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Holding KK vs AA: The math of it Holding KK vs AA: The math of it

09-11-2011 , 10:52 AM
What are the odds of holding KK vs AA in a full ring cash game?
Holding KK vs AA: The math of it Quote
09-11-2011 , 11:12 AM
You have the KK?

9 or 10 handed?

If you have KK there are 50 cards left in the deck. The probability of a single opponent getting dealt AA is 4//50 * 3/49 = .004898.

The probability of single opponent not getting AA is 1 - .004898 = .995102. With 9 opponents the probability that no one holds AA is approximately .995102^9 = .956772.

Therefore the probability that at least one opponent holds AA is .043228. So if you hold KK at a 9 handed game UTG and no one else has acted, there is just over a 4% chance someone else holds AA. At a 10 handed game simply change the 9 to a 10 and get .047914.

I'd start mucking KK PF UTG if I were you. :-)
Holding KK vs AA: The math of it Quote
09-11-2011 , 02:35 PM
This isn't exactly right Sherman because of card removal effects. Also you have confused the 9 and 10 handed scenarios. (.995102)^9 is the 10-handed scenario while (.995102)^8 is the 9-handed scenario since we now have 8 opponents.

How to appropriately calculate the probability is discussed here:

http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp35/

So the probability of running into AA when you have KK is:

10-handed: 0.04393
9-handed: 0.03906

Last edited by tringlomane; 09-11-2011 at 02:36 PM. Reason: clarity
Holding KK vs AA: The math of it Quote
09-11-2011 , 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tringlomane
This isn't exactly right Sherman because of card removal effects. Also you have confused the 9 and 10 handed scenarios. (.995102)^9 is the 10-handed scenario while (.995102)^8 is the 9-handed scenario since we now have 8 opponents.

How to appropriately calculate the probability is discussed here:

http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/comp35/

So the probability of running into AA when you have KK is:

10-handed: 0.04393
9-handed: 0.03906
Yes. You are correct. I should have used 9 and 8 for the 10 and 9 handed tables respectively. Wasn't thinking.

But you are also right about card removal effects. That is why I said "approximately" ;-)
Holding KK vs AA: The math of it Quote
09-13-2011 , 03:08 PM

      
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