Hello all,
I read the last two pages of the thread (maybe more, because I'm taking a couple of days to write this...), because trying to read more than 100 pages and trying to catch what you are discussing in 100% of things it would be a little bit insane for me.
I'm not a so regular nowadays and consider myself just a mediocre player trying to get better (and probably I'll post a PG&C next month), not just for playing, but reading a lot here. I was a student of Math and Statistics in 2005-2010 but I didn't concluded my studies due to my marketing online career (working on, oh what a coincidence, user behaviour and BI with web analytics). I started playing poker at 2010 with SnG's, after that I started to play cash games. 2013 I was a reg at NL50, NL100 and NL200. By Oct 2014, I played off the BRM and moving up from NL25 to NL1000, turning $200 into almost $8000 in five days and playing only with the mobile app at PS Zoom tables.
So, I'll give my opinion based on what I have learned since 2005 until now, based on to turn the game fair to
all users and have a great game to play, no matter how good or bad we are. (sorry for the long post in advance :/ )
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Info is gold. So, if get this resource and do nothing, it's only gold. In Sauron's hands, it can be turned into a ring "that can rule them all" and in the
hobbitses' hands, they'll use to play "hide and seek".
Historically, every poker room/software provided hand history with a default text. So, everyone have potentially the power "to rule them all". But, is everyone benefiting from that?
I could answer:
1) yes, because we have software that everyone can buy.
2) no, because not everyone is looking for that edge.
And for the number 1, I think we have two categories:
1) users that can understand statistics and apply for the play
2) users that cannot.
For the users in number 1), great! Congratulations!
For the users in number 2): hey, just use Google and you will find tons of info on how to use it!
Maybe for the number 2) group, some of them succeed, some not. And for those who not succeed, they eventually stops playing because "PS is rigged" (meaning "hey, I don't know how to deal with these statistics").
So, probably we could have a little % of users that can actually use 3rd Party Software and a great % of users that cannot.
At total, in the present moment I'm writing this, Twoplustwo have 424k users and 2.8k active users (record peak was 30k). But as I drill down the numbers for just poker related forums, I roughly sum 200 active users. This is like 1% of PS traffic and 10% of 888poker (using numbers of PokerScout).
So, if I consider 100% of TwoPlusTwo players, that knows some programming logic, mass tablers with only 10 active tables,
it would be like 10% of PS traffic. I'm doing this calc because we can do 10 active reg tables easily (I don't think that we can mass table at 888 poker, but it's not the point here...).
If we consider that everyone is playing FR, it's like 1 player playing 80 other players (if they are not mass tabling too!). A quick calc: 200 x 80 = 16.000 "TwoPlusTwo opponents". So, it would be like other 80% of the traffic of PS (considering my previous calc).
So, the strong winning reg that can use a HUD and mass table have a enormous edge counting hands/hour. The strong reg can lose Aces or Kings all day. Because he knows that ultimately he will be dealt with those monster hands and he'll recover what he's lost. Better yet with any other hand that turns into a monster with the flop.
But you can say that "the sample is too small" (no matter if you play against too many players in Zoom and have a small sample of hands, or a small number of players in reg tables with a low number of orbits) ... Gosh... always is. Deal it with. I clearly see that every losing play is "because of small sample" not because of "bad read" or "opponent just got lucky this time". Whatever...
What I'm trying to say here it that datamining and HUD usage affects 10% of the players that have enourmous impact in 80% of the players. Almost a Pareto Principle.
... so that being said ...
I think that the study of the opponents offline is THE edge. And if I mimic the offline play, I don't have a "Google Glass" that tells me that "this opponent is TAG/LAG". I have a little notebook that I can make some notes (liar! I only take mental notes). But in my mind I can "tag" my opponents. The software does that, you can colour your opponents and take notes. Thinking this way, a HUD with only the history of the player could be reasonable (it's the same). But any other way that a software have already an intelligence to automatic tag users, it's something like "to use steroids". You have to have the knowledge to do that, not the software.
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some more opinion...
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So, it leaves to only statistical tools to search that could spot potential bots and cheaters. I really think that some users from this forum deserves some giveaways from PS, if not, a cash payment, like some great IT companies do when you spot a bug in their system.
The fun of the game (and for the rec players) isn't the HUD, HH, etc. It's for the table selection, it's the Aces losing vs any-two, etc.. The real deal is that we have a lot of dreamers-haters than "reality-ers"-thinkers in our game. They just think in the present moment, not in the long run. They don't even know what is bankroll management or how to properly do it.
And for that my friends, we see that our sites have now cassino and sports betting (for some regions, of course)! Because "poker is a skill game" and cassino it's just luck. "And if I don't have skill to beat the game, maybe I have some luck", if not, I'll go back play checkers. And if we go back IRL, Las Vegas profits more with cassino games than poker. And more with entertainment than gambling in general. I think you all know that.
I only want to play a great game and have a good time. I'm looking forward to spread the word writing (my future post at PG&C) and making some videos for Youtube.