Ok. Here is what I get as a final result using the data you provided:
Code:
Event p(event) Event EV Weighted
Both Fold 0.888196 8500 7549.666
SB Calls Only 0.066232 -23952.20 -1651.200188
BB Calls Only 0.043804 -17038.10 -767.457031
Both Call 0.001768 -26455.875 -46.773987
Total EV 5084.234794
I think some of your numbers might be a bit off.
For the event probabilities do the following:
Everyone folds: p(SB Folds)*p(BB Folds)
Only SB Calls: p(SB Calls)*p(BB Folds | SB Calls)*
Only BB Calls: p(SB Folds)*p(BB Calls)
Both Call: p(SB Calls)*p(BB Calls | SB Calls)*
*You already provided this number as .026.
That should result in the event probabilities I have listed above.
Forgetting that for a moment, what happens when they both fold? You win the $2000 SB + $4000 BB + $500*5 antes = $8500.
What happens when the SB calls? Based on your numbers, the SB must have at least 50K. I am going to use this equation:
Net = Pot*Equity - Risk
In this situation you risk $50,000 and if called the pot will be $106,500 (50K from you, 50K from him, 4000 BB + 2500 antes). You have .24458 equity in this pot, giving you an outcome of $26047.77. Now if we subtract what you risked to get that amount of the pot, we see 26047.77 - 50000 = -$23952.20. (Note: Our pot size disagrees by $1k. I'm not sure why).
So I put that number in the chart.
What happens when the BB only calls you? Based on your information, he must only have 35,000. So our risk can only be 35K. If called, the pot will be 35000*2 + 2000 + 2500 = 74,500. Of which we have .2411 equity, giving us an outcome of 17961.95. But we risked 35000 to get it, so 17961.95 - 35000 = -$17,038.10. So I put that in the chart.
What happens when they both call? Based on your information the pot will be Your 50K + SBs 50K + BBs + 35K + 2500 antes for a total of 137500. Your equity in this spot is .17123 for an outcome of 23544.13. If we subtract your risk we get a net of -26455.90. So put that in the chart.
Now we simply weight each of these 4 possible outcomes by the probability of the event occurring in the first place to get the weighted values, and then we add the weighted values up to get the total EV of $5170.153.
I suspect the reason we have different pot totals has to do with how you are counting antes. I am assuming your stack sizes are AFTER the antes have gone into the pot, but not the blinds. It appears as if you are counting the antes as part of the stack sizes when a/i, thus making a slight difference in the total pot size. In any case, it doesn't make a huge difference in the final EV analysis.
Somehow your weightings are wrong though, which is why your calculation for Total EV does not match mine. But yes, this is a +EV spot either way. Good for greater than 1/2 BB.
However, if this is the FT bubble, ICM considerations might come into play as another poster said. However, ICM considerations are often of more import when deciding to call all ins rather than deciding to shove. I suspect that this play is very much +cEV and probably even more largely +$EV.
