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OESD odds question.

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11-07-2014 , 01:17 AM

redrex003

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 179

On flop an open ended straight draw pot is $100 $40 to me to call villian has about $70 behind I'm OOP, call, raise or fold?

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11-07-2014 , 10:27 AM

RustyBrooks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 24,647

I'd pick D: post in a holdem strategy forum

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11-07-2014 , 11:46 AM

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

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Originally Posted by redrex003

On flop an open ended straight draw pot is $100 $40 to me to call villian has about $70 behind I'm OOP, call, raise or fold?

The pot odds for basing a call can be calculated here, but that is only one factor in the decision of what to do.

Pot odds here are 100:40 or 2.5:1.

We'll assume your equity is purely a factor of winning when you hit the straight and losing when you don't, making it about 31%. In pot odds that means you need at least 69:31 to call, or 2.2:1.

So you do not have correct pot odds to call this bet. That means your only choices are to raise or fold. And that is a strategy question that probably needs a lot more information to answer.

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11-07-2014 , 12:46 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,045

The pot odds of 2.5 to 1 is better than the minimum needed of 2.2 to 1,so on a purely math basis, the call is +EV given the limited data provided. But, even better is the implied winnings potential. Usually a straight draw is fairly well hidden compared to a flush draw, so there is a reasonable chance you can get villain’s remaining 70 stack if you do hit provided he doesn’t hit a higher straight or flush or better(RIO situation).

OP, you can get more informative answers if you supply all the info you know and which should be used to make a decision -- stack sizes, position, your hand, flop, villain range estimate, villain stats, etc.

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11-07-2014 , 01:18 PM

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

The pot odds of 2.5 to 1 is better than the minimum needed of 2.2 to 1,so on a purely math basis, the call is +EV given the limited data provided.

Yep, my mistake.
But it's still wrong because I did the equity for two streets, not one. Call is based on one street, and the chance to hit there is simply 8/47 or 17%. So the odds needed to call are 83:17 or 4.9:1.

So he can't call based on that unless the other guy was all-in.

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11-07-2014 , 03:37 PM

nickthegeek

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 274

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

So you do not have correct pot odds to call this bet. That means your only choices are to raise or fold. And that is a strategy question that probably needs a lot more information to answer.

I disagree with this. It depends on how Villain is going to react to Hero's actions. For instance, if he always calls a push on the flop and always shoves on the turn if Hero calls, calling the flop would be by far the best option.

Last edited by nickthegeek; 11-07-2014 at 03:43 PM.

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