Help Needed: Poker River bet equity
12-20-2013
, 10:16 AM
I have played poker for a few years and read many poker books already. I only usually play poker nowadays and dont do much poker study/theory off table anymore. However, I got thinking about something and cant seem to work it out. (I might have misunderstand some concepts or maths here. your help is needed. tq)
A common situation in poker is deciding to call or fold vs a river bet (lets put raising aside for this situation).
Say villain bets pots 100 in to 100.
The equity you need for calling would be = 100/(200+100) = 33.33%
Basically your call amount divided by the total pot after your call. Fairly easy understandable.
So the concept of balance was born base on this simple calculation saying that if I bet pot and bluff 33.33% of the time, my opponent wld be indifferent in calling or folding because both yields zero EV. Right?
Lets make a fictional situation where villain is playing perfectly balance and bluff 33.33% on the river when villain pot size bets.
Knowing this I create a strategy that will check/call 100% of the time on the river with my bluff catchers. Winning 33.33% of the time when villain bluffs and losing the rest, basically breaking even here.
This is usually where the maths stop and I got a little confuse. Say I want to look at things in my villains perspective. What is his EV when I call? Shldnt it be breakeven too, since if i dont lose money he doesnt win any either.
How and what is the formula to show this?
from the ev formula
EV = Fold*POT + Call*(-LV+WH)
Where
L = max lose
W = max win
V = villain equity
H = Hero equity
In this situation villain is calling 100% (note that now we are the player betting and villain is the one calling)
Villains equity is 33.33% and ours is 66.66% (1/3 and 2/3)
I am still a little confuse but I am going to say max lose = 100 and max win = 300. Bet size and total pot size. (values base from my first example)
So EV = -LV+WH (since Fold = 0% and call = 100%)
= -100*1/3+300*2/3 = 500/3
I do have a hunch why there is a big positive ev number there. But I want to make sure I got this right in the first place. Anybody can show that this is wrong? or can explain why this is right?
Tq
A common situation in poker is deciding to call or fold vs a river bet (lets put raising aside for this situation).
Say villain bets pots 100 in to 100.
The equity you need for calling would be = 100/(200+100) = 33.33%
Basically your call amount divided by the total pot after your call. Fairly easy understandable.
So the concept of balance was born base on this simple calculation saying that if I bet pot and bluff 33.33% of the time, my opponent wld be indifferent in calling or folding because both yields zero EV. Right?
Lets make a fictional situation where villain is playing perfectly balance and bluff 33.33% on the river when villain pot size bets.
Knowing this I create a strategy that will check/call 100% of the time on the river with my bluff catchers. Winning 33.33% of the time when villain bluffs and losing the rest, basically breaking even here.
This is usually where the maths stop and I got a little confuse. Say I want to look at things in my villains perspective. What is his EV when I call? Shldnt it be breakeven too, since if i dont lose money he doesnt win any either.
How and what is the formula to show this?
from the ev formula
EV = Fold*POT + Call*(-LV+WH)
Where
L = max lose
W = max win
V = villain equity
H = Hero equity
In this situation villain is calling 100% (note that now we are the player betting and villain is the one calling)
Villains equity is 33.33% and ours is 66.66% (1/3 and 2/3)
I am still a little confuse but I am going to say max lose = 100 and max win = 300. Bet size and total pot size. (values base from my first example)
So EV = -LV+WH (since Fold = 0% and call = 100%)
= -100*1/3+300*2/3 = 500/3
I do have a hunch why there is a big positive ev number there. But I want to make sure I got this right in the first place. Anybody can show that this is wrong? or can explain why this is right?
Tq
