SInce last FTP update I've been in set over set situation 8 out of 124 times - Gambling and Probability

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SInce last FTP update I've been in set over set situation 8 out of 124 times

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02-14-2010 , 05:38 AM

rich.mann23

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 31

I've been playing Rush poker. What is the probability of being in a flopped set over set situation 8 out of 124 times?

Thank you

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02-14-2010 , 05:44 AM

arcticbeatle

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 676

Slim to none

How many you win?

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02-14-2010 , 05:46 AM

iopq

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by rich.mann23

I've been playing Rush poker. What is the probability of being in a flopped set over set situation 8 out of 124 times?

Thank you

it depends
if you had the higher set, never
if you had the lower set, somewhere between 95% and 100%

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02-14-2010 , 05:47 AM

SheepMoose

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,172

9.92% I think.

Woops sorry, my maths was wrong.

It's 50%

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02-14-2010 , 07:49 AM

wobuffet

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,084

Try http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/

6max or 9max?

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02-14-2010 , 08:42 AM

DockDD

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 564

8/124 = 6.5%

In holdem, set over set should happen about 1-3% of the time depending on whether or not 22 gets raised out pre, if you get to the river, etc.

In Omaha, 100% chance you are in a set over set situation. Don't worry, someone will back door the flush anyway.

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02-14-2010 , 08:47 AM

DoubleFly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,983

If you mean out of 124 sets, you've been oversetted 8 times, that seems plausible - especially if you 3 bet all your higher pairs and flat lower pairs. It's 8% for you to hit your set, but that means it's 5+% for villain to hit their set on the same board. Obviously higher if there are multiple villains, and higher still if they see a turn (or river) with an overpair.

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02-14-2010 , 08:50 AM

NFuego20

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 4,295

in before merge

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02-14-2010 , 10:54 AM

rich.mann23

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 31

Quote:

Originally Posted by wobuffet

Try http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/

6max or 9max?

I am playing 9 max. I know that you are supposed to be in a set over set situation on the flop about 1% of the time. What is the probability of me running into set over set situations at this rate? I don't care about being the under set or over set, I just want to know that the chances of this happening are. I have never seen this before in my life and I play about 60,000 to 100,000 hand per month.

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02-14-2010 , 11:56 AM

#10

Backspin20

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,856

See how many times when you flop 1000 sets. imo

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02-14-2010 , 11:58 AM

#11

AirborneSapper9845

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,447

Everyone in Rush is set mining like crazy. This seems standard.

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02-14-2010 , 11:58 AM

#12

philsrightthere

banned

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 572

i dont flop sets so i dont have this problem =)

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02-14-2010 , 11:59 AM

#13

Mr.Rec

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 468

Oh dear... No one told you that Howard figuared out how to do this... I wish I can find the link... oh well look for yourself

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02-14-2010 , 12:00 PM

#14

Mr.Rec

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 468

And yes, it has everything to do with the update

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02-14-2010 , 12:06 PM

#15

jukofyork

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 11,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by rich.mann23

I've been playing Rush poker. What is the probability of being in a flopped set over set situation 8 out of 124 times?

As soon as you provide us with a perfect opponent model for every one of your opponents then we'll be able to answer... Without that it's impossible to say.

Juk

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02-14-2010 , 12:09 PM

#16

random hater

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,866

22 vs aa

P(8 or more set over set on flop given that you flop a 2 in 124 trials)=83%

so yeah how you play factors in a lot

flat with 22 a lot vs EP raises?

even if you give him the range ak/aqs 66+ it is still 50% that it happens 8 or more times

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02-14-2010 , 12:11 PM

#17

random hater

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,866

Quote:

Originally Posted by SheepMoose

9.92% I think.

Woops sorry, my maths was wrong.

It's 50%

dead on vs typical EP range

sheep v good at intuitive maths

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02-14-2010 , 02:20 PM

#18

r1tony

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 3,061

Obv the update was to impliment your doom switch. No biggie.

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02-14-2010 , 02:35 PM

#19

Mr.Rec

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 468

Quote:

Originally Posted by r1tony

Obv the update was to impliment your doom switch. No biggie.

Exactly, Howard even says himself.. G***** it I still cant find the link

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02-15-2010 , 12:03 PM

#20

wobuffet

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,084

Quote:

Originally Posted by jukofyork

As soon as you provide us with a perfect opponent model for every one of your opponents then we'll be able to answer... Without that it's impossible to say.

Juk

Well, we could at least calculate an upper bound for the situation by assuming every preflop pocket pair sees every flop, turn, and river?

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02-15-2010 , 09:32 PM

#21

foal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,599

What's with all the BBV style responses? Isn't this the probability forum?

Anyway, jukofyork is technically right, but we could still attempt to make plausible estimations based on how we expect people (including yourself) to play pre-flop. Kind of a tedious problem though.

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02-16-2010 , 01:54 AM

#22

wobuffet

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,084

Quote:

Originally Posted by foal

What's with all the BBV style responses? Isn't this the probability forum?

Pretty sure the topic got moved from Internet Poker or sthg.

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02-16-2010 , 02:50 AM

#23

DockDD

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 564

Quote:

Originally Posted by wobuffet

Well, we could at least calculate an upper bound for the situation by assuming every preflop pocket pair sees every flop, turn, and river?

Isn't that ~3% of the time we have a PP? So this should have happened ~4 times, but happened 8 times. Can we use a Poisson distribution to say this 'bad run' or worse happens about 5% of the time if OP/villians are set miners/short stackers and get to see free turns and rivers with pairs that missed?

Quote:

Originally Posted by wobuffet

Pretty sure the topic got moved from Internet Poker or sthg.

Yep, was in zoo. Mike Haven likes you guys too much to merge this into the 'Rigged' thread.

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02-16-2010 , 07:32 AM

#24

rich.mann23

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 31

If we assume that players always see the flop with a pair, can anyone give me a reasonable estimate of what percentage of the time you should be in a set over set situation in a 9-max game?

Also, what is the probability that someone will be in a set over set situation as often as I was?

Thanks!

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02-16-2010 , 09:57 AM

#25

foal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,599

About 5% I think (assuming you're either the overset or the underset). I didn't calculate the probability of 8, but 5% would be a little over 6, so it seems above average, but not majorly so.

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