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Shoving odds?

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01-03-2010 , 03:03 PM

RobertBlake20

journeyman

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 202

I have a hypothetical shoving situation,and I'd like to know the odds please. The hero is in the CO pos. with a top 12% hand. What are the odds of the BU,SB, or BB having a better hand? I appreciate the help.

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01-03-2010 , 03:28 PM

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Umm, 12% each? So roughly [1 - (88%^3)] = 32% or about 2:1 against.

The thing is, a "better hand" doesn't really mean a hand in the top 12%, since that is only against a random hand, not against another 12% hand or against any specific hand. We can easily find hands not in the top 12% that are favorites over some top 12% hands in specific matchups. So I think you need to ask this question for a specific hand, not a "top 12%" hand, as I think the answer isn't very useful.

Last edited by spadebidder; 01-03-2010 at 03:42 PM.

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01-03-2010 , 05:30 PM

RobertBlake20

journeyman

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 202

Thanks for the reply spade. I should have phrased the question differently.I guess the question is more of a range type situation,as in if the villians calling ranges are 12% how often are they folding to a shove.

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