Good points.

Should have at least done a play action then.

Reminds me of the joke I repeatedly tell my blonde daughter, who when hearing that the majority of accidents happen within a mile of their house. . . . . . moved!

I felt like if they had hurried up a bit more after the 1st down run, they could have had enough time for four runs. Assuming you have to throw once, I still hate that playcall. Wilson was set to throw the ball to that point before even snapping it. Bleh

The time was only a problem because they took so long to run the play, and a pass into the middle is insane. If they need to pass, they should have ran a play that looked more like the baldwin TD. Play action and/or throw it away from where all the bad guys are. either way, I'm glad you lost your money.

I usually LOVE play-action inside the five yard line...but inside the POINT-five yard line? Not the time to run a slow-developing play. If you're on the five and you lose two yards, big deal; but when you're well inside the ONE and you lose two yards, that's crushing.

This whole discussion tilts me so bad...for example, I've never heard a positive thing about the dreaded "fade" route, until this play sent all the MMQBs into a tizzy.

Everyone I've tried to discuss this with--every single soul--is convinced that the next time Lynch touched the football, he was going to walk into the end zone, that anyone unfortunate enough to get in his way would be cast into space like Zod and his friends at the beginning of Superman II. "ALL YOU HAVE TO DO is run the football!", they assure me.

Oh, is that "all you have to do"? If that's so, then why didn't Seattle have ten TDs by this point in the game?

Bill Belichick didn't think that was all they had to do.
Pete Carroll didn't think so, either.
Neither did I.

It appears that we three stood alone. I still think we're right, and the rest of you are wrong.

YTF please post in the bad coaching thread in SE. I want to see the responses.

We've got a flop promotion going on right now - flop quads, a straight flush, or a royal flush, and the entire table gets paid.

Customer: Do you need to have a pair in the hole for quads to count?

Me: No, you can flop quads with just one card. So if you have A2 and the flop is 222, you've won the promo.

Customer: What about for the royal, do you need to use both hole cards to flop the royal or can you use just one?

Me:

Hello all,

I'm usually a lurker, and YTF, I love your stories.

But I must say you are 100% wrong about your analysis of "the Play"

If Seattle started from NE's one yard line, yes, they would have 10 TD, and it's not second guessing. At the party I was at, as soon as he looked to pass, I yelled "what??" so terrible.

And btw, I took your advice on the shortest TD Plus/minus one and a half yards. It was the only bet I placed.

Peace

I don't hate a pass here, but I think some sort of swing pass or a QB bootleg with an option to pass is how I would have liked to see it done.

As a dealer in the Seattle area who dealt Monday night I can tell you this next week is going to be hell. The amount of uneducated discussion over the play will drive me to drink.....or EO

or both?

Most likely

"I'm afraid you still have to make the FIVE card royal to win the promotion, Sir"

Why would you EO from a job that let you drink?

Bootleg would've been fine. I also like to think that if the pass worked, I still would've said "What a stupid call, but it worked, so meh".

One thing that gets me though is everyone saying if they ran on 2nd, they "had" to call a TO. They don't HAVE to call a time out... there's a few options that could've happened where they save their TO. Penalty, injury, , etc. Also, I think an interesting factor would've been the booth... if Lynch looks like he's even close to the line of scrimmage, the booth is going to review it, and Seattle doesn't lose a time out.

SPORTBALL!!!!!! =P

I had a lot of friends who came to me for advice on prop betting this year, and I gave them almost all winners, none of which were even close:

--Yes on Gostkowski's first kickoff being a touchback (he's a tb machine indoors! he had five kickoffs Sunday, five tb's!)

--Amendola's rec yds over (total was 22.5 AND DROPPING, I guess I was the only one who noticed that the offense had turned into the Edelman+Amendola show in recent weeks)

--Yes on will there be a score in the last 2 mins of first half (I joked, "This one is so easy, they should change it to will BOTH teams score in last 2mins1H, just to make it interesting!"...and both teams DID!)

--Yes on will either team score 3 straight times (I kinda backed into this one, as I can't recall ever seeing the losing team do it while the winning team didn't)

--Will SEA score a 4th qtr TD (since their bye in Week 10, the Pats allowed 0 4th qtr TDs this year, and the prop was +135!)

--Lay the world on no safety and no OT (but no one ever takes this advice)

...but the one I loved the most was shortest TD under 1.5. This one usually rolls in after a flag in the end zone sets up first and goal from the one, but the refs swallowed their whistles this game (not a complaint, I think they did a phenomenal job this game, but it sure did hurt this prop). This prop was 7-of-10 in the playoffs coming into this week, and would have been 8-of-10 if Torrie Smith didn't take a taunting call after making catch to give the Ravens first-and-goal on the one. This is the prop I hung my hat on, the first one out of my mouth when asked about props, the one all the NON-BETTORS that I work with remember...and they were sure to give me crap about it on Monday.

