I see this post over and over and over and I disagree with it.

The poker economy and the player pool changes too quickly for this to be true.

So, a 45/hour winrate in the Tunica player pool today would actually be worth a 80/hour winrate in the Commerce player pool from 2006.

Now, if you could make an estimate in what percentile you are playing at, that would be a better indicator.

For example: I am a top 10% player for the underground games in Dallas, and this translates to a top 8% player nationwide, then my winrate would = top 8% x the state of the poker ecomony x my local player pool.

of course, assimilating that much data would be impossible, but sill a more descriptive method. IMO.

So you disagree with statistically significant sample sizes and agree measurements that are not possible.....sounds like a good plan.

come on. be honest. you don't know a good plan from a bad plan.... so why are you commenting?

I get the point you are trying to make with the earnings being different between different areas and times (with the same player). however that's not really discrediting your current hourly win rate. It's just saying if you applied the same win rate (player) to a different locale or time, the numbers would go up or down depending on softness of the game. it doesn't make your per hour winnings useless, just incomplete information. You should be saying for example "I make $40/hr over 2500hrs playing primarily at __________ casino. The method of just saying what percent of the population you are GUESSING that you are in is pretty whack.

I definitely would.

Same here.

Yet that's exactly what untold thousands of players across the country do every week, whether you'd play that way or not.

Not great poker, but doesn't matter - if you have a job, you'll be back, so classical bankroll management math simply doesn't apply. There is 0 risk of ruin. There's only risk of delaying my next poker game a week. Not saying it's smart.

Like I said its probably better with some middle ground. Set aside 1-2k for poker so you are never out of action and if you are a winning player you will make a nice side income.

This is essentially what I do, and when it hits about $10k I'll deposit around $8k or so into the bank - which is actually a joint account with my wife :S

So the question is, if I then have $1k of gambling money on me, what game am I rolled for? Well, if I'm going to be at the casino a long while then I'll play 1-2, but if I'm only going to be there 2-3hrs I'll probably play 5-10NL and if I run bad I'll go have a drink.

Mango it really depends upon what you want. If you really treat it as gambling money then it doesn't really matter as long your having fun and its not causing you financial hardship. If you want to treat it seriously you could do something similar to the following.

Start with 1k grind up to 10k like you said then deposit 6k into joint account

Now you have 4k and use 3k to take a shot at 2/5 if you drop to 1k play 1/2 again. If you grind it up to 15-20k deposit 5-10k into joint account and use 6k for shot at 5/10. If you drop down to 4k of the 10k play 2/5 again.

This helps in a lot of ways. You are never out of action. Your life sees the benefit of you playing. You are pretty much always playing the highest game you can beat.

Let me guess... Harrahs NOLA?

There is terrible BRM advice ITT

If you need to ask about BRM then you likely need 30bi before you start playing higher

Taking a shot doesnt mean that you simply move up until you lose your shot takin roll

It means that you play for a few hrs when the game looks juicy and then repeat when the situation calls for it

Agree about the rake. I suggest that if you a are pro, play the 2nd highest NLHE game offered in the casino. Usually all pros like to like the highest, make the game tougher.

$50-$60 per hour for 2/5 is attainable over the long haul.

In both 1/2 and 2/5 you can make $25 and respective $50 per hour if you play perfectly well without any single mistake. But "playing well" means a lot and an entire book can be written about this subject. I can tell you this: all the money I make are from other people mistakes. When I beat other dude AA is because he didn't play well his AA after the flop.

srou25 has it right.

A couple examples from my casino and this is from 3 different good players (me included)

All 3 played the 1/2 and 2/5 game.

Our 1/2 is really a 1/1/2 with a $4 limp, $6 drop. All 3 of us destroy the game with win rates between $30-$40 per hour

98% of the field are fish. The 2% of regs at this game are not good. They miss value bets and steal opportunities. The don't understand advanced concepts. Some have glaring tells. The drop is brutal and many players buy in short. Calling stations are uncommon. But understanding the casino, the players, keeping a journal, realizing the standard plays these guys make goes quite far. I think this is the main factor for the large win rate.

