Quote:
Originally Posted by JustinZee
Say I am getting 1.4-1 to call a preflop allin with A8o. What % equity do I need against my opponents hand range to make a profitable call? Also, how wide a range does he have to be shoving for a call to be correct?
Sorry OP, this is going to sound offensive. But I really am curious as to how you have been a member on these poker forums for nearly 3 years and you don't know how to answer this question. These sorts of problems are so incredibly fundamental to playing successful poker that I am bewildered by the fact that you don't know this (I do mean you personally because I recognize your SN, which means I know you have been around for a while and my memory tells me that you are not a troll and make reasonable posts often).
In any case, if you are get 1.4-1 you can figure out the equity you need to at least break even by converting the odds into a percentage. That is done by take the 1.4 and dividing it by 1.4+1, so 1.4 / 2.4 = .58333 or 58.33%. That is the break even equity. If you have more than that, calling has a positive expectation.
Now that we know the equity needed to be profitable, we can answer your second question by saying, "how wide of a range does villain need to be shoving for A8o to have greater than 58.33% equity?" To answer this, we can go to Pokerstove and enter different hand ranges for villain until our hand of A8o has more than 58.33% equity. This takes some trial and error, but here is if villain shoved with 75% of his hands.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
18,616,169,088 games 23.344 secs 797,471,259 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.730% 55.84% 01.89% 10395534180 351641610.00 { A8o }
Hand 1: 42.270% 40.38% 01.89% 7517351688 351641610.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J4o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }
We still don't quite have enough equity (57.73%) against a range that includes Q2o, J4o, 96o, any suited Js, etc. Here is 84.6%.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
21,164,077,440 games 26.500 secs 798,644,431 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.538% 56.83% 01.70% 12028490292 360439956.00 { A8o }
Hand 1: 41.462% 39.76% 01.70% 8414707236 360439956.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T3o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o }
Finally, we get just enough equity to make calling profitable. But only barely. And villain has to be shoving nearly 85% of hands for it to be so. So let's take a look at any two cards (i.e. a random hand):
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
25,170,868,800 games 30.954 secs 813,170,149 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.873% 58.37% 01.50% 14693282100 377172774.00 { A8o }
Hand 1: 40.127% 38.63% 01.50% 9723241152 377172774.00 { random }
We are about 1.5% above what we need to break even if villain shoves any two cards.
So in short, for a call with A8o to be profitable, villain must be shoving with a wide range. However, keep in mind that in practice villains sometimes overbet shove with wider ranges than they raise with. Meaning that villain might make a normal sized raise with his strongest hands (e.g. AA) hoping for action. But shove with his weakest. In that case, your equity against his range would be stronger than indicated by these numbers here. So of course, the more precise you can be about villain's range the more precise your estimate of your equity will be.
