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It's not called getting lucky that i know. It's not called getting lucky that i know.

09-06-2014 , 01:13 AM
So i would like to know what you guys call this?
I know that luck does not exist.
Doyle say's its "playing your rush".
This is not a bad beat story, i am pretty much over that mainly because of the group on this board. Thanks to all of you.
If someone could please tell me what the odds are of this, as i see it live quite often and it has never happened to me live!
Most of my live play is MTTs, this was.
I was at the table for 74 minutes it was 10 handed for half of that time.
I lost 4 times (buyins) to the villain in this story and he also took down 2 others.
6 hands in 74 mins. (not counting what he didn't showdown)
At the time of my first hand vs him i kinda new he was nuts. (as i had seen the other two hands he had played to show down)
All raises were 3 to 5 bb.

1. me AQh btn, Villain sb had KQch,
flop was A 3 8 (2 clubs) he had Kc
He bet pot, I 3x rasie, he pushes, i call, and lose to runner flush.

2. me KQd in CO call a min raise, villain 3x pot frm btn, i call,
flop K 4 7 ddh i bet, he pushes, i call, he turns over 59s i lose to straight.

3. me btn min raise A6s, he calls from sb, flop 456r, he bets, i raise, he pushes, and i call, he turns over 9 10 i lose to a straight.

4. me btn A 10s i raise, he calls his SB, flop 10 6 3r i bet, he raises, i 3bet, he pushes, i call, he turns over J3s i lose to trips.

the next 2 hands he eliminated 2 other players who did not rebuy.

5. he is up against 1 player oop, raise and call pre.
flop Q 6 A he bets, player raises, villain pushes and gets called.
he has 34o player has pocket QQ she loses with trip Q to a straight.

6. he is up against 1 player oop, he sb player bb, he raises, bb calls,
flop is A69r he villain bets, bb raises, villain pushes, and bb calls.
player turns over A6 villain turns over 49o and wins with trips.

If villain wasn't getting lucky what is that ^ called?
All of that happened in 74 mins live any idea what the odds are? (full ring)
I see this alot live in these rebuy MTT's and not sure what to make of it. The only thing i can think of is that its not that unusual for this to happen. Does some one run like this once every 5 games?
10? 40? 100?
Just not sure what it is, or what to make of it, or what to do.
Thanks for reading the ramble.

Last edited by apkrnewb; 09-06-2014 at 01:33 AM.
It's not called getting lucky that i know. Quote
09-06-2014 , 01:26 AM
It's called luck. RIP Doyle.
It's not called getting lucky that i know. Quote
09-06-2014 , 09:13 AM
It's not true that luck "doesn't exist"

It's just not something that affects the future. It's a term that can be used to describe the past, though, when someone encounters a string of events that were more favorable than average.

There is no point in trying to calculate the chance of this having happened. Don't even try. What would you gain from knowing the number?
It's not called getting lucky that i know. Quote
09-06-2014 , 12:07 PM
I was just trying to see how often of an occurrence this particular group of hands in this time frame would be? (math speaking) Thus hoping to figure out how often i can look forward to sitting through it. ie: is it unusual or not for one guy to get that many hands in 74 mins.
It's not called getting lucky that i know. Quote
09-06-2014 , 03:33 PM
Impossible to answer because missing a bunch of details.
It's not called getting lucky that i know. Quote
09-06-2014 , 06:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by apkrnewb
I was just trying to see how often of an occurrence this particular group of hands in this time frame would be? (math speaking) Thus hoping to figure out how often i can look forward to sitting through it. ie: is it unusual or not for one guy to get that many hands in 74 mins.
If the 74 minutes is cherry picked in hindsight because of what happened then the probababilty is 100%.
It's not called getting lucky that i know. Quote
09-07-2014 , 01:26 AM
Wow thanks guys!
Yikes i thought it would be way way way rarer than that.
I'm figuring 24 hands in that first 74 mins of the tourney. So i was figuring something like %25. Don't know what happened after that as i was only playing for the first 74 mins then ran out of rebuys, this was live so very slow and costly compared to online.
It's not called getting lucky that i know. Quote
09-11-2014 , 12:06 AM
Calculating preflop odds and whatnot is too complex to calculate so I decided to take the liberty of doing a postflop calculation for each of the 6 scenarios and his chances of winning each:

1) 3.74% chance of winning

2) 13.89% chance of winning

3) 24.38% chance of winning

4) 21.13% chance of winning

5) 3.23% chance of winning

6) 8.69% chance of winning

So lets calculate the total of these in succession by multiplying them together. This gives the total .000075%

In other words it is about 3/4ths of a million to one chance for this to happen.

It is the equivalent of rolling two Yahtzees straight in a row only a tad bit worse. It is also the equivalent of beating your nephew 21 times in a row playing Candy Land only a significant amount better. In other words this is a pretty damn rare occurrence.

However, there are also about 18 other hands that have taken place and in order to figure out the true chance of this happening we must have all of the given sample and not specific ones picked out. It is rare rolling two Yahtzees in a row, but not quite so rare throwing two in one game. Also, if I play my nephew at Candy Land 37 times winning 21 of them isn't really all that rare or unexpected.

What happened the other hands where he got all-in did he win or lose and with what?
It's not called getting lucky that i know. Quote
09-11-2014 , 12:39 AM
Thanks Godson. Yes he won a bunch of those also (just can't remember them). Since he was to my immediate left and i saw he was playing crap crap a minimum of 1 out of every 3 hands i went after him and it cost me 4 buyins. LOL
Thanks for your work, a lot of times after i lose 4 tourney buy-ins i start second guessing myself and not attributing the loss to bad luck. Instead start beating myself up for being and idiot and not folding when ever he bets.
It's not called getting lucky that i know. Quote

      
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