Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoMoos
I don't want to argue, I want to bet on something. I'll lay 2-1 that my cards don't breakeven over the next 2000 hands. I mean the dealer will give me more small cards than big cards. Over the last 2400+ hands, the cards are running about 3% below breakeven.
I'll bet the next 2000+ hands are not much different. Just a small bet, maybe $100-$50. The dealer ain't square.
Let's say "small" is 2-7, and "big" is 9-A. 24 cards each, and 8s don't count.
So both sets have 24/52 or 46% chance to be dealt. In 2000 hands or 4000 dealt cards, you should receive 1846 cards in each group (disregarding 8s, the median card). For a 99.99% confidence level we use 4 standard deviations, which in this case is +/- 126.
So I'll take your bet, that your next 2000 hands result in you receiving between 1720 and 1972 of each group, small cards and big cards. Or in your terms, that you recieve at least 1720 big cards 9+, in the next 2000 hands.
Choose a mod for escrow, you put in $100 and I put in $50. Then you zip up the 2000 hand histories with consecutive times, starting tomorrow, and post the link to them. The hand history files need the original file timestamp on them to show they are not edited.
If I've made a math error we'll agree on the correction.
Last edited by spadebidder; 01-15-2010 at 12:24 AM.
Reason: correction