Quote:
Originally Posted by Elninho
Hi play some HU SNGs for fun. Could anyone show how i calculate probabilities for this example. Just think it would be fun to learn.
I had a guy All inn 5 times for his tournament life. I had him all inn with theese percentages in my favor. 46% 75% 55% 73% and 33%. So whats the chance for the guys to survive this 5 times? It was quite fun just shook my head, but it happens quite often in HU SNGs. So just figured it would be fun to calculate.
Kind Regards Elninho
Just take the product of his chances which is 1 minus each of your chances.
0.54*0.25*0.45*0.27*0.67=0.010989675
It doesn't happen quite often. With those exact equities, it happens 1.1% of the time.
A more realistic example is when your average equity over a streak of all-in confrontations is 50%. Then the chance to survive 5 times (for either player) is .5^5 = 3.1%
Winning tournaments requires you to get lucky and win your all-ins. If you have to get it in 5 times with the short stack, you will probably not win.
