probability of pocket aces just once in 2,400 hands? - Gambling and Probability

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probability of pocket aces just once in 2,400 hands?

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07-11-2008 , 12:57 AM

PH3NOM

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 129

title says it all. running bad sucks: (

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07-11-2008 , 01:06 AM

PH3NOM

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 129

unbelievable.

literally 30 seconds after making this post, i got dealt aces on two of my 6-8 tables.

took one guy for 180BB.

the curse is over. thank you 2p2

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07-11-2008 , 10:01 AM

Readmyballs

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 404

Quote:

Originally Posted by PH3NOM

unbelievable.

literally 30 seconds after making this post, i got dealt aces on two of my 6-8 tables.

took one guy for 180BB.

the curse is over. thank you 2p2

It was a pleasure.

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07-11-2008 , 10:27 AM

Pcallinallin

formerly the original donkey penis

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 5,035

Still around 1:220

Everytime

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07-11-2008 , 11:47 AM

BiiiiigChips

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 7,480

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcallinallin

Still around 1:220

Everytime

Hmm. I might understand the question wrong but isn't he asking the probablility of not getting AA at least once in 2400 hands?

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07-11-2008 , 03:28 PM

findingneema

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 5,759

For a random (this is key) stretch of 2400 hands, you will get AA less than twice only 0.022% of the time.

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07-11-2008 , 03:55 PM

xTBONEx

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 552

you should play omaha... you get aces every other hand it seems, but generally you don't want it.

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07-12-2008 , 12:36 AM

PH3NOM

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 129

Quote:

Originally Posted by findingneema

For a random (this is key) stretch of 2400 hands, you will get AA less than twice only 0.022% of the time.

thanks, that answers the question i was asking.

poker is a sick, sick game.

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07-12-2008 , 01:54 AM

hobokes

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 6,344

very small

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07-12-2008 , 12:21 PM

#10

Sevenfold

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,910

Yeah, but we need to change it now:

What are the odds of getting aces 3 times in 2,450 hands?

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07-13-2008 , 07:16 PM

#11

wobuffet

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,084

Binomial distribution, p = 1/220.

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07-13-2008 , 07:19 PM

#12

findingneema

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 5,759

Quote:

Originally Posted by wobuffet

Binomial distribution, p = 1/220.

nitty correction: p = 1/221

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07-13-2008 , 09:03 PM

#13

jay_shark

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 3,655

Quote:

Originally Posted by PH3NOM

title says it all. running bad sucks: (

This is a binomial distribution and I've included the solution below if you're interested.

There are 2400C1 choices for when you may be dealt pocket aces. The probability you get dealt pocket aces is 4C2/52C2 and the probability you do not get dealt pocket aces is (52C2 - 6)/52C2

The overall probability is

2400C1*(4C2/52C2)^1*((52C2-6)/52C2)^2399 ~ 0.000204534 or about 2 times in 10,000 trials of intervals of length 2,400.

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