Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards?

09-03-2011 , 02:29 PM
Full ring cash game, action is folded round to hero in the small blind.

Given 7 opponents have already folded, should we weight the big blind's range more towards high cards?

We could do this in a similar way to how we put players on a range when they raise.

e.g. if someone has a VPIP of 5% then we put them on TT, AQ+, this means if they fold then pre-flop we can put them on the other 95%. We could even do this using positional stats.

My question is, is this worth doing or would the difference to be the big blind's range be negligable?
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote
09-03-2011 , 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suzukishosan
Full ring cash game, action is folded round to hero in the small blind.

Given 7 opponents have already folded, should we weight the big blind's range more towards high cards?

We could do this in a similar way to how we put players on a range when they raise.

e.g. if someone has a VPIP of 5% then we put them on TT, AQ+, this means if they fold then pre-flop we can put them on the other 95%. We could even do this using positional stats.

My question is, is this worth doing or would the difference to be the big blind's range be negligable?
No. Alo klo etc are folds from most positions whereas T9 etc are playable from a lot of positions. I don't make any kinds of card removal calf's based on people folding pre.
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote
09-03-2011 , 02:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJFL
No. Alo klo etc are folds from most positions whereas T9 etc are playable from a lot of positions. I don't make any kinds of card removal calf's based on people folding pre.
I realize it's not perfect, people do fold hands with aces in but they are less likely to fold these hands than 2x hands for example
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote
09-03-2011 , 03:13 PM
The effect is pretty small except in a loose game, and in a loose game the situation is pretty rare.

Suppose for example that people play any hands with two cards T or higher. 18.53% of the time, none of the first seven hands will qualify. When that happens, they'll have an average of 3.75 cards of T or higher, versus the average of 5.38 you would compute before knowing they all folded. That's not totally insignificant, but it doesn't change your play much (it might matter later in certain out-counting situations). However, that's an extreme assumption, people will throw away a lot of QT hands in early positions and will play a lot of hands with cards lower than T, especially after a bunch of folds.
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote
09-03-2011 , 03:32 PM
We're supposed to be aggressive in late position for a reason...and isn't because the blinds are expected to have more high cards than normal. Please don't follow this logic further...I believe it will only result in pain.
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote
09-03-2011 , 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJFL
We're supposed to be aggressive in late position for a reason...and isn't because the blinds are expected to have more high cards than normal.
Please don't follow this logic further...I believe it will only result in pain.
last time i checked the small blind was out of position not late position

Also i haven't mentioned strategy so i don't know why you're assuming i'm going to incorrectly implement any of this into my strategy

Last edited by Suzukishosan; 09-03-2011 at 04:27 PM.
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote
09-03-2011 , 04:21 PM
you lost me here dude, 3.75 cards??

Quote:
Originally Posted by AaronBrown

When that happens, they'll have an average of 3.75 cards of T or higher, versus the average of 5.38 you would compute before knowing they all folded.
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote
09-03-2011 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJFL
We're supposed to be aggressive in late position for a reason...and isn't because the blinds are expected to have more high cards than normal. Please don't follow this logic further...I believe it will only result in pain.
Well, the problem is that you are technically wrong. There are small card removal effects. The only thing you are right about is that it usually isn't worth worrying about because the effect is small.
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote
09-03-2011 , 06:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherman
the effect is small.
can we quantify it though? or even better has it already been done?
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote
09-03-2011 , 10:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suzukishosan
can we quantify it though? or even better has it already been done?
It's been done (Barry Greenstein wrote simulations that worked on this a long time ago) and it can be done again. You just need to make assumptions about folding ranges for each position. I have already been convinced (more than once) and don't want to do the work involved for solving this problem again.

Maybe someone else will, or maybe someone will come along with a link that points to this more directly. But as the other poster said, unless you have some sort of reason for really caring about this, the small effects tend not to matter so much that you should adjust your play much if any at all.
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote
09-04-2011 , 09:06 PM
At a two player table, the SB shoving 10 BBs with A2o into a player in the BB with a calling range of 55+,A5s+,KQs,A6o+ has an EV of 0.87084 BB. The Big blind calls 13.1%.
At a ten player table, the players will fold all hands except the following:
UTG: 99+,AQs+,AKo
UTG+1: 88+,AQs+,AQo+
UTG+2: 77+,AJs+,QJs,JTs,AQo+
UTG+3:44+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo
UTG+4: 22+,A8s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,A9o+,KJo+
HJ: 22+,A5s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KJo+,QJo,JTo
CO: 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,A4o+,K 9o+,Q9o+,J9o+
BTN: 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,A2o+, K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o

With the same strategy for the blinds, the BB calls 14.6% and the SB has an EV of 0.80754 BBs. I ran a simulation with 2,000,000 trials of the 10 player table.

So the difference is 0.0633BBs, or 6.33 BB/100 for this strategy. So this means that when you have A2o your strategy is 6.33BB/100 more when there are two players compared to when there are 10 players.

I haven't put a lot of time into the ranges of the players, I just wanted to give an example showing roughly how much card folding can affect a strategy. This is easy to do using CardrunnersEV, it is a very powerful poker analysis tool.
SB v BB. Should our calculations be adjusted for folded cards? Quote

      
m