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Global poker variance Global poker variance

06-22-2022 , 08:55 AM
I appreciate the feedback, but I've played 100s of thousands of cash hands plus almost 10k SNGs & MTTs on the site. I know the player pool and how things run on GP pretty well.

I posted one replay just for kicks and the assumptions and takes about it are hilarious.
06-22-2022 , 12:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by threebanger
I appreciate the feedback, but I've played 100s of thousands of cash hands plus almost 10k SNGs & MTTs on the site. I know the player pool and how things run on GP pretty well.

I posted one replay just for kicks and the assumptions and takes about it are hilarious.
I know the population tendencies for people who post hand histories like this in what has essentially become a bad beat thread.
06-22-2022 , 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Punkey
Please do not post 30-40 of these a day. That is a lot of energy wasted since I am guessing only a handful of people will actually click on them.

Instead, I would like you to take a month off poker. Come back fresh and with a clear mind. I am willing to bet that your results will improve significantly.
Doubtful. The site sucks.
06-22-2022 , 07:24 PM
Interesting article on variance for SNG.

https://www.bestpokersites.org/sng-strategy/variance/

I’ve been a global hater and I have been a fanboy… lol… All I can say is I am up over the long haul (100,000 hands plus). IDK - only play where you are comfortable playing. It hard to tell anything because the player pool likes to chase and the lack of downloadable hand histories.
06-22-2022 , 08:46 PM
I'm both lol...but where I'll disagree a little is the "chase" part. That's what a successful player wants them to do and it's great if the chasers catch just often enough to continue doing it. Chasing should only skew results to better players.
06-22-2022 , 10:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jreven
Interesting article on variance for SNG.

https://www.bestpokersites.org/sng-strategy/variance/

I’ve been a global hater and I have been a fanboy… lol… All I can say is I am up over the long haul (100,000 hands plus). IDK - only play where you are comfortable playing. It hard to tell anything because the player pool likes to chase and the lack of downloadable hand histories.
This article is completely wrong about Heads Up/HUSNG variance. It is not by nature a high variance format, especially compared to 6max/9max sngs lol wtf. As for 6max/9max variance, yea it's pretty significant especially in hyper turbo formats. Run some sims in PrimeDope Tournament variance calculator if you are interested in comparing the difference between the formats.

Last edited by HokieGreg; 06-22-2022 at 10:32 PM.
06-23-2022 , 02:23 PM
Thank you for posting these valuable hand histories. Not only just that, but that you are able to determine this is happening against long term losing players. One thing for sure if a site was to help bad players they are boosting their own bottom line.
I recently got to play live for a solid week. What a rejuvenator. Bad players constantly punished and the best hand winning again and again. Bad beats. Of course. But mostly the best play won. What a concept. Math. Restored my love of the game. First day back at Global? 3 way all in. Worst hand wins. Same as always.
RELEASE FULL HAND HISTORIES
GET A NEW RNG
BE TRANSPARENT
06-23-2022 , 08:06 PM
Here is a hand I just saw. It has absolutely no meaning of anything, but is indicative of what I see on Global, and goes counter to all the hands that other people have posted that "are evidence" of something or other. I see hands like this all the time, and I'm sure the other posters do, too - they just pick and choose the ones they want to share.

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/62...df4a0001640aa6
06-24-2022 , 05:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VBAces
Here is a hand I just saw. It has absolutely no meaning of anything, but is indicative of what I see on Global, and goes counter to all the hands that other people have posted that "are evidence" of something or other. I see hands like this all the time, and I'm sure the other posters do, too - they just pick and choose the ones they want to share.

https://play.globalpoker.com/hand/62...df4a0001640aa6
Pretty standard hand for a rec player but context and history really matters. If you had bluffed that player with blockers previously he may have just decided he's not folding the 2nd nuts that time, even if you were in the big blind etc

We're talking more like small blind 5 bet fist pump ape jams A559r preflop vs utg AAKJds and hits quads. Same player 2 hands later smash jams bare bottom pair no draw vs top set on a dry flop, hitting runner runner quads again. Other such nonsense

No doubt the players are generally really bad and PLO variance is crazy sometimes but it's like I've never seen. Real players are just not that bad even as a day one beginner and they just don't hit miracles with trash so often IRL. I'm on the fence. I think it's bad form for an experienced player to be phased by bad beats but I'm seeing some really anomalous stuff myself that, combined with not being allowed to build a hand history db, kinda makes me wonder.

I'm 60/40 "That's just poker/PLO" but.. it's kinda not tho
06-28-2022 , 12:10 PM
After my last stint playing on there I would say the odds are it’s 65% rigged and 35% legit. Maybe even 70-30… lol… That it for me……

Thanks for introducing me to the game of Omaha global but I will never play on there again. Not even for your free cash.


Later!
06-28-2022 , 01:45 PM
You're suppose to see quads once every 7500 hands if nobody folds right... Why TF have I seen over 30 quads since march playing 2 hours a day 4 days a week. Typically 6 out of 9 fold so the odds of quads would drastically decrease since there are people folding... Quads galore and odd one outers and non stop 1 line straight and flushes lol... This site needs to be audited badly asap. With the lack of hand histories, anyone who is for Global either works for them or must have some interest through this site. I only play with their free cash that they give because investing actual money is almost as foolish as being a dem but maybe deposits change the algorithm since that is how they are making their money. Rather have someone depositing hit, than someone winning on "SC" they provide.

