I found a statistic anomaly in the playoff games in this season. Yes, the NFL doesn't record statistics for playoff games, but some stats are still available, not because they are important, no but because some people find them odd and report about them.
Let's take a look at the playoff run of the Jets this season. Magically all the field goals of their opponents miss. Here's a list of the field goal attempts, I won't count the 57 yarder, because that one has a lower probability to hit.
Games of the New York Jets in the playoffs in the 2009 season:
AFC Wildcard playoff game: January 9, 2010: team: kicker: Shayne Graham
team: Cincinatti Bengals
28 yarder: miss
35 yarder. miss
regular season accuracy: 85%
AFC Divisional playoff game: kicker: Nate Kaeding
team: San Diego Chargers
37 yarder: miss
57 yarder: miss
40 yarder: miss
regular season accuracy: 87%
Ok, the probability of missing 4 in a row is (1-0.85)^2*(1-0.87)^2 = 0.038% or 1:2632
Nate Kaeding's playoff statistics are 3 made kicks out of 9.
I know I'm only allowed to account for 3 missed kicks. Then the probability is (1-0.85)*(1-0.87)^2 = 0.25% or 1:400
How often should this happen, when there are 11 games in the playoffs and 4 branches in the tree?
Sorry man but this doesn't prove anything. You can't use NFL regular season FG data and extrapolate it into the post season. Post season FG accuracy is a whole different animal due to the increased pressure and intensity. Even if Nate Kaeding had made 6/6 postseason FGs there is simply not enough data to make a viable statistical conclusion about the increased misses resulting from the NFL fixing games.
Indeed. The play below was not eligible for review and had no impact on the outcome of the game except for the betting public. If this does not prove games are fixed, nothing will.
Wow, a sample size of 9. In a playoff situation with a lot more pressure.
Logical that the kickers were in on this massive conspiracy and chose to miss kicks on purpose and risk their jobs so that half of the betting community including the OP I assume lost on their bets.
All this proves is some people think the world revolves around themselves.
As much as I hate talking about intangibles in sports like "pressure" and "momentum", I have to concede that consecutive FG kicks are almost certainly not random independant trials.
I would guess that missing an important kick increases the likelihood of missing another later in the same game.
