Quote:
Originally Posted by KingOfFelt
I wouldn't feel confident in my ability to decide whether or not it was rigged. However, there are people on these boards who are very good at this (see AP thread). Say you showed a 1,000,000 hands and over those 100,000,000 hands your Aces were cracked 40% of the time. I think this would be somewhere to start. And please don't say that is too many hands for anyone to possibly have because millions of hands have been dealt online since the start of this thread alone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KingOfFelt
Dude, seriously. You don't understand how probability works. You can't just manipulate millions of hands so they stay within proper boundaries, while at the same time "rigging" them to give certain players certain cards.
You aren't making any sense because you don't have the basic knowledge of how one would actually detect a faulty RNG.
Actually YOU CAN! Haven't you seen this Gilbert Arenas comercial? Well, if you haven't, you can watch it here -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_87VZAAgGs
Grab popcorn, folks! This one is going to be long!
One day me and my friend we were playing some SNG's and i say to him: "Man, wouldn't it be great if we would have our own poker site?" He says: "Man, that would be my dream, we would get so rich and wouldn't have to play those damn micro stakes SNG's for pennies, we would strike big in profit.
I have only to agree with him: "Yeah, man, have you seen my stats? I have played already 5K micro stakes SNG's and have made fkn' 1300$ into frofits, isn't that brutal?" And he laughs and trows out: "What it is, like 25 cents in a SNG? Ha-Ha, that's like worse than flipping burgers in McDonald!"
I have to defend myself and say: "Man, you're not doing better you know!" Seems like he's always one step ahead of me: "Atleast i'm not grinding my ars off every night by playing 100 of those, i have given up long ago, i play just for fun couple of them in a day!"
"Ok, ok man enough of this, so about this poker site that we will own one day, do you have any ideas or thought about it?" He just stares at me says: "Hell, no i don't know anything about it, i thought you have something, 'cause you came up with this idea" Well, actually i have!
And i start: "Our online poker room will be similar like all of them - cash games, SNG's, MTT's and all that stuff." "Yeah, yeah i know all that stuff, but how we will get rich?" he's so impatient. I continue "Rake will make us rich!" I see fire in his eyes "Ok, we will gain profit from rake, it's like 25 cents from player, considering we are new poker room and there would mainly play micro stakes players, are you insane? It will take forever to get rich!" Actually, it wouldn't and here i step in with my geniusevilgreedy master plan!
'You know what RNG is?" i ask him. "Wat?" he shrugs his sholders. Seems like this day will be long and i continue: "Well, you see every poker room has this RNG (random number generator) which gives cards to players and generates boards 'n' stuff" "What this RNG thing has to do with our profits?" "Much more than you think, my friend!"
"Everytime new player registers to our room data (IP adress, his credit card number (if he deposits) etc. data is tracked and stored and when game starts data is sent to little programm which is related to RNG, let's call it RNG's Guide." He's in perplexity "But why, what RNG has to do with data about this player, isn't it ment to be for card dealing?" "It's more complex than you think!" i proceed "See, everytime there's new player to our room we have to keep him there as long as possible, right? And how can be manage to do that if he's possibly complete begginer and doesn't know anything about poker?" He thinks for a minute and throws out: "Maybe we could give him some kind of lucky card streak to make him excited by winning and stay in our room for long time! Nah, that's just stupid, how could we do that, it's impossible..." [You know this evil smile?] Well i make one of those and say "Actually, that's what we are gonna do and it's more than possible"
"I will make example for you my friend!" "Let's say it's 45 men SNG, registration is complete and it's one minute to start, RNG's Guide which is related to this games RNG processed all information about and will give impulses to RNG" "Sounds complex? Actually, it isn't that complex - in every SNG there are those key moments where players are all in and in these situations RNG's Guide will decide who is gonna win, it will send information to RNG and it will throw board in favore of someone which RNG's Guide have chosen" My friend is stunned "Have you watched those sci-fi movies alot lately, are you insane? Let's say I'm all in with AA and villain is all with 72 and RNG's Guide will decide that i'm going to lose, wouldn't it be too obv that there's something shady going on?"
I proceed "Not at all! These situation's when AA gets cracked would't be that much. There would be "surviving levels" in every SNG when "setup hands" will occure. For example - first surviving level will occure when blinds are 50/100, player stacks will be around 10-15BB's (some will have less than 10BB's obv and some more based on their action in first stages) and in this period RNG will throw around setup hands. Mostly two player will be involved in these situation and hands will be pair agains bigger pair, pair agains two overcards, overcards again overcards with better kicker etc. There will be situation where 3 or 4 players will be involved with playable hands, but those situation will occure rearly, these situations is needed to not get very suspicios about those action hands if two players would be involved all the time. Who's gonna win race will decide RNG's Guide which is gonna send impulse to RNG to generate board like it's decided based on information about players involved into hand."