Last edited by JVplay; 06-28-2022 at 01:51 PM.
06-28-2022 , 11:02 PM
At first I gave it the benefit of the doubt and only criticized global for all the other really bad aspects of the site, but after about 100k hands on here, and having played on almost every available site since 2005 (including Ultimate Bet), something's up and it stinks bad. It feels like some sort of carnival poker. Never putting money on this site again.

Buyer/depositer beware. Ignition is far safer.
06-29-2022 , 07:07 PM
This thread has been riveting. Thank you for this. You're an amazing player SirBustalotz. I've watched plenty of your games. Low variance style vs the majority of the field indeed. I play HU on Global as well. Not nearly your volume anymore or as of late but I'm there almost daily. I've had multiple down 20 buy in + runs on Global, but every bad beat i've seen online I've seen live. Every level has maniacs and donks and people that just won't fold, or people that think GTO is playing Limit in NL. Every year has multiple sessions of Miracle Math. If you win 80% over a year that's still a full two months of losing. Well if you play the way you do then the losing is going to be insane ****.

I respect your game and have seen you say you don't want to play regs which is why I haven't sit you. But if you ever see me sitting feel free to come in for a game to say Hi.
But don't play low variance plz.

Global S/N BoxingCritic
06-29-2022 , 10:18 PM
Yo Boxing!

I've also been on a recent bad swing where its seems the worst cards win constantly. Still way up overall but on a 80+ $5 jackpots down swing. Hard not to start thinking somthing is up. Hopefully things turn around, ha.
06-29-2022 , 10:38 PM
It will. You're solid.

The people that play HUSNG's $3 up to only $100 max on Global (it's not that much guys!) are not coming to fold their hands, they play.
A lot of'em play LIMIT style in NL and think it's GTO and well, those are fun games that often put me in tough spots.

Those Jackpot SNG's are variance on steroids x Galactus and fun as hell.
06-29-2022 , 11:22 PM
Well said boss, all I can do is grind through it. Not sure who said it but it's along the lines of " if you're getting sucked out over and over you're palying well ".
06-30-2022 , 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zakaren
Well said boss, all I can do is grind through it. Not sure who said it but it's along the lines of " if you're getting sucked out over and over you're palying well ".
Expressions like this have probably helped me just as much as any technical stuff/theory, and i like this one because it's simple enoughh to remember while you're enraged hah

I trust the rng and site. Lately I've been seeing stuff like 2 accounts sitting out simeltaineously in plo on multiple tables, at the same instant. Considering there are winning bots being sold for GP on the open web, I think the question isn't if but how many. Imo it's comparatively low, GP runs a great site, but all it takes is a few of these paired accounts to bleed all the EV out of a lobby
06-30-2022 , 01:34 PM
I cashed out after last Sunday and my first 3 tourneys last night I lost AA < KK for a big stack, lost JJ <AQ in a satty, and then ran JJ into AA.

Cashout curse confirmed.
06-30-2022 , 05:15 PM



Graph of Deposit/Cashout from Global Poker

99% PLO cashgames from .10/.25 to 10/20

Wins follow loses, and losses follow wins and wins follow losses and..
07-01-2022 , 12:18 AM
So every time you deposit you run well and when you cash out you run bad after. Gonna put this to the test, on a 100 game $5 jackpot downswing myself after binking 2 Jackpots.
07-01-2022 , 11:44 AM
The lack of traffic is an issue. It appears a lot of potential players are skeptical to deposit funds for one reason or another.

I doubt it is because they cant play 20+tables with a HUD and data mine hand histories. There is a lack of trust with a fair RNG and the sweepstakes model to much of the player pool.

My personal experience is seeing a lot if quads and straight flushes that does seem like it happens much more often on Global than anywhere else.

While I offer no evidence of fair or foul play, almost every time there has been an issue that eventually gets proven, when its first mentioned it gets met with great skepticism.
07-01-2022 , 08:05 PM
The perception is that it's like Zynga. All the way down to the manipulated runouts. Right or wrong there it is.

I was surprised when they shut down their sports book arm (Fendoff). Seems like that might be the future but maybe they ran into legality issues with that.
07-01-2022 , 11:48 PM
i've always taken comfort in their rng's cert but anything's possible. soft/hard collusion between stable members, multiaccounting and botting are definitely happening like every other site

"Global Poker’s random number generator (RNG) uses a Mersenne Twister with background cycling. This was certified by iTechLabs on 15 February 2017 and 21 April 2021, who confirmed that it uses a well-known algorithm to generate random numbers. The numbers generated by this RNG have passed Marsaglia’s “diehard” tests for statistical randomness. iTech Labs has found that number sequences are unpredictable, non-repeatable and uniformly distributed. You can read more about Marsaglia on Wikipedia here."

https://globalpoker.com/global-poker-legit
07-02-2022 , 02:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ledn
I cashed out after last Sunday and my first 3 tourneys last night I lost AA < KK for a big stack, lost JJ <AQ in a satty, and then ran JJ into AA.

Cashout curse confirmed.
Cancel that.. I just shipped a Summer Series A event less than a week later. And I knocked out the last 4 people AT>KK, KQs>66 where he flops a set and I go runner runner straight, 22 > 44, and K3 > AJ for the win

No RNG issues here
07-02-2022 , 08:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ledn
Cancel that.. I just shipped a Summer Series A event less than a week later. And I knocked out the last 4 people AT>KK, KQs>66 where he flops a set and I go runner runner straight, 22 > 44, and K3 > AJ for the win

No RNG issues here
You figured it out! You just have to get it in behind. Reverse strategy.

      
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