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is Winrate Normal distributed? is Winrate Normal distributed?

12-10-2011 , 03:05 PM
Sorry for the BUMP, but something I'm giving a lot of thought to. As relates to small stakes PLO.

I'm thinking limit, which most people who've since the poker boom began would have started at, has almost no huge winning or losing 100 card runs.

But PLO would have some massive winning (and losing) 100 hand runs. They'd look like outliers if you graphed 100 hand runs but they probably account for your entire profit.

Assuming 5 big blind per 100 hand win rate, the following stack wins (net) would allow you to play break even poker for the following number of hands

100 bb -------> 2000 hands

200 bb -------> 4000 hands

500 bb --------> 10000 hands

Looking at the 500 be net win, that could make your win rate for almost 300 hands per hour for 40 hours. Maybe a week and a half or two of play for an online pro.

My interest in this is that I think we all feel too much pressure to make a profit every time we got to the B&M. I feel stupid if the table is multi-way and weak and I don't make a profit. But most of the good multi-way plo advice out there says to play for nuts which are quite rare.

Any thoughts? Thanks in advance
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