If I had AA or KK on that board the way most players would play it is, call ivey's raise, and ship my 100k on any turn card and hope TT-QQ call; give ivey 3:1 odds on the turn is the more standard logical play

Shoving on a super dry flop screams "I have AA/KK" but if I had AA/KK I wouldn't want to completely scare away an under pair; which is why this bluff didn't make sense to Ivey and why he called

This thread sucks. Everyone is acting as if we got to see every hand played, and have a feel for what the gameflow was. We don't, Ivey did.

/thread

Ivey pwned FPS Mercier. Get over it.

in the long run ivey is drawing to 2 outs here

That would be the most idiotic thing said on Youtube, let alone on 2+2.

i get it everyone loves ivey but if mercier had AA then what would people say? Jason was so tight and solid whole time, raises oop then fires out, gets raised, and still shoves... hes repping a big hand, ivey made a crying call and was right this time luckily, bottom line

a.) he didn't have AA he had ace high, just as Ivey suspected

b.) Are you saying he can't have AK, AQ, etc. here? He plays those hands exactly the same...

This thread is crazy - much fail. The point for Ivey is he's not putting any player on a particular hand, he's putting them on a range. Mercier's range here had some hands that crushed Ivey but more that were crushed by Ivey's pair. The call might have been a little thin, but it was 100% correct every time. It probably wasn't even that thin, because Mercier's squeeze widened his range quite a bit.

Don't you guys get it? Phil Ivey doesn't put people on ranges and work out EV, he doesn't need to because he's PHIL IVEY. I can't see how he possibly called that, and I would consider it a bad call overall, but there is an exception when the call is made by PHIL IVEY. He just knows.

Mercier does not want to give Ivey credit for owning him which is not surprising given that he's still a kid. He doesn't even know that he was owned.

I am not going to pretend to have a grasp on Ivey's thought process. If I did I would probably be playing high stakes. What I have seen is that Ivey plays well vs. nits. He's not going to allow someone to "use their tight image". I don't know how Ivey does this but he does. Mercier had been playing snug and when he stepped out of line Ivey snapped his juvenile ass right off.

so Jason expected him to raise/fold 99 and he doesn't raise/fold 99

who played the hand bad then

it's so easy for Jason to results orientatedly state 'playing 99 this way vs my range here is terrible' but what if Phil had 77. what if Phil had KK.

the fact that Ivey ACTUALLY had 99 is allowed to be factored into an analysis from his side, but the fact that he ACTUALLY had A4hh isn't allowed to be factored in the other way? if he wants to make out his range for 3betting and betting that flop is JJ+ he's clearly wrong, if he wants to make out his range for 3betting and bet/3betting that flop is the same he's clearly wrong

These preflop obvious squeeze spots when a loose player opens (gus) and 2 callers then the a 3bet oop. Its a bluff so often really I never believe it either haha

Jason plays great and all so don't get me wrong, but he sure does like to pretend to have QQ-AA and he's one of the most active 3bettors.

Crushed Mercier is asking - "Can I keep the fives?" as he moves his chips over to Ivey. Someone prompty answers - "yes Jason keep the fives." It is hillarious. Check it toward the very end of the video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNso4a7N7mQ

merciers hanging out with allen bari too much obv

If Mercier wanted to bluff in this spot, the stacks would have to be about 50-100k deeper, and he should bet/call because that line reps QQ+ more credibly?

Agree with this. Don't know how, he just does.

The thing about Phil Ivey and other old-school pros that are still doing well today (John Juanda, Erik Seidel, etc.) are that while they've adjusted very well to the new level of skill that online introduced, for them stuff like range and EV calculations kind of go out the window in tough spots and they default to basically reading their opponent's soul, for lack of a better way to phrase it. I know it sounds kind of ridiculous but I remember Timex mentioned in his blog with 100% seriousness that Erik Seidel is the type of player who'll 4bet with AQ and call a 5bet jam if he [Timex] has A8s and fold to a 5bet jam if he has KK.

So with that in mind I presume that Ivey's shock when Mercier shoves isn't because he didn't have a plan for the hand, but because his plan pretty much ended with Mercier folding since he was confident on the flop that Mercier had air. For Mercier to shove entailed that either his read was completely off, or Mercier was attempting some psycho bluff-shove, neither of which he thought were all that likely.

Ivey floats with air A LOT.

My interpretation of the hand: Ivey expects JM to shove close to 100% of his 3bet preflop range which includes AK, occasionally AQ, random AXs, occasionally low-mid pairs, QQ+. Ivey is intentionally playing exploitably due to the vacuum nature and game-flow reads.

Ivey is raising for pure value. The shrug/etc is just to protect image if JM shows up with JJ+.

There is one other possibility: Ivey didn't realise JM's stack size relative to the pot. How likely do you think it is that Ivey made this mistake?



On JM's shove: For reasoning above I don't think Ivey raises flop with air enough.

never question Ivey

ivey is a sicko but you gotta give mercier credit - the guy is a great player and was unlucky not to get away with the mega-bluff

Exactly.Ivey only calls because he is sure that most of the time he has ak aq whatever.

If mercier does have the aakk set whatever then its different but he didnt. Thing is that if he did have those who knows ivey probs still finds the right play..


Strong bluff. Great call... Jason should be picking better spots than this. try get lucky against the best player and outplay the weaker especially when the best is Ivey..

But ballsy from Mercier so you gota give him that

The guy is a great TOURNAMENT player. That doesn't mean that much in a cash game. (See Phil Hellmuth). Especially against the best

I didn't like Mercier at first cuz he just seemed like a super cocky kid that was on a tournament heater. But I think he showed that he's pretty damn good at cash, based on his appearances on The Big Game. On that show vs. DN, Laak, etc. then yes he does have an advantage. But for him to think he's not a dog vs. Dwan, Ivey, PA, etc. is laughable.

Well, who does not have an advantage in a cash game against Laak and Negreanu?