Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 11,877
Can you win more than once? If you can, it's about 1 in 16.5.
1 - (1 - 20000/3200000)^10 ≈ 1 in 16.5
Technically the 3200000 goes down by 1 every time, but that doesn't matter.
If you can't win more than once, then in theory it could depend on the distribution of the other entries among the players. In an extreme case, if there were 10 or fewer players, you'd win for sure. But if everyone had 20000 entries like you, so there are 160 players, then your chance would be (20000/3200000)*10 = 1 in 16.
