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Global poker variance Global poker variance

06-10-2022 , 12:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by loveskunk
40-50 my usual stake so I had room to play higher if the games were running and I felt like it. Between 1-2k usually.
Hows your experience been in the cash games?
06-10-2022 , 01:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HokieGreg
Hey Rollinas Hope you have been well.

You work for Global now? Didn't know.
Hey Hokie, thanks, I hope you've been well too! It's hard to believe it has been more than a decade since I had husng lessons with you Yeah, I didn't see myself as a 40 year old online grinder but always wanted to see what it is like on the other side so I've joined Stars initially. One of the benefits of having an office in Malta for Global is that they can access a market of experienced game industry people and that's how I ended up at Global.

Here's a good free resource to play with for HU SNG players, never gets old:

https://husng.com/content/variance-calculator
06-10-2022 , 01:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz
my winrate has stayed the same in husngs since 2008 ish still play on bovada hu's and never noticed anything strange on bovada. Have always maintined an 8%-12% ROI as I stated before.
Rake is rake is 6.5% on Global versus 4.7% on Bovada, so you lose ~2% ROI right there. So your typical 8-12% ROI becomes 6-10%, so variance will increase a bit with a lower winrate.
06-10-2022 , 01:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinas
Hey Hokie, thanks, I hope you've been well too! It's hard to believe it has been more than a decade since I had husng lessons with you Yeah, I didn't see myself as a 40 year old online grinder but always wanted to see what it is like on the other side so I've joined Stars initially. One of the benefits of having an office in Malta for Global is that they can access a market of experienced game industry people and that's how I ended up at Global.

Here's a good free resource to play with for HU SNG players, never gets old:

https://husng.com/content/variance-calculator
Awesome to hear man. I always dreamed of being a 40 year old online grinder, and here I am!
06-10-2022 , 02:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HokieGreg
Rake is rake is 6.5% on Global versus 4.7% on Bovada, so you lose ~2% ROI right there. So your typical 8-12% ROI becomes 6-10%, so variance will increase a bit with a lower winrate.
I understand this also the format is faster on global which also increases variance. Hokie do you remember Icewater17 aka Cakeprodigy from cake/global? We used to be very good friends but he disappeared after the lock scandal always wondered what happened to him.. Also whats your username on global these days?
06-10-2022 , 02:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz
I understand this also the format is faster on global which also increases variance. Hokie do you remember Icewater17 aka Cakeprodigy from cake/global? We used to be very good friends but he disappeared after the lock scandal always wondered what happened to him.. Also whats your username on global these days?
Vaguely remember the screen name. Don't remember him really.
06-10-2022 , 02:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HokieGreg
Vaguely remember the screen name. Don't remember him really.
Im pretty sure him and primordialaa where friends he was a sponsored pro at lock I was about to become one as well right before they went under I had just started receiving monthly payments from whatever that chicks name was that stole all the money and left. Also what nick are you using on global now if you dont mind me asking?
06-10-2022 , 02:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz
Im pretty sure him and primordialaa where friends he was a sponsored pro at lock I was about to become one as well right before they went under I had just started receiving monthly payments from whatever that chicks name was that stole all the money and left. Also what nick are you using on global now if you dont mind me asking?
I PM'd you.
06-10-2022 , 03:07 AM
Also im guessing you're from virginia I play alot of live games as im from west virginia in the wv/va area if you are near bluefield i have a very good omaha game you could play in its 10$ on the button and is very juicy.
06-10-2022 , 03:19 AM
Im probably overthinking all of this especially if hokies saying everything good but I just saw another regs graph that died in march as well bigbuxburo is his name.
06-10-2022 , 05:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz
Im probably overthinking all of this especially if hokies saying everything good but I just saw another regs graph that died in march as well bigbuxburo is his name.
Looks like he just took a shot at 100s and got wrecked.
06-10-2022 , 12:54 PM
You're not even aware that the 7% rake on Global in the HUSNGs are unbeatable for a decent player (long term, many thousands of games). If you're the biggest crusher in the world, you might do a little better than break even.