The 2/5 the other two play (I'm working my way there) and these guys make over 10bb/hr. One has a win rate of $80 per hour. Again most of the players at the 2/5 are not very good. I hear them talking strategy and at best they are as good as the 1/1/2 regs. But there are good players in the mix. In this case though I believe the high win rate comes from the deep stacks. Half the table usually has $1000 in front of them.

So everything matters.

I have another friend of mine on the east coast who plays in this low buy in MTT at his casino. Fast rounds, high casino take. Yet he has a fairly good ROI. Why? Because he knows all the fish that play in the MTT and exactly how they play. The knowledge is gold.

It takes a great deal of discipline and work to play poker well. Now you don't have to be the best or fantastic. You just have to realize your situation and how to best exploit it. Like my 1/1/2 if I see a bunch of nitty old men at the table, I change tables. There is no money there. I want to play bad player and make money and have fun. I am there to entertain them.

A lot of little things contribute to win rate not just super post flop skill. An example is if you are a complete ass at your limit the fish get up from the table and leave because they don't want to play with a jackass that makes their game not fun. Or they buy in short.

So lots of things go in to a good or even great win rate.

At 2/5 prob $20-35 per hour covers 70%+ of winning players. I know very few who have done above $50 over a significant number of hours (at least 500). You probably need 1000 hours in a static environment to obtain an accurate expectation. But the problem is that a lot of things change over such a long period of time (your game might improve, competition might deteriorate/increase, player composition might change, etc). In general, for NL, I would think 4-7 big blinds per hour would be a reasonable expectation for solid winners, 10-15 BBs for the very best, and these numbers might need to be adjusted as the stakes go up. Not sure about limit games.

Pauly - I play full time in vegas and try to maintain a normal schedule. I generally play from noon and am out of the casino by 10:00 pm. So I play some pretty crappy hours - my w/r is top shelf for vegas pros

Brag: I have £170/hr over 250 hours this year (at London casinos)

Really need to think about not posting such good advice..I'm being serious..Ive been amazed through the years at how poor good player's game selection can be..Ive never said a word to them about it ..We should keep it to ourselves IMO

That goes for seat selection too..

good 2/5 player should make around $100/hour

Just wanted to add a few things to this thread.

Game selection is huge when determining or comparing win rates. A 2/5 in Florida plays significantly smaller than one in Vegas or CT. You can still have decent win rates but the games are not created equal.

I think anyone claiming anything above $100/hour is suspect and presumably false. Is it possible? Sure, but I tend to not believe those numbers. $40-70 is probably a more reliable range for 2/5 depending on a variety of factors.

Of course there are factors involved. If your player pool sucks and you understand all their weaknesses its like they play with their hands face up so $100/hr is possible.
I have a friend who says his 1/2 game is tough and more than 1/2 the players are aggressive regulars. Its a new casino that opened up in his area. The man plays poker well and has an IQ of 165. So I believe him.

Here's my small sample size results. Seems like most people think 1000 hours is needed so I'll hold off on patting myself on the back (although posting here is a start).

255.6 Hours
$69.84/hr
Standard Dev: 277.91/hr
Biggest downswing: $1200 (I've had bigger within single sessions, but this is the biggest swing for sessions).

My game is 2-5NL $700 cap. I'd love to move up, but this is the biggest game at the Indian casino I play at. I play 5-10 when I have a chance on trips in LA and Vegas but that's only a few dozen hours a year.

I have a regular job and only get a chance to play a couple 8-10hr sessions a month on Friday nights. I'd bet playing only on Friday night really helps. So does the fact that the average age in the game is about 50.

Very low risk, low variance game for a TAG like myself. Or maybe I'm just enjoying the upside or variance. You're supposed to flop a set about half the time you get a pair, right?

Variance is huge. I just had a 25 hour group of hours where I lost 90% of my hands at live play dumping 4 buyins. No large pots just getting out flopped when ahead. No large pots. Simple AJ calls a raise from my 99 and gets a Jxx flop or my QQ vs KJ and Kxx flop. Most of the money I did make were small bluffs.

I think at least 1000 hours is needed at least to get some measure.