Quote:
Originally Posted by truthsbehind
I just want to know how many big blinds you can run under ev line in worst case after 100000 hands.
It depends on your true winrate and your standard deviation. If you have a high winrate and a low standard deviation, you'll rarely be far below EV. If you have a low winrate and a high SD, you could have looooong periods of losing money.
The graphs I posted you showed
exactly how many big blinds you can be under EV over 100,000 hands. In the first graph, each 5bb/100 winning player was expected to win 5000 big blinds (50 buy-ins) in 100,000 hands, but one won 8000bb, so he was 3000bb above EV, and another broke even, so he was 5000bb below EV. By running more simulations with the same numbers you can get even more extreme variance.
If you want to experiment by putting in your own numbers, please do.
If you have HEM, go to Reports>Overall and add the following stats: "EV bb/100" and "Standard Deviation bb/100". The EV bb/100 may be closer to your "true" winrate than your actual profit, since EV winrate is based on you winning a "fair" share of equity in called all in situations.
Put those numbers into the variance simulator where it asks for winrate and SD. Also type in the number of hands you've played.
http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/
Let's say your EV bb/100 is 2bb/100 and your SD is 65bb/100 and you played 50,000 hands.
Here's a graph showing 100 possible runs for you.
Almost everyone with a 2bb/100 winrate and an SD of 65bb/100 would experience a run somewhere between the extremes shown on the chart.
The expected profit is 1000bb (10 buy-ins) in 50k hands. The luckiest player wins almost 6000bb (60 buy-ins) and the unluckiest loses almost 4000bb (40 buyins).
So if you were this 2bb/100 player and managed to break even, you'd be doing a lot better than many of the other players who had worse luck than you.
Unless you tell us your EV bb/100, actual bb/100, standard deviation bb/100 and number of hands, we can't tell you just how unlucky you are. But you can put the numbers into the simulator yourself. If you actually tried to understand what the graphs mean, you might finally realise that however bad your luck has been, it could be much, much worse.