The games aren't rigged, you just ran hot and now you're going to start approaching reality. Don't feel entitled to permanent rungood. This is poker. Sometimes you lose. You have to. This argument is the exact same as, "BUT STONKS ONLY GO UP!?!?!?"

I have a 53.8% ITM in these games and am barely profitable, but would be crush destroying on other sites. I suggest you email Global support like I did and mention that the 7% fee on these games vs the standard 5% is a problem.
06-10-2022 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CircleOfCysquatch
You're not even aware that the 7% rake on Global in the HUSNGs are unbeatable for a decent player (long term, many thousands of games). If you're the biggest crusher in the world, you might do a little better than break even.

The games aren't rigged, you just ran hot and now you're going to start approaching reality. Don't feel entitled to permanent rungood. This is poker. Sometimes you lose. You have to. This argument is the exact same as, "BUT STONKS ONLY GO UP!?!?!?"

I have a 53.8% ITM in these games and am barely profitable, but would be crush destroying on other sites. I suggest you email Global support like I did and mention that the 7% fee on these games vs the standard 5% is a problem.
I’ve played almost 3k sngs the rakes beatable because the player pool is so much softer compared to other sites.
06-10-2022 , 03:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz
I’ve played almost 3k sngs the rakes beatable because the player pool is so much softer compared to other sites.
3000 games is a tiny sample. Miniscule. Maybe a month of playing.

At the 7% fee, to break even you have to win 54% of the time. Over 10,000 games, almost nobody does. Look at sharkscope. The best in the world with an actual sample size are under 54%. The very best are 53.8-54.x across all sites.

At a 7% fee, The best in the world can maybe break even and if they run good, perhaps even make a small profit (1-2% ROI).

Play 10,000 more games and you'll understand.

Last edited by CircleOfCysquatch; 06-10-2022 at 04:05 PM.
06-10-2022 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz
Hows your experience been in the cash games?
Besides being dry as hell currently likely due to markets, crypto, inflation, and an insane cost of living I have always done pretty good at the cash games on Global. I have been playing online poker since 2005 on infinite different sites and never once was I suspicious of what's going on (never played on UB/AP lol). I will acknowledge I've had the odd refund from guys either colluding or using bots/RTA and I doubt I have been refunded anywhere near how hard I was affected but that's par for the course with online poker unfortunately.
06-10-2022 , 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CircleOfCysquatch
3000 games is a tiny sample. Miniscule. Maybe a month of playing.

At the 7% fee, to break even you have to win 54% of the time. Over 10,000 games, almost nobody does. Look at sharkscope. The best in the world with an actual sample size are under 54%. The very best are 53.8-54.x across all sites.

At a 7% fee, The best in the world can maybe break even and if they run good, perhaps even make a small profit (1-2% ROI).

Play 10,000 more games and you'll understand.
You are really overconfident. Most regs have their sharkscope blocked, especially top regs. The samples you are looking at almost certainly include a not small amount of reg vs reg games at some point in sample - these games will definitely bring down winrate. Winrate vs a soft pool in turbo format is a ton higher than 54% winrate. You are absolutely certain and your doompost % is literally 100% so far so idk why I'm even responding to you. I've played this format for a living for over a decade. Myself and many others I know have won at >54% winrate vs fish specifically (sometimes much higher approaching 60% in slower formats). You can literally just sharkscope the top Global regs with unblocked sharkscope and see that you are wrong lol. This was a waste of my time. **** me.
06-10-2022 , 07:18 PM
The only thing I’m shocked about in this whole thread is that you can find enough action in any sng, hu or not. I don’t even glance at the lobbies anymore on any site I play on. They never even cross my mind anymore. I never played much hu but played the 45 man or full ring on full tilt. I thought they all died after Black Friday
06-11-2022 , 12:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger24
The only thing I’m shocked about in this whole thread is that you can find enough action in any sng, hu or not. I don’t even glance at the lobbies anymore on any site I play on. They never even cross my mind anymore. I never played much hu but played the 45 man or full ring on full tilt. I thought they all died after Black Friday
yes everything is dead relative to pre-BF. 9 man/45 man sngs completely dead.
06-12-2022 , 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinas
Hey Hokie, thanks, I hope you've been well too! It's hard to believe it has been more than a decade since I had husng lessons with you Yeah, I didn't see myself as a 40 year old online grinder but always wanted to see what it is like on the other side so I've joined Stars initially. One of the benefits of having an office in Malta for Global is that they can access a market of experienced game industry people and that's how I ended up at Global.

