Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register

03-07-2011 , 04:59 PM
Hi guys,

I would like to know how can I calculate the probability that somebody got 99on river in this situation:

I have 77
5 players on river

BOARD: 9 7 2 2 2

¿Probability someone has 99?

I would like to know how can i calculate it not the result.

Thanks you!
Quote
03-07-2011 , 05:32 PM
Well if he can have any two cards:

With 7 cards known, there are 3 combinations of 99 out of 45*44 total combinations= .0015 = .15%

But this is clearly unrealistic in poker. You want a conditional probability based on his range. He will have a range that contains x combinations of 99 out of y total combinations. p=x/y.
Quote
03-07-2011 , 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bschr04
Well if he can have any two cards:

With 7 cards known, there are 3 combinations of 99 out of 45*44 total combinations= .0015 = .15%
45*44/2 for 0.3%.
Quote
03-07-2011 , 05:42 PM
grrr - rust
Quote
03-07-2011 , 05:53 PM
But OP asked about 4 remaining players. Multiply Bruce's result by 4.

There are 45 unknown cards, three of which are 9’s. For one of your four opponents, the probability he has two nines is C(3,2)/C(45,2) – the number of combinations of 2 nines out of 3 divided by the number of ways he can be dealt 2 cards from 45. Since any one of the four players can have the pair of nines and no more than one, you multiply this result by four.

Pr(one of 4 players has 99|3 nines left in ‘deck’ of 45)
= 4 *3/(45*44/2) = 0.01212

Using direct probabilities
Pr = 4*(3/45)*(2/44)
Quote
03-07-2011 , 06:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
But OP asked about 4 remaining players. Multiply Bruce's result by 4.

There are 45 unknown cards, three of which are 9’s. For one of your four opponents, the probability he has two nines is C(3,2)/C(45,2) – the number of combinations of 2 nines out of 3 divided by the number of ways he can be dealt 2 cards from 45. Since any one of the four players can have the pair of nines and no more than one, you multiply this result by four.

Pr(one of 4 players has 99|3 nines left in ‘deck’ of 45)
= 4 *3/(45*44/2) = 0.01212

Using direct probabilities
Pr = 4*(3/45)*(2/44)
hmm i think i can understand your idea, so its basically:

V(5,1)*(C(3,2)/C(45,2))= 0.01515

right?
Quote
03-07-2011 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnec_wow
hmm i think i can understand your idea, so its basically:

V(5,1)*(C(3,2)/C(45,2))= 0.01515

right?
Only if there are 5 players on the river in addition to yourself. If there are 4 in addition to yourself, then it is C(4,1)*C(3,2)/C(45,2) =~ 0.01212.
Quote
03-07-2011 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruceZ
Only if there are 5 players on the river in addition to yourself. If there are 4 in addition to yourself, then it is C(4,1)*C(3,2)/C(45,2) =~ 0.01212.
ok thanks you all
Quote

      
m