My friend thinks for a moment and asks "But what if first player to act who has one of setup hands just raises and second player doesn't shove, but just calls? It would make situation which is not in "scenario", if i could say so" "That wouldn't matter. Let's say first player who acts has AQ, he raises to 300, second player involved in setup has AK and he just calls. RNG's Guide sends impulse to RNG before dealing flop and says that player two will win. Flop comes AT8, money goes in no matter what. If somehow player one escapes from loosing his stack, he's left with pennies and will blind out to death or will shove some marginal hand and lose" My friend starts to get little into it, but still has plenty of questions "How exactly RNG's Guide will decide winner and what if someone else comes into action who wasn't into "setup", let's say someone who has marginal hand like JT, but is desperate to shove 'cause he has small stack?"
"RNG's Guide will decide winner based on all information about players. Let's examine previous example, AQ and AK goes all in, JT too comes into - before board gets dealt RNG's Guide based on information that player with AQ is registered before two months, has played xxx SNG's, have won xxx money, player with AK registered today, this is his first SNG, player with JT bla bla bla, decided that AK is gonna win. It doesn't matter how many player come into action, board will come just like RNG's Guide is decided, easy as that!"
My friend is stunned and throws out "Man, you're a genius! First - everytime when new players will deposite money they will be guaranteed to win money in their first tourneys, those players will be excited and will stay to play in our room! Second - everyone's winning will be regulated. RNG's Guide would track all info about all players and it would be configured way to max limit players winning and by regulating everyone's winning sharks will not eat fish. Imagine some skilled players terrorize our fish tank and clears it up? That would mean no more rake, right? Third - money flows around longer and that means more rake again!" "That's right, i see you are digging into this stuff!"
"Ummm" he say "What about after this first survival level, that's it? Game goes later randomly?" "Nope, it's just beggining. Next survival levels will occure when blinds are 100/200, 150/300 etc. Again setup hands all over the place, mostly two players involved. Ofcourse if there would be only setup hands people will start to notice it, that's why there would be these "one playable hand situations" where only one of players would have strong holding and would play his hand. RNG would be creating natural environment, but actually it would be one big setup! It's possible someone with marginal hand and small stack will come into action and then again RNG's Guide will step in action."
"But after some time people will notice it's always two good hands clashing or three hands, how we will avoid this?" "You dummy, there would be "0 playable hand situations" too, when noone has good holding, but if somehow two or more players are all in with medium hands, RNG's Guide is just waiting here to decide winner!"
"But what about bubble and final table?" "Same old story, mostly two hands clashes, RNG's Guide decides who's gonna win bla, bla, bla..." "But wouldn't it bring some rediculous bad beats all over the place? Let's say someone who's registered just today wins all all-in situations, no matter he's favorite and dog, has huge stack and starts to shove every hand at final table, 'cause he thinks his invincible?" I smile and say "Have you heard phrase "that's poker, everything can happen"?" My friend itches his head "Ummm, i guess so, but wouldn't it be to obv?" "Well, RNG's Guide wouldn't allow this player to win every hand. Let's say he shoves every hand and now when he has 27 gets called by KK, he will lose, but it will not matter 'cause at the end he will win this tourney"
My friend rubs his hands "I taste money here! But you know what, when you get lot of money, you get this feeling that you need more, you know what i'm talking about? Is it possible that we get more money than we actually could get?" [Evil smile on my face once again] "YES WE CAN!" My friend "Man, you know answers to all of questions, please tell me!" And I begin...
"See, to get more money we have to make money to flow faster around site. Games finishes faster, new games starts, more rake goes into our pockets. How could we fasten up games you're asking? Easilly, our RNG (which actually isn't random at all, HA-HA!) will generate "action flops" as i call them - let's say there are two players before flop with playable hands, one has AK, second has 99. First raises, seconds calls, but there are two donkeys who come into action with marginal hands like KJ and JT and flop comes QJ9. See, everyone's connected and someone's gonna lose money, someones gonna win. By creating this environments money will go faster around, players will faster bust out of tourney and register to another, brilliant right?"
"Cool, can you tell me little more about RNG?" I ask "What exactly you want to know?" "Well, if it actually isn't random as all player will think it is, how we will hide it?" "Easilly, we will state that our RNG is bit different than live shuffle" My friend is confused "LOL?" "Yeah, LOL, dude, who cares anyway?" "We will state that it doesn't bury hands like in live games dealers does, it will shuffle deck before hole cards are dealt and will shuffle again before flop is dealt. By that we could state that it's bit different (unpredictable?) and actions flop can happen more often in online poker. Plus players want to see more action, right? Live poker is so boring, you sit there five hours without hand..." "That sounds great, but what if someone is suspicion when he gets aces five times in one SNG?" "Man, are you dumb? This is so simple - in online poker you get dealt more hand 'cause games go with faster pace, see?" "Yeah, but what if someone plays 50 hands in live poker SNG and then 50 hands in online poker SNG states that it's clearly more action going on in online poker? He thinks that is proportionally more action in online poker that in live?" "LOL, man, who cares? And what is 50 hand sample anywayz, play 10000000 live and online poker hands and then you can come up with some evidence!"
