I have a theory on AP's BadBeat Jackpots. Notice the last 2 are really high. The Jackpot running currently is already at $500k (winner gets 165k, so far). So the last 3 Jackpots are huge. Anomoly huge. Very unlikely huge. Granted that there is a portion of a won Jackpot that carries over into the next Jackpot, but still. Review the #s below and you can see the inordinately high recent Jackpots.

2008-06-22 RIVERMAN1969 $325,212.40 Four of a kind, tens
2008-06-05 BUDYLOVE $246,362.82 Four of a kind, nines
2008-05-20 TEDDYHOLD111 $89,888.53 Four of a kind, aces
2008-05-13 DENDAKOTA $46,908.01 Four of a kind, eights
2008-05-08 MAN_N_BLACK $21,010.18 Four of a kind, nines
2008-05-08 OBBYBA $68,446.13 Four of a kind, eights
2008-05-02 RITZRAZZ $40,222.88 Straight flush, jack
2008-04-28 POKERLEADER $28,438.45 Four of a kind, tens
2008-04-26 SHORTSTAK11 $16,232.06 Four of a kind, nines
2008-04-25 DODGEFREAK05 $42,542.01 Four of a kind, eights
2008-04-25 OBROTHER $157,380.85 Four of a kind, queens
2008-04-13 SCOTTYVU $86,773.84 Four of a kind, tens
2008-04-05 KIDA1982 $51,903.97 Four of a kind, nines



Ok, so now the conspiracies I am making up are based on these Jackpots.

Conspiracy #1 - Scott Tom (former owner, still board member of AP), has puppet users accounts that he wins the larger jackpots with. I call it superduperuser cheat.

Conspiracy #2 - AP has manipulated their software's variance to make Jackpots less likely than they mathematically should occur at. This is done to attract massive amounts of new players, who love the idea of AP having the biggest Jackpots online

Conspiracy #3 - AP is skimming off of the Jackpot rakes. Meaning, that for every raked pot where the special $.50 Jackpot rake is taken, they only put $.40 of it into the actual Jackpot and $.10 goes into Scott Tom's Cayman Island bank account(s).

Conspiracy #4 - AP is using the massive Jackpots to suck in tons of players before the new gaming law in the US passes the senate in 2 months. The Bill will be called the 'Free Healthcare for all' bill, and there will be a provision tacked on 1 day before its brought to the senate. This provision will freeze all US citizen's gaming accounts at AP and all player assets will be deemed 'illegal funds obtained by criminal activities'. The joke will be on all of us as Scott Tom Bad Beats us all!


What is #5?

I know the last jackpot winner. So does that flush your conspiracy's down the toilet?

why would an online poker site who already makes so much money risk it by cheating or rigging the games.

"What is #5?"

Black tar heroin?

Exactly.

Nice level - I assume

What's up with the ALL CAPS, LMAOWTF (and all his jackpot winning friends)?

Money, money, money, money...

I think it's really funny that people think these big poker sites wouldn't want to cheat us because they are already making so much money. Really big companies cheat us all the time. Large airlines work together to raise their ticket prices and cargo rates, ENRON (nuff said), telephone companies charging too much on purpose and only refunding money when they got caught, insurance companies (nuff said), and I'm sure we could all think of several scams they've seen large very profitable companies do stupid things like steal from their customers. Oh only one of the companies that I listed are out of business. The rest are still going strong.

AP is still going strong because there are many people out there posting making fun of people for thinking cheating takes place. Of course cheating takes place on several levels. Players cheating by several ways, companies cheating us with software tools, third party processors straight out stealing money from customers, and then those dam short stacks that get their money in bad and suck out (ok the last one really isn't cheating).

The only reason the AP scam was uncovered was because people just didn't blindly trust these companies and I for one thank those that uncovered the scandal. Keep up the good work.

My theory is that once the jackpots got up to a few hundred thousand or so, AP was hitting the jackpots themselves and taking the lion's share of the profits (see the guy who won twice) . I think now AP has stopped rigging the jackpot winners and we will see the average jackpot be much higher before it is hit.

I love Superuser's comments :-)

Oh, hi there Scott, I didn't know you troll 2+2

Are you serious, how old are you? Why do marks always side with this flawed logic. Listen. These online sites are criminal enterprises motivated by making money. And if they get caught fixing games and cheating, there is little oversight to prosecute them. Most sites are based in Costa Rica, Bahamas, Gibraltor, and other countries with poor international law treaties. The biggest online gaming commission that 'supposedly' regulates these poker sites is the Kahnawahke Gaming commission (part of Mohawk nation), based in Montreal, Canada. Technically, federal law in Canada says what the Kanahwahke are doing is illegal, but the RCMP and local police do not bother them.

So you can see that the online poker sites are built on air. Its no suprise that some poker sites cheat their players in some or many ways.

Plus there are always players that cheat AT ALL LEVELS OF PLAY. Even penny games I have caught people colluding. And at bigger stakes it happens even more. Its just simple risk/reward. No one suspects its worth cheating at low stakes, so that makes it less risky to do, but of course the rewards are low. At higher stakes its more risky to cheat since the player are sharper and more apt to find you out, but the reward is high. Cheating occurs at all levels. The 'Its not worth it for people to cheat at such small stakes.' logic is short sighted and untrue.

I'm not worried though, if you play good poker you will make money and have fun doing it.

"These online sites are criminal enterprises"

Huh?????? Ok Mr.Frist.

greenpoker - Please check your sarcasm meter. You are way overreacting to a post that you badly misinterpreted.

with AP/UB's history, we have to assume that they are rigging the bad beat jackpots imo.

ditto I believe they are cheating either by skimming something off the top which no once can track, so I think that is almost 100% for sure. But really these people sold popcorn at a past WSOP in the name of charity and kept the money themselves. Even they scam people in the guise of charity for 10k I can safely assume they'd scam people for hundred of thousands.

Interesting information.

Can you elaborate on the popcorn charity and 10k they scammed? I'm curious about this, any links or proof?

You are right, they are criminals.

why would an online poker site who already makes so much money risk it by cheating or rigging the games.********* for the same reasons that a jockey who is already a millionare fixes horse races

i think the popcorn charity scam was debunked by AP. if i remember correctly they had the guy who was the head of the charity vouch for them that a check was cut. but it seemed fishy, i cant remember if they provided much proof. either way this company is very very shady. anyone who believes they are on the up and up now is a sucker, imo.

My recollection is that it they didn't steal the charity money, or at least there was insufficient evidence that they stole the charity money, or at least that particular charity money. So, they only had higher ups using superuser accounts at the one site they own and a superuser of undisclosed affiliation at the other site they own. And in each instance, after they got caught, after deliberately misleading press releases and stonewalling didn't work, they refunded some if not all the stolen money.

Please, give credit where credit is due.

wat

What a childish abstract. Completely wrong of course. Want evidence, ok here is evidence that UB (owned by same company as AP) is criminal.

http://absoluteincentives.com/news-f...t_from=&ucat=&