be very careful. Play one table and watch everything that goes on, etc. Of course people who play there will agree, only these employees/affiliates, etc, wont see it. SHOCKING isnt it!
Seems like 2 btc was my limit with no deposit.

As you can probably tell from this I did get a sweet new player hook-up!

If you want a good laugh(if it was actually funny) go to the probability section. There is a thread "is pokerstars rigged". You quessed it! the same employees are over there working that one too. the dude with the 3-eyed fish avatar is telling everyone that PS deals a random game LOL.

FYP. Even if he was behind, you do know calling with ace high was the correct play if he knew what you had, right?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKBKoSyTEAE

Even pros makes mistakes


You made a good read ( well done ) but he outdrew you. That's poker. Happens all the time. I hit flush he hits boat. I hit straight he rivers flush.. I hit trips he hits bigger trips.

Just take pleasure in knowing that like most idiots he couldn't lay down AK pre or post flop, and you were such a good player that you read him right.. You should be proud

So you take breaks and lunches on sunday nights and holidays, interesting. My god dude, give it up.

I knew that time will come, when rigtards will call me a pokerstars employee, even though I am professional accountant working for Telecom company and playing poker no more than an hour per day, due to lack of time. Especially in a tax season.

You will never win anything at poker, be that dollars, euros or bit coins, because you have a mindset of a loser and that will never change. You will continue to whine on this forum for amusement of real players and boost their rolls by keeping depositing on a site that you think is rigged.

Keep that up. The entire poker economy is run on the backs of losers like you. As a player who never deposited on stars, but cashed out thousands, I thank you for that work.

This needs a meme, or a sign, or something to memorialize it.

So your hand histories only include all-in hands? And what do you mean by "detect"? Your hand history contains everything that you ever observed at the poker table, and more. Everything is in there, period, and you can pull out any statistic that you can dream up to analyse. You seem to think hand histories can only be used to generate an all-in EV statistic, or something equally loony.

Every time you post it gets stupider. Just stop.

I don't need to trail through a load of hand histories to know I get sucked out on far too much. I can use my eyes and I see what's happening at the poker table instead.

[x] 53.95% is greater than 46.05%
[x] I put every chip into that pot as a favorite.
[ ] You're actually the poker genius you claim to be.

It was a non standard play but in a tourney you need to accumulate chips faster, and I had a pair, and chances are he didn't have a pair since you'll only get a pair on the flop 35% of the time. Plus fish love their AK hands and will hold onto them when they miss as if they're made of gold, so I figured with the minraise it was probably AK. Also I just got a feeling villain had AK.

If he knew villain had AK he'd GII on the flop.

The true beat here is that you're an accountant and so are doomed to a life of excel spreadsheets and office politics. To get your kicks (cos let's face it, finance is very, very boring) you come here and act like you've made thousands at the game.

Let's face it if you were really raking the money in from online poker you'd have dropped that accounting bull**** like a hot brick.

And I know what I'm talking about, I spent 3 months in one of those horrible places. A more soulless and depressing existence is hard to imagine.

This is almost certainly just a cover up and you're working for stars though.

The true beat, as you like to put it, is that you will never make any money in poker for the rest of your life, and I always will. When it comes to finance, however, the industry that you work in will always dictate how exciting or not the job is. But thats not the reason people study accounting, they do it to make money, lots more than you will ever be able to make. You see, in both professional and poker career, you will always be a laughing stock as you are here. And that is what depressing. Making thousands of tax free income out of your hobby on top of your pay cheque is actually pretty fun. But that, as I already mentioned, is something that you will never be able to experience, as you will always lose as losers do.

Oh, well if you "just got a feeling", I guess that changes everything. I was unaware that you had ESP.




P.S.

I was wrong re: vs. KJ and 97s as I was too optimistic. Against KJ and 97s you are only 45%.

Against AK you have 58% equity

Against A9, you only have 57% equity.

Against K9 you are only 56%.

Against 76 you are only 59%.

You are barely ahead of his bluffs. And crushed vs. his value hands:

Against 88 you have 0.9% equity.

Vs. J9 you have 3% equity.

Vs. AQ you have 9.5% equity.



Vs. a range of 88,TT,QTs,J9s,K9s,AK,AQ,AJ,KJ,A9s,97s you have 37.5% equity.




But I guess if you "got a feeling", then you "got a feeling".





EDIT:

Most of that is even really only addressing the play after villain raises. But a flop of QT8 just nails his pre-flop calling range. All of his broadways have at least an overcard and a gutshot. Other broadways paired the Q or the T, some with a gutshot. JJ and 99 probably won't fold. He can have JTs, 98s type stuff with a pair and a gutshot. Basically your cbet will get called or raised a lot and as illustrated above, when it does, your 55 does not have much equity.