"Oh, more about this RNG thing, what if someone collect big quantum of hands into his poker tracker and sees that his aces wins only 50% of the time?" "Dude, you think i'm stupid? There wouldn't be any anomalies like that, aces would win as they should, same for other hands. You could play 100000000x1000000000 hands and extract them into PT and you wouldn't notice anything strage" "Yeah, but what if someone in first 50 SNG's would get dealt aces 100 times and all other pocket pairs only 25 times?" "Again, sample size, too small sample size means nothing!" "You could get dealt aces every second hand in your first SNG, so what? In long run all pocket pairs would be dealt aprox same amount." "Cool, but how this RNG who actually isn't random will know how much pocket aces and pocket duced player has? Maybe something goes wrong and player gets dealt pocket duced 500 times and aces only once?" "This is were algorithm kicks in!" "Algor... WTF?" "Yeah, that's bit complex - algorithm will deal "playable hands" for every player few times in blind levels. Let's say player gets pocket duces when blind are 10/20, he gets AQ when blinds are 25/50 etc. Between playable hands there would be junk hands, marginal hands etc." "Ok, but what if someone starts to notice this pattern?" "Noone will, algorithm can choose to deal to someone in one blind level more than one "playable hand", besides there are turbo and regular SNG's, in regular SNG's you'll get more playable hands 'cause they're longer." "So basically this algorithm chooses hands for players based on RNG's Guide info which stores information about each player and in long run there wouldn't be such anomalies as pocket aces get dealt twice less than pocket duced, right?" "That's right!" "Let's say you play five SNG's at once and in all SNG's it's first blind level, you get delt AQ/22/AK/88/99 one playabke hand on each table, but RNG's Guide says to RNG to deal one more "playable hand" on table nr.3 ., it does. Next blind level 15/30, you get only 4 playable hands, but in this time next orbit you get dealt one more playable hand on table nr.2. Anywayz, that's just a theatre, you could fold all those hand even pocket aces and kings, all what matters is what RNG's Guide will choose when you'll be in those "survival levels."
"I was thinking, let's say our room gets popular and there comes some skilled players to play and they start to eat our fish, they start to win big and fish are afraid to play and goes away, our business is gone..." "Well, that's impossible 'cause we regulate everyone's winning, remember? By regulating winning i mean giving bad streaks for players, mostly break even streaks, sometimes "heaters" and that is possible to do by configurating RNG's Guide. Yes, there would be winning players 'cause there can't be only loosers, right? But, even those players wouldn't win as much as they should no matter how skilled they would be! Environment we want to create is many fish who stays long enought around generating rake, middle class - little winners and couple big winners as they call themselves, they would be impressed how much more they would win if we would run fair game, but it's business, right? HA-HA!"
"Umm, that's about RNG for SNG's, what about MTT's and Cash games?" "RNG is the same, structures are different, but mostly it would be - action, action, action! Big MTT's with huge fields wouldn't last for days, they would be completed in few hours. Faster MTT's ends, faster we could start new ones, more rake we would gain!"
"What about taxes, if we run business we have to pay taxes, right?" "LOL? Taxes? What are you talking about, taxes would cut from our income. We will locate our servers in ofshore countries where you don't have to pay taxes!" My friend is so excited, but...
"What if actually players start to not believe that we run fair games?" I calm him down "It's impossible 'cause you always can say there are ups and downs in poker "variance" and our RNG would be tested by some THIRD companies, anywayz what those fools would find out? Nothing! Hand are deals corectly, boards comes a bit too spicey and bad beats happen a LITTLE more offten, but that's poker!"
"Sounds greate, when we shall start our room?" "WAT? I was just dreaming about it! Anywayz back to work grinding micro stakes SNG's. I hope today i will make more than 20$ in 100 SNG's..." My friend before leaving "GL, dude, i have to go home and maybe someday we will run that poker room!" Me "YEAH RIGHT!"
Anywayz, this dialogue between me and my friend never happened and all in this story is fictitious, but if someone reads this story and thinks that this could be way how online poker rooms run their games all i can say to those folks are: "ARE YOU RIGTARD?"
It just a model how i would create my poker room. Yes, i'm a greedy bastard, i would rob you all poker player who love this game so much, but you know what? I would sleep pretty good damn well at nights, knowing that it's impossible to prove that my poker room is "rigged". So you're decent player and had 100 buy-in downswing while playing micro stakes SNG's? So what, it's poker buddy! VARIANCE can hit your aars!
Anywayz, truth sometimes is stranger than fiction, right?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GRQhuj7g7Y
CHEERS!
Last edited by lenasrokas; 04-07-2009 at 11:44 AM.