Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz
Could be but all I can say is this has happened 5 straight times after a cashout to me and have heard from others that its happened to them too all who are regular winners in these low/mid stakes games. How many times would it have to happen in a row before it would be more then a coincidence? 20 times 200 times 2000 times?
The problem is, you are getting biased information because you are only ever hearing from people who run below what they think their expectation is after cashing out. For example, how many times has someone told you "I ran at expectation for a week after I cashed out!"? Never because people don't talk that way, they only talk about the bad things that happen to them. So you don't actually know how often it's happening/how many times in a row. If you're looking for anecdotal evidence, I'm sure a ton of people could provide that for you, but your parameters are unclear. How much derivation from an established ROI do you consider running bad/not running bad? How established of an ROI? What time period/number of games from cashing out are you tracking?
Looking at your graph, it says a few things. The first is that you're down 1.2k from your peak, which @ an abi of 26 is under a 50 game downswing. I think everyone here will tell you that if you promised them their biggest downswing would be under 50bi, they'd piss themselves with joy.
Another thing is that in the past 30 days (which I'm guessing is the time period that's frustrating you), you've played 1300 games and have actually made $100. In Jan you played 400 games. In December you played 385. In fact, going back through the past year, it looks like aside from November (1153 games), you've never gotten within 550 games in a full month as you've played in the last 4 weeks.
So is it possible that you started feeling yourself, started studying less, started playing more, maybe started putting more responsibility into poker (quitting your job or something else where you started looking at poker money as a necessity instead of passive income), opened more tables than you're used to, played for longer sessions than you're used to and then on top of that got hit with some fairly normal looking variance?