Quote:
Originally Posted by noremorze
They're probably right about them being fish. Regarding the under pair on the flop, this is read/opponent specific. For example, If i have reads on opponents that he always overbets the flop as a bluff, i have no trouble calling him down light. (it works boths ways, even the bluffy opponent sucks out on the turn or river when i decide to make the call) Sometimes, i have made such calls while i'm tilted and clearly should have folded and got saved on either the turn or river, that's poker. (most of the times i do NOT get saved)
To give you a simple example from yesterday: I had QQ and got called by an aggro fish in the blinds..Flop came K3x, he c/r allin..since i did have some reads on him that he was an aggro bluffy fish, i called his shove..and he showed A3..he rivered an A for 2 pair. Tough luck.
Perhabs i have stats on you that you will always c-bet and c/f the turn for a high %. Then my cards don't really matter all that much, since im calling you and plan to bet the turn and expect you to fold alot when you check. Some of those times you actually do have a good hand and I spike a 2 outer on the turn. Note that i did not call your flop bet and knew i had to spike a 2 outer. Handreading doesn't work that way, you don't put opponents on 1 hand.
You're also implying that somehow they knew that they needed a runner runner to win, what's more likey is that they made bad calls and got rewarded. (and yes, that does happen live aswell) Instead of getting mad about it, just know that you got your money in good and you made your opponent make a mistake. If you continue to make the same play and your opponent does aswell, you win money in the long run and that's all that matters.
Maybe you have tilt problems, i suggest to read a few books regarding that issue.
Can we all just use '
Perhabs' here as a private joke?
I don't think any one example is useful to anybody for our purposes here, but thanks for the illustration anyway.
Actually, this touches back on my thoery. Like you, I've tilted and played very badly from time to time, overcalling/betting bad pairs, chasing overpriced draws and such. Who hasn't? And why not right? The fish are always catching so why not me? And much to my surprise didn't I get rewarded for it far more often than expected! Yes, it happens, but it shouldn't happen that often! Still, if I'm rewarded 50% or 20% of the time, instead of 30% or 8% of the time, can I rely on that stratgey as sound? Of course not! But then I know a little about the math and it could be that the fish don't, or don't care so long as they figure it pays to overcall. They still lose, but much slower than expected - while each pot is raked. I, on the other hand, am run over far more often than expected and therefore can't win as much as I should or lose more than I should - while each pot is being raked.
I once thought the bad beat generator was attacking me specifically, or tight aggressive players like me. Why wouldn't they want me to loosen up, feed the rake and let the pots grow so the rake could be maxed out. Then I realized that I too was being rewarded for playing like a fish but that defied every +EV bone in my body. And, sure enough, I would lose a few buy-ins exactly as would be expected, though far more slowly that should have been given the ridiculously frequent suck-outs. That's when it occurred to me that this bad beat generator might be on all the time so as to alter the odds almost all of time, if only slightly, to keep the money in play longer to be rake away.
I explored some other theories I found online but many seemed quite insane indeed, and if you can't articulate atheory well enough to be understood it's either not plausible or you're not credible. However, I did find the notion of a 'doomswitch' intriguing.
The doomswich theroy postulates that there is some condition, or set of conditions, that triggers Pokersites to start robbing you. Maybe it's because you've had a hot streak that needs to be checked, or maybe your tight aggressive stlye stands to bust the fish. Whatever it is, the doomswitch is flipped and you're dead until they turn it off.
I suspect the programming logistics of a 'doomswitch' might make it infeasible and/or too easily detectible. Where would it reside? In the client? Some clever geek would almost certainly find traces of it there. Some suggest the doomswitch itself resides on the server and is triggered by certain configurations of registry keys on your computer. I don't know boo about that stuff, but my friends at Norton and Microsoft tell that's probably not possible, even with the Pokersite client constantly communicating with server. These theories suggest a variety of actions to frustrate, disable, or confuse the doomswitch and many mocked these strategies to hilarity.
I suspect something far simpler, either a 24/7 bad beat generator, altering the odds just enough to keep more money in play to be raked, or a plug-in program that can be plugged in or unplugged at some person's will and be easily removed should Pokersite ever have to give up the servers and programs to authorities. That's what I might do for $100 million more/year if I felt I could get away with it, or if it might still be profitable if I don't.
I'll remind everyone again that career white collar criminals almost never do jail time. The are typically only ever given a fine representing pennies on the dollar and a conviction that does not harm to their lifestyle or ability to start a similar or different scam tomorrow.
If you don't already know who owns Pokersite, do a little research. We now know who owned (and now owns) FT and other sites caught red handed cheating in some form or fashion; and we're shocked to learn of thier pre-existing criminal histories and affilations!? Why do you think the US DoJ charged all sites accomodating US under the RICO (organized crime) Act, among others, and call it a Ponzi scheme?
We now know very well who's running this show and we still give them our financial information and pray we're not being ripped off. We're all fish to them. FT is just the most recent example of how they've already spent our money.
You do realize that Ray Bitar has your credit card or bank information, right? Google him!