Check/fold flop.

So if you're making so much money from online poker why do you choose to sit in an office cubicle 10 hours a day or more moving data around in excel? Why not quit, and spend all day on the poker sites, never having to answer to anyone and having your whole income tax free?

Oh yeah that's right, because you're probably a microstakes grinder who has made, at best, $2k a year. Probably more like a couple of hundred dollars really. You joined the forum in 2012, well after the so-called 'boom time' of poker is over, and you expect me to believe you're a nosebleed crusher now who just happens to only play 1 hour a day because of his oh-so-fulfilling finance job? Pur-lease.

And I could easily make shedloads from poker if stars and 888poker wasn't rigged.

As if anyone's got time to work all this out when the game gives you 20 seconds to make your decision! It's hardly like I've got time to start working out how much equity I have against every hand out there, and there's not even time to get pokerstove to do it for me. You just have to pick the most likely hand villain had (AK) based on reads and any feeling you get about the situation, and go with it.

Right, the coin came up tails when you bet on heads and you're acting like it's the next PotRipper. Quote the claim, soon to be rebanned troll.

Actually not so much. Also, it pays very very well. Much better than losing at poker does.

The coin always comes up tails, that's the problem.

Your attitude certainly implies you believe yourself to be a high and mighty poker genius. And if I get banned I can always create another account, whereas you'll always have an attitude problem no matter how many posts you rack up from a single account!

Oh get real, you're talking to someone who actually worked in one of those environments before I thankfully made my escape. The job I had washing up dishes when I was 14 was more intellectually stimulating. Also the girls in finance are hideous. Every. Single. One.

If kthxbye was really raking in the monies with online poker, there's no reason he wouldn't quit his job, sell up, move to a nice hot country and sit by the beach grinding up 'thousands'. Yet he doesn't. Why do you think that is? Either he's FOS or....nah, that's about the only option.

[ ] Posters ITT think they're geniuses.

[x] Posters ITT think you're an idiot.

You missed this EDIT to my above post so I'll just throw it here:


And to answer this post of yours .... you are wrong. You do not just pick villain's most likely hand and go with it. That wouldn't work at all. What if his most likely hand is a hand he has 60% of the time and you have 55% equity vs. that hand and the other 40% of the time you have 5% equity? Well if you just play as if he only ever has the hand he has 60% of the time, then you'll end up losing a lot because you'll get it in and find that 60% of the time you are slightly ahead and 40% of the time you are crushed. (.6 * .55 + .4 * .05 = .35% ------- I'm not entirely sure that this formula actually works, but even if not it should illustrate the point which is all I was going for so I'm not going to think about whether or not ti actually works)


And you shouldn't need to work anything out to know that 55 has dog**** equity against a range that will call/raise a cbet on a QT8 board. You should be able to tell that if villain has any pair, then you need to hit a 5 to improve to be better than him and there are only 2 fives left in the deck and two cards to come, so you're only about 10% to get another 5 assuming you see both he turn and the river. Even if villain only has 2 overs and a gutshot, then he has 10 outs vs. you plus the possibility of the board counterfeiting you. Even just 2 naked overs has 32ish% equity against you, though there actually aren't even many of those as most overs have at least a gutshot also. A7,A6,K7 and K6 would be naked overs. (While checking this, I discovered that even J6 has as much as 42% equity against you.)


You should play around with equity calculators away from the table to learn what equity different types of hands would have on different board textures vs. different ranges. Then during a game you can estimate your opponent's range and estimate your equity vs. the range on the given board. Obviously, you won't be able to calculate it exactly in game.

If this was true, it'd take 5 seconds to filter for and prove. Nope, just someone who doesn't give a **** about your dumb coinflip loss. You're not special, you don't deserve to win every pot you have a tiny edge in, and no one ****ing cares to read about standard hands you lost.

This is one of my first few hundred tournament hands from Stars a little over 5 years ago:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

990 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 6 4 K

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
6d 6c	98.38%	974	0
Tc Kh	1.62%	16	0

Step your beats up, bitch.

Oh god, you lost with a set in a $1 buyin tournament, how did you ever manage to recover from this catastrophe?

They sure paid you back pretty well though over the last 5 years. Because now they've stacked the rig in your favour so that it takes money off other players and funnels it into your bank account. No wonder you defend stars.

But it came up heads for someone else in that hand. Are you saying you always lose against everyone else in a coinflip (i.e. it's rigged in favor of everyone else)?