Here's a good free resource to play with for HU SNG players, never gets old:

https://husng.com/content/variance-calculator
variance calculator is broken
06-12-2022 , 05:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HokieGreg
You are really overconfident. Most regs have their sharkscope blocked, especially top regs. The samples you are looking at almost certainly include a not small amount of reg vs reg games at some point in sample - these games will definitely bring down winrate. Winrate vs a soft pool in turbo format is a ton higher than 54% winrate. You are absolutely certain and your doompost % is literally 100% so far so idk why I'm even responding to you. I've played this format for a living for over a decade. Myself and many others I know have won at >54% winrate vs fish specifically (sometimes much higher approaching 60% in slower formats). You can literally just sharkscope the top Global regs with unblocked sharkscope and see that you are wrong lol. This was a waste of my time. **** me.
Given your authority, I thought twice before this reply. It is you who is wrong, but it's only fair to now say that I play Omaha. Because holdem is boring. In Omaha HUSNG's, I have the highest winrate I've seen (small sample though). There are some people doing really well, counting their MTT wins. But those same people are not profitable in HUSNG. Equities run too close to get higher than 54% ITM, IMO. But I am certainly trying. The math and the reality of the game are what I'm trying to express. But again to be fair, you thought I was talking about holdem.
06-12-2022 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CircleOfCysquatch
Given your authority, I thought twice before this reply. It is you who is wrong, but it's only fair to now say that I play Omaha. Because holdem is boring. In Omaha HUSNG's, I have the highest winrate I've seen (small sample though). There are some people doing really well, counting their MTT wins. But those same people are not profitable in HUSNG. Equities run too close to get higher than 54% ITM, IMO. But I am certainly trying. The math and the reality of the game are what I'm trying to express. But again to be fair, you thought I was talking about holdem.
P90X is just one example he has played almost 9000 hu sngs with a 12% ROI unless hes on the greated run in the history of poker hes crushing those so explain that?
06-12-2022 , 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz
P90X is just one example he has played almost 9000 hu sngs with a 12% ROI unless hes on the greated run in the history of poker hes crushing those so explain that?
Yep. he's crushing over a larger sample. Clearly has a large edge in the field.
06-12-2022 , 06:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CircleOfCysquatch
Given your authority, I thought twice before this reply. It is you who is wrong, but it's only fair to now say that I play Omaha. Because holdem is boring. In Omaha HUSNG's, I have the highest winrate I've seen (small sample though). There are some people doing really well, counting their MTT wins. But those same people are not profitable in HUSNG. Equities run too close to get higher than 54% ITM, IMO. But I am certainly trying. The math and the reality of the game are what I'm trying to express. But again to be fair, you thought I was talking about holdem.
That could very well be the case in Omaha. I have no clue. I kind of feel like you're trolling me just now mentioning its Omaha SNGs lol. Oh well. Attainable winrate is a ton higher in husng for sure.
06-12-2022 , 08:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CircleOfCysquatch
Yep. he's crushing over a larger sample. Clearly has a large edge in the field.
Theres at least 10 of us that have a pretty big edge that I know of.
06-13-2022 , 08:59 PM
Almost at game 800 of breakeven stretch in hu sngs. The streak continues LOL

      
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