How to hold a thing longest? - Gambling and Probability

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How to hold a thing longest?

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11-12-2014 , 11:43 PM

bin125

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5

I am playing a game, even though think hard, I haven't find a good strategy. From 8 am to 23 pm, people of Mobile service can send sms to receive an Ipad air. After you send sms, you will receive a message say that you are holding Ipad. But if another send sms right after you, he will take the Ipad instead, and the process repeat. Because of delay, I dont know exactly when getting Ipad and when it is lost. With 1000 sms, what is the best strategy? Thank you for any comment or suggest.

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11-13-2014 , 12:05 AM

RustyBrooks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 24,647

So at the end of this period, whoever sent the last message gets it? Seems like there is no point but to flood send messages at the very end?

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11-13-2014 , 05:01 AM

bin125

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5

OH I forgot. The winner is one who has hold the Ipad longest. Time is added every time you hold.

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11-17-2014 , 02:38 AM

Gunblade

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 447

Sounds like you'd have to spam the service, at which point you've probably spent enough on sms (Most likely premium number) to buy one for yourself, your family, your extended family, your friends, and their friends, friends...

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11-19-2014 , 10:23 AM

Lifetimetilt

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 15

if you dont have to pay for sms and have enough time you should send one sms every minute and 100 additionally.

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11-22-2014 , 02:40 AM

bin125

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5

Thanks, it sounds interesting and... funny. I spend to use out of 1000sms, cost about 20$ . But there are so many players, so if I spend for my family, my extended family, my friends... it is too expensive to get a expected result

)

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11-22-2014 , 02:50 AM

bin125

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lifetimetilt

if you dont have to pay for sms and have enough time you should send one sms every minute and 100 additionally.

Thank you. I tried many strategies, such as every 5 minutes, every 1 minutes, every 30 seconds... and I found that if the distance is large, I just can hold Ipad for at most 2 seconds, many times 1 second. If I send 10 continued sms every 6 seconds, I could get about 40 to 50 seconds, i.e 4-5 seconds/ sms. The limit of sms is 1000, and it cost 20 $. Many winners have results of about 50 minutes totally. I'm sure that if i could have 6 seconds for 1 sms, i will win. Hope to see your comments and suggests.

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11-22-2014 , 03:59 AM

jukofyork

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 11,749

Perhaps send more (all?) during the 12am-8am time-period (ie: others sleeping) and possibly also the 9am-5pm time-period (ie: others at work)?

Juk

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11-25-2014 , 05:06 PM

AAFunk

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 61

Just read quickly, though my thoughts:

your expected return/chance: number of texts * expectation per text
as you've decided on x amount of texts, the free variable is expectation per text. the way I would go about raising this factor is by choosing whichever timeframe you believe has the lowest number of texts incoming.(I now see jukofyork put up this point already)

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11-27-2014 , 02:55 AM

#10

bin125

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5

Quote:

Originally Posted by AAFunk

Yeah, I have thought about this, and I believe that others think too

. Game begins at 8 am and end at 11 pm. So I focus at 4 important timeframe:
8 am to 9 am: when people have to work or eat breakfast.
12 am to 2 pm : people have lunch and rest
5pm to 7pm: when people get back home or have dinner

and the most important is 9pm to 11pm : when many players quit, I think I should have the best strategy in this period.
Since some players think like me, the question is that : in each timeframe, when there are about 50 players, what is the best strategy? What is the distance between times sending sms?
Thank you all for comments.

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11-29-2014 , 11:07 AM

#11

AAFunk

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 61

Assuming the other '50' guys are equally thinking, the strategy could turn into actual game theory. If you think some x time would be needed, then you'd need to let that much pass between some of your texts, to avoiding 'blocking' yourself, as I understand the rules. Though you can yourself change this 'time needed to time' through the strategy that you apply as this will affect the other guys. Probably way overkill though, so I'd just fire all of them off randomly in that period you choose.
tl;dr : bla bla, lots of ideas, some far fetched maybe, overkill anyway - thus: fire as many as possible in the best timeframe

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