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Counting is hard Counting is hard

02-10-2024 , 06:32 AM
I'm posting a problem I have the solution to, and understand why that solution makes sense. What I don't understand is why an alternate method doesn't arrive at the same correct answer.

Problem: You have 10 marbles: 4 red. 3 green, 2 white, 1 purple. If you grab 5 marbles, how many combinations have at least 1 white marble?

The solution: There's 10C5 = 252 combos of 5, and 8C5 = 56 combos with no white marbles. So taking the total combos minus the 0-white combos = 196. Makes sense, but why does the following not also work:

Scenario A with 2 whites pre-chosen: 8C3 = 56. Scenario B with 1 white pre-chosen: 8C4 = 70. (I discard the second white here to avoid double-counting with Scenario A, so we still have 8 marbles we are choosing from, and need to choose 4 to combine with the 1 white).

But 56 + 70 doesn't equal 196 so I am sad, what is the flaw in the second method?
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02-10-2024 , 08:52 AM
You have to multiply the 8C4 by 2C1. You're not double-counting anything by doing that.

Double-counting would be if you said 5(2/10), in which case you'd need to subtract the overlap (aka inclusion-exclusion):
5(2/10)–(8C3)/(10C5) = 7/9

Btw (8C3)/(10C5) is the same as (5C2)/(10C2), which can be thought of as, the 2 white marbles need to be within the 5 selected ones, out of a possible 10C2 places. Or it can be thought of as, with only 2 selections the chance would be 1/(10C2) but with 5 selections there are 5C2 times as many mutually exclusive chances for it to happen.
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02-12-2024 , 06:04 PM
Your second scenario only counts half of the combos with one white marble. There are indeed 70 combos of four non-white marbles. There are two choices of white marble; imagine putting a 1 on one and a 2 on the other so you can distinguish them. For each of the 70 combos we can choose either W1 or W2, so there are 140 total combos
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