The probability is 1/16 up to that exact point in both games. This ignores everything in the future making you re-draw or anything in the past that had previously made you re-draw. OP was probably looking for the completed version though since he specified 5 participants which makes it not 1/16.

You really think that multiple people can draw the same name? Lol.

In my first post I mentioned that I agreed that the second model was probably what the OP was looking for since it fits the rules more. I was just explaining why you and housenuts were disagreeing. Nothing more.


Under housenut's premise, no one is confronted with the possibility of drawing one's own name. The most logical setup is the one I posted which allows for multiple name grabbing from other people. Otherwise there must be redraws.

You assume you can draw your own name sometimes, but have to redraw in that situation and consider it invalid. You must keep doing this process until everyone has a different name than their own.


Both scenarios may vary from the OP's intended rules in some way. But the OP's post was paradoxical and vague anyway. Since he hasn't really commented back, it looks like he found what he was looking for.



It could be possible that I am wrong about housenut's thinking and that he was only doing something similar to what I put in my second post. That is an immediate probability of just the two players drawing and not the whole group drawing. The OP specified 5 people drawing so this is probably not what he was looking for, but that's not really my point.

My thread was moved and I sort of lost it out of sight after reading housenuts answer. Thanks for the answers and help though, I was surprised to see it with so many replies.