"Hey, don't blame me, blame Pete Carroll," I rationalized. "I got you the ball on the one like I promised, but I can't put it in the end zone for you."

NFL coaches and GMs have a saying: "Don't confuse Hope with A Plan." You don't go into a season thinking, "Well hopefully, the young QB will develop, the oft-injured LT will stay healthy...", because that's a recipe for failure. Hoping for a replay stoppage (there hadn't been one all day) or an injury TO (which costs you a TO any way if it's YOUR guy who gets injured) or even a flag (again, if it's YOUR guy, the cost outweighs the TO) seems so remote that the phrase "suboptimal strategy" gives it too much credit.

I also disagree with the bootleg/rollout crowd. New England kept Wilson contained all day; and any play that takes too long to develop or risks losing a few yards would be catastrophic.

Since we are the subject of prop bets and not so much dealing stuff today I have a question about that 1 1/2 yard over/under prop bet and is there a place in a sports book or gaming commission in Nevada that more defines obscure bets?

You walk into a sports book, look over the bets on the screen walk up to the window and bet $11,000 to win 10,000. Looks simple enough and very straight forwards, but is it?

The length of an NFL football is 11 inches. If the nose of the football in an inch away from the goal line the back end would be 12 inches from the goal line. We've all seen measurements in the field of play where a ref takes out a credit card to see if there is any daylight between the chain stick and the ball to measure first downs.

Every hear an announcer then say "its 4th an inches!!!!" or "they need an inch"

If the ball is handed off and run in for a td you'd get credit by the NFL for a one yard touchdown.

Conversely, Lets say a team gets a first down just inside the two. It's so close they need to measure and for the sake of this argument the runner was tackled right on the hash marks because they usually measure right at the spot of the tackle. If short the ref holds the link of the chain and carries the chain over to the hash mark and spots the ball.

The whole nation is watching this measurement and can plainly see the back end of the ball is inside the 2, (if any part of the ball is touching the 2 the ball for stats is called the two)

What football fan has not heard an announcer says "it's 3rd and 2 but really it's third and a LONG one"

So now you've got this prop bet over 1 1/2 yards. The back end of the football is clearly an inch inside the 2 meaning the front end is 11 inches closer, one full foot closer. 12 gazillion eye witnesses have just seen the football placed 1 2/3 yards away from the goal line.

The ball is run in for a touchdown. The official NFL stats say it's a one yard TD run, but you didn't bet the NFL, you bet the casino over 1 and 1/2 yards and everyone in the world just saw the ball is 1 2/3 yards away!

FLOOR!!!! or Judge

as the old commercial used to say, you make the call

And it's still the two until the front of the ball is touching the 1. There are no 1/2 yard plays. With over/under 1 1/2 there will never be a push.

That's my point. For NFL stats that is true, but where does it say at the casino or gaming commission, when you could demonstrate in a court of law the touchdown came from further that 1 1/2 yard out

This reminds me of the old sucker baseball bet, I'll bet you the winning team will outscore the other team more in one inning than the other will score in the whole game

Maybe I don't get this, but wouldn't this lose if - 6 innings went 0-0, 2 innings each went 2-0, 1 inning went 0-3?

yes, that would lose

What i mean by sucker is that it sounds easy to take the accumulation of a team to be able to score more in nine innings than just in one. Of course you will lose but look at it this way. You don't know who is going to win but you are going to have the winning team meaning they will score at least one run. So if the losing team is shut out, you win. If the losing team scores just one run, at worst you push.

It's probably not a great bet if you are playing in Wrigley if the wind is blowing out and Dave Kingman is on one team and Mike Schmidt is on the other, but it you have Pedro facing Sandy Kofax, or Orel Herschiser is facing 1978 Ron Guidry.

Look at it in casino play. Lets play some Caribbean Stud. 5 random cards vs 5 random cards. One side has to make a decision to add 100% of his money to continue, while the other sides risk is limited to knowing it only costs even money if he doesn't have at least Ace King, plus collecting bets every time the players hand is surrendered. While Ace King happens often enough really the casino plays most hands with a least a pair for twice the original bet while only risking one times the original bet if it doesn't qualify. See what I'm sayin'

I think you missed the point of his post. He is saying they make the bet as 1 1/2 yards so that there is no push because they can either make a 1 yard touchdown or a 2 yard touchdown. So... If the ball is not touching the 1 yardline then it is a 2 yard touchdown and if it is touching or inside of the 1 yardline then it is a 1 yard touchdown. DUCY now?