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06-28-2014 , 08:58 PM
Im trying to figure out the chances of winning this promotion if you would not mind. The promotion is you get one entry per every hand your dealt into, and there is 10 winners picked a week. Now on this site, I did the math looking from the start of the poker week to the end and about 3.2 million hands dealt. Can anyone explain my chances of winning if I get say 20000 hands in in a week? so its

3.2 million hands played total. 10 winners picked. 1 entry per hand played
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06-28-2014 , 11:46 PM
Can you win more than once? If you can, it's about 1 in 16.5.

1 - (1 - 20000/3200000)^10 ≈ 1 in 16.5

Technically the 3200000 goes down by 1 every time, but that doesn't matter.

If you can't win more than once, then in theory it could depend on the distribution of the other entries among the players. In an extreme case, if there were 10 or fewer players, you'd win for sure. But if everyone had 20000 entries like you, so there are 160 players, then your chance would be (20000/3200000)*10 = 1 in 16.
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