So here's a graph of my last 30K hands or so at the Commerce 3/5 NL. As you can see I'm well on my way to 10K hands of suck. Other people who frequent this game: is this just me sucking or has the game changed in some fundamental way? I'll post some of my observations later, but I'd like to hear what others have to say first.


Edit: sorry if this violates the no beats/brags rules. Would it be better to post this in Full Ring?

No, I think it's appropriate here. Do they care if the Commerce 3-5 is a good game in FR?

I have no way to answer except to say that 30k isn't that much, ESPECIALLY in a short-stacked game. Do you not notice opponents making the same mistakes they made six months ago?

i heard a rumor that the management at Commerce recently added an element of randomness to some of their games, it is possible that the 3/5 NL may have been affected by this change

Also, just out of curiosity, who the hell talks about "Poker Tracker big bets" in a live game? Do you make a turn bet of $10 into a $300 pot in this game and act like you've made a reeeeeeeeeeally BIG bet?

$ vs hours graph would be so much better

So, you've won for 12 months straight...you are now breaking even (over 4 months) and you think the world is about to end. Suuuuuuure.

You're winning at 7 ptBB/100 over 30k hands and you think the games are drying up?

Its much more likely your going on subtle tilt after a couple break even months than it is that LA has run out of fish.

If you beat a live game for 7ptBB/100 then you're on the right path (even more if you consider LA games are shortstacked)

I don't see an option in PokerTracker to import Commerce hand histories. Is this in the new beta?

Okay, I'll bite. How?

looooooool

Very impressive work by Pat. However, I'm having trouble getting PAHUD to show up on some of the Tunica tables without flickering.

I guess you'll just have to print out their stats onto Post-It notes, and stick them to your opponents foreheads, until Josh can get this worked out.

He'd better. I'm so tired of having to treat everyone as "typical opponent" because I can't see their stats.

Yes I am a bit proud of the winrate. I think I've been beating the game about as thoroughly as it's possible to beat, but as AKQJ10 pointed out, it is a shortstack game. It also has an obnoxious rake ($6 for every hand that gets to the turn, regardless of potsize - so if it's folded to the small blind, who completes and then both players check it down, the rake is 60% - obviously the blinds almost always chop but it's still an obnoxiously high rake). Basically the profitability of the game is dependent on having multiple complete donators per table. No regular Commerce 3/5 players feel like posting? I thought there were several on 2p2.


The first graph assumed 35 hands per hour so here is that translated into hours.

The Day the FISH dry up at the Commerce is the day Poker Ends FOREVER as a means to make money....

If you go there and chips arent making bruises on your body from the wild betting and calling....you are prolly not at the Commerce

Syberduh, what are your thoughts on the game drying up? Why do you think that? I am not a regular on this site and I thought your question was interesting. Ive played at Commerce the past few years...and like you, I never really lost at the 3/5 game really. The game was so easy that I pretty much went whenever I felt like buying something. Then over a year ago, I was laid off but have been able to support myself just playing once a week and sometimes even once every two weeks. I built up over 10K pretty easily. I played less and less until I just didn't play for several months and just lived off my savings. So feeling the need to get back in the game... I went back and lost 5 straight sessions (never lost more than 2 sessions back to back).

I know I felt a little rusty...but I also wondered if the games had gotten tougher. I hope others that play at the 3/5 game reply as well cuz I don't think it's tougher just cuz I've been losing. (cuz obviously as ppl pointed out, were still dealing with a very small sample size here.) The game ACTUALLY seems tougher. I just went to Vegas and won easily and I just kept thinking the whole trip how much tougher the games were in LA vs. Vegas.

If Commerce mid-limit NL players are getting tougher, poker as we know it is dead.

i don't get it... why don't you just play the 5-5 500max game at the bike. your winrate will be higher.

OP,

Breaking even for 300 hours in live poker can be attributed to variance.

I am curious to hear about peoples' win rates in the capped no-limit games. I play mostly 40-80 limit, but I play in a small stakes home game filled with guys who love the $100 and $200 buy-in games. They talk about how great the games are, although much of the conversation is stuff like, "Friday night I played $100 for 6 hours and left with $700! That means I'm making $100 an hour ZOMG!" For those of you who have played more than 6 hours, what sort of results have you seen?

SR,
I didn't know there was a 5-5 game at the Bike. Does mostly everyone buy in $500? I think I will try that game as the Commerce games definitely play somewhat "shortstacked". I know the Bike games play better tho, as I was going to start playing in the 5-10 game. However, I just hate the Bike. I'm not a superstitious guy...but i've taken my sickest beats at the Bike. I lost close to 5k in one weekend playing the $200 NL game! Lost over 2300 in back to back sessions to 2 different guys that were crazy drunk. (One guy had over 4K stack in front of him...the biggest I've seen in that game cuz he was crazy lucky...then literally lost 4k in 9 mins.) The 3rd day I was running good and had over 2k in front of me and lost it all on an all-in after i had flopped a boat...the guy got a bigger boat on runner runner Ks. So......I hate the Bike. But yeah, I should get over it and I'll check out the 5-5 game.

Shawn,
I want to take my poker game more seriously so that I can eventually play in that 40-80 limit game. I should have moved up to a bigger limit game...but with my roll now, I am basically restarting poker and sticking to the smaller NL games. The $200 games at Commerce are (or at least were) pretty good. Thats where I've made all of my money in poker really. I do NOT like the $100 game at all. The game is too "shortstacked" considering the blinds and average raises. And then theres the $400 which is a HIGH action game. I think if anyone is good enough, you can make a lot of money playing the $400 game....especially if you're running good. If you are gettin cold cards though...its a tough game...there's so much action and ppl always being aggressive and putting pressure on you...you have to be on with your reads and make some tough decisions. Looking back I should have played the $400 game last year when I was playing really well....but again, the $200 game was so "easy" and comfortable, so I never moved up.
Anyways, not sure what my "win rate" is or how ppl here define or calculate it. (is it just $ per hour? BB per hour? or some weird win % formula?). So I am curious also to hear from other Commerce players as well. All I know is I thought the game was crazy easy before and that I almost never lost for a over a year. But the last 5 sessions I've played...well those 5 games for sure were tougher than normal.

For B&M it's dollars per hour. I live in LA and the NL games are sick easy at small steaks and mid steaks(haven't played hi). Srsly, either weather some variance or get better at poker. It's very likely you could be one of those fish and not know it.

ThaHero, I'm sure the games are still ridiculously easy for some. I know 2 guys that play for a living and I'm sure they think its easy too. So obviously one factor is that I'm not on that level (but how many actually are?). The fact that the games are still easy for some, doesn't mean the games haven't gotten tougher overall. So thats kinda the point of the original question. Not if the games are easy to some...but if they've gotten any tougher overall. Like you said, I'm not sure if I'm just running bad or I'm one of those fish. I just know I almost always won before and am losing now. So thats why I wanna hear other people's opinions. So you think the games are easy....but are they JUST as easy as a couple years ago?

Playing 35 hph indicates that there aren't enough drama queens at the table slowing things down. Consider practicing better game selection.

Compared to 2-3 years ago the small stakes games at the LA casinos are pretty much identical. I don't see any change in toughness. I didn't play mid stakes until last year but I would imagine it wasn't much different a couple years ago. If the players were much worse then I'm sad cuz I missed